On Target: David Johnson is 2016's No. 1 Pick

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Updated on December 31, 2015 9:29AM EST

It's been a long journey, full of injuries, terrible coaching decisions, perplexing performances and both good and bad calls. After 16 weeks, we have reached the end of the fantasy football and have the morning after, named Week 17, left. Rather than focusing on specific matchups for this week, I want to analyze some things we have learned this year from our target data.

Total Targets
(Click to sort)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YARDS	TDS
Julio Jones	192	127	1722	8
DeAndre Hopkins	180	104	1433	11
Antonio Brown	176	123	1654	9
Demaryius Thomas	168	100	1187	5
Brandon Marshall	157	101	1376	13
Jarvis Landry	156	105	1087	4
Odell Beckham	151	91	1400	13
Allen Robinson	143	76	1296	14
Larry Fitzgerald	139	103	1160	8
Mike Evans	139	70	1112	3
Michael Crabtree	139	82	888	8
Calvin Johnson	134	78	1077	8
Emmanuel Sanders	129	71	1036	6
T.Y. Hilton	127	65	1080	5
A.J. Green	126	81	1227	9
Amari Cooper	125	70	1062	6
Brandin Cooks	123	79	1116	9
Eric Decker	123	75	977	11
Greg Olsen	122	75	1088	7
Golden Tate	122	86	779	6
Randall Cobb	121	73	792	6
Jeremy Maclin	120	84	1034	7
Delanie Walker	119	85	994	6
Jordan Matthews	119	78	943	6
Travis Benjamin	114	63	913	5
Kamar Aiken	114	70	868	5
Rob Gronkowski	113	70	1158	11
Gary Barnidge	112	71	977	9
Jordan Reed	110	83	907	11
Pierre Garcon

