FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks, CHC vs. MIL ($7,300): The Brewers continue to be ranked in the bottom half of the majors in multiple offensive categories, including batting average (.235, eighth-lowest) and strikeouts (178, fifth-highest). Hendricks has been part of a Cubs staff that owns the third-best ERA in the majors (2.56) through 33 games, and he's scored 27 to 41 fantasy points in three of his last four starts. While the Cardinals got to him a bit in his last outing, Hendricks has the benefit of facing a team on his home turf against whom he should be able to rack up some whiffs. He's also enjoyed success at Wrigley over his brief career, generating a 2.93 ERA over 132 innings of work in his home park.

Catcher

Victor Martinez, DET vs. OAK (2,600): Martinez is downright bargain-priced relative to his upside and recent production. He's hitting .500 (4-for-8) over his last two games with a double, a homer, two RBI and two runs scored. Those performances have netted 15 and 21 fantasy points, respectively, and Martinez could be primed for more against lefty Rich Hill. Over a small sample this season, Martinez is already mashing southpaws to the tune of a .421 wOBA and .286 ISO in 17 plate appearances, and owned a .375 