Total Targets
(Click to sort)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YARDS	TDS
Julio Jones	192	127	1722	8
DeAndre Hopkins	180	104	1433	11
Antonio Brown	176	123	1654	9
Demaryius Thomas	168	100	1187	5
Brandon Marshall	157	101	1376	13
Jarvis Landry	156	105	1087	4
Odell Beckham	151	91	1400	13
Allen Robinson	143	76	1296	14
Larry Fitzgerald	139	103	1160	8
Mike Evans	139	70	1112	3
Michael Crabtree	139	82	888	8
Calvin Johnson	134	78	1077	8
Emmanuel Sanders	129	71	1036	6
T.Y. Hilton	127	65	1080	5
A.J. Green	126	81	1227	9
Amari Cooper	125	70	1062	6
Brandin Cooks	123	79	1116	9
Eric Decker	123	75	977	11
Greg Olsen	122	75	1088	7
Golden Tate	122	86	779	6
Randall Cobb	121	73	792	6
Jeremy Maclin	120	84	1034	7
Delanie Walker	119	85	994	6
Jordan Matthews	119	78	943	6
Travis Benjamin	114	63	913	5
Kamar Aiken	114	70	868	5
Rob Gronkowski	113	70	1158	11
Gary Barnidge	112	71	977	9
Jordan Reed	110	83	907	11
Pierre Garcon	107	69	728	5
Donte Moncrief	103	63	735	6
Anquan Boldin	103	64	718	3
Zach Ertz	103	66	701	2
Allen Hurns	101	62	1013	10
Travis Kelce	101	71	865	5
Ben Watson	100	68	766	5
Marvin Jones	98	60	778	4
Willie Snead	97	65	942	3
Ted Ginn	97	44	739	10
Doug Baldwin	96	73	1023	14
Jason Witten	96	71	655	2
Danny Woodhead	95	72	704	6
Alshon Jeffery	94	54	807	4
Theo Riddick	94	76	668	3
Devonta Freeman	93	71	560	2
Nate Washington	91	46	652	4
John Brown	90	61	958	7
Martavis Bryant	89	49	765	6
Keenan Allen	89	67	725	4
Julian Edelman	88	61	692	7
Davante Adams	88	46	441	1
James Jones	86	46	788	8
Michael Floyd	85	51	833	6
Terrance Williams	84	44	667	3
Rueben Randle	83	53	722	7
Danny Amendola	83	63	631	3
Stefon Diggs	81	50	687	4
Sammy Watkins	80	49	911	9
Antonio Gates	80	53	596	4
Robert Woods	80	47	552	3
Martellus Bennett	80	53	439	3
Darren Sproles	80	52	368	1
Tavon Austin	79	47	443	5
Charles Clay	77	51	528	3
Brian Hartline	77	46	523	2
Heath Miller	77	57	517	1
Richard Rodgers	77	51	467	7
Coby Fleener	77	47	403	2
Owen Daniels	76	45	502	3
Jacob Tamme	75	55	596	1
Cecil Shorts	75	42	484	2
Julius Thomas	75	44	443	5
Markus Wheaton	74	41	692	4
Jimmy Graham	74	48	605	2
Steve Smith	73	46	670	3
Shane Vereen	73	53	423	4
Kyle Rudolph	72	49	495	5
Dez Bryant	72	31	401	3
Jamison Crowder	71	54	522	1
Jared Cook	71	39	481	0
Andre Johnson	71	37	457	3
Tyler Eifert	70	48	564	12
Brandon LaFell	70	35	508	0
Harry Douglas	70	34	392	2
Mike Wallace	69	38	451	2
Cole Beasley	68	47	483	3
Kenny Britt	67	33	600	3
Malcom Floyd	67	30	561	3
Marques Colston	67	45	520	4
Duke Johnson	66	58	500	2
Roddy White	66	42	496	1
Jordan Cameron	66	33	380	2
Jermaine Kearse	65	46	651	4
Tyler Lockett	65	49	628	6
Steve Johnson	65	45	497	3
Eric Ebron	63	42	512	4
Giovani Bernard	63	48	460	0
Ladarius Green	63	37	429	4
Bilal Powell	63	47	388	2
Vincent Jackson	62	33	543	3
Rishard Matthews	61	43	662	4
Dorial Green-Beckham	61	30	528	3
Kendall Wright	60	36	408	3
Mark Ingram	60	50	405	0
Charles Sims	59	42	487	5
Kenny Stills	58	26	429	3
Vernon Davis	58	38	395	0
Dontrelle Inman	57	32	461	3
Dwayne Harris	57	36	396	4
Chris Hogan	56	35	448	2
Lamar Miller	55	46	394	2
Quinton Patton	55	29	361	1
Matt Forte	55	41	355	2
Devin Funchess	55	24	353	4
Torrey Smith	54	28	602	4
Will Tye	54	37	397	2
DeMarco Murray	54	44	322	1
Kyle Juszczyk	54	39	303	3
Frank Gore	54	34	267	1
Seth Roberts	52	29	460	5
Jerricho Cotchery	52	37	433	2
Javorius Allen	52	39	311	2
Marquess Wilson	51	28	464	1
Albert Wilson	51	32	427	2
James White	51	38	347	4
Dion Lewis	50	36	388	2
James Starks	50	40	374	3
Chris Givens	50	20	353	1
LeSean McCoy	50	32	292	2
Eddie Royal	50	37	238	1

Red Zone Touchdown Percentage
(Click to sort)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YDS	RZ TDS	RZ TD%
Tyler Eifert	16	12	106	11	69
Allen Robinson	22	15	109	12	55
Seth Roberts	10	6	65	5	50
Richard Rodgers	13	9	30	6	46
Jordan Reed	22	15	128	10	45
Allen Hurns	14	9	73	6	43
Donte Moncrief	12	8	58	5	42
Doug Baldwin	17	10	119	7	41
Larry Fitzgerald	17	12	71	7	41
Gary Barnidge	20	9	82	8	40
Jeremy Maclin	15	12	79	6	40
Kamar Aiken	10	6	46	4	40
Tavon Austin	10	4	46	4	40
Brandon Marshall	23	13	115	9	39
Calvin Johnson	18	11	85	7	39
John Brown	16	10	97	6	38
Rob Gronkowski	19	11	57	7	37
Devin Funchess	11	4	46	4	36
Shane Vereen	11	8	36	4	36
Eric Decker	28	12	75	10	36
Danny Woodhead	17	11	97	6	35
A.J. Green	17	8	74	6	35
Golden Tate	17	11	39	6	35
Antonio Brown	21	15	91	7	33
Pierre Garcon	15	8	55	5	33
Travis Kelce	12	6	58	4	33
Antonio Gates	12	5	53	4	33
Odell Beckham	19	13	101	6	32
Ben Watson	16	10	83	5	31
Steve Johnson	10	7	57	3	30
Danny Amendola	10	8	54	3	30
Julius Thomas	10	5	29	3	30
Julian Edelman	17	11	82	5	29
Delanie Walker	14	11	88	4	29
Rueben Randle	11	6	55	3	27
Owen Daniels	11	5	27	3	27
Kyle Rudolph	11	4	19	3	27
DeAndre Hopkins	27	15	149	7	26
Randall Cobb	20	9	47	5	25
James Jones	12	3	22	3	25
Julio Jones	21	12	79	5	24
Jordan Matthews	13	8	67	3	23
Vincent Jackson	13	5	53	3	23
Martavis Bryant	13	5	51	3	23
Dez Bryant	13	4	48	3	23
Greg Olsen	18	10	85	4	22
Cole Beasley	14	8	54	3	21
James Starks	10	7	57	2	20
Jerricho Cotchery	10	6	49	2	20
Matt Forte	10	6	37	2	20
Jason Witten	10	6	35	2	20
Michael Floyd	10	4	25	2	20
Alshon Jeffery	16	6	76	3	19
T.Y. Hilton	16	8	62	3	19
Coby Fleener	11	6	29	2	18
Marvin Jones	12	7	58	2	17
Nate Washington	12	5	33	2	17
Anquan Boldin	19	10	96	3	16
Devonta Freeman	13	8	65	2	15
Jordan Cameron	13	5	51	2	15
Brian Hartline	13	8	48	2	15
Markus Wheaton	13	6	36	2	15
Michael Crabtree	13	3	18	2	15
Demaryius Thomas	20	11	87	3	15
Theo Riddick	14	11	77	2	14
Jarvis Landry	22	12	79	3	14
Mike Evans	15	3	27	2	13
Javorius Allen	10	7	53	1	10
Bryan Walters	11	5	43	1	09
Terrance Williams	11	3	33	1	09
Eddie Royal	11	7	31	1	09
Heath Miller	12	7	56	1	08
Travis Benjamin	12	5	32	1	08
Davante Adams	13	6	34	1	08

What Did We Learn?

While I normally hate this form of analysis, I have a list of things we learned about pass catchers this season and what we can do that with that in 2016.

• The Packers sorely miss Jordy Nelson. This was the worst season of Aaron Rodgers' career, and Davante Adams just posted the least efficient WR season that we may ever see. He went 1 for 13 in the red zone! I think Nelson is actually going to be discounted next season because the Packers offense was so bad in 2015, but he is one of the main cogs that makes the engine go. Aaron Rodgers is still amazing and can make every throw, but when his weapons are the overrated Randall Cobb, horrible Davante Adams and an assortment of below average JAGs, it doesn't matter.

•Jordan Reed is the second-best tight end in football and should slot in next year where Jimmy Graham has typically gone during the Rob Gronkowski area. Reed dominated targets, red-zone targets and receiving targets for Washington, and with Kirk Cousins likely extended in the offseason, 2016 likely will be more of the same for Reed.

•Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall just had the most amazing WR tandem season in recent history. They actually outpaced every other WR combo in NFL history in terms of both scoring in the same game as they each had a receiving touchdown in eight games. The Jets passing offense was very narrow, especially in the red zone. Decker leads the NFL in RZ targets through 16 weeks and Marshall only trails him by five targets. Both will be discounted again next year because Decker is always discounted and people have an inherent bias against Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jets. My suspicion is that Decker's ADP will again be in the seventh round or later and that Marshall will fall somewhere around the fourth round, making both a value.

• This isn't technically a wide receiver take, but David Johnson gets so many targets as a starting RB that I'm shoehorning him in here. He is the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts next year, assuming that Chris Johnson doesn't re-sign with the team. He's been so radically efficient (15 touchdowns in 15 games) as both a runner and receiver, I can't imagine not taking the best running back on the No. 1 offense in the league with the 1.01 in 2016.

• The top overall wide receiver in 2016? Odell Beckham. He doesn't have the same target/reception volume as Antonio Brown, Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins but he is the most efficient on a per target basis. I think there are logical arguments for Brown and Hopkins volume and hope for an improved ATL offense in 2016, but Beckham is going to be my guy at that spot. His 13 touchdowns in 14 games, 151 targets, 15.3 yards per receptions are elite numbers, and the pace that ODB is on put's him on a Moss-like trajectory. I'm not betting against a player who is making history every time he steps on the field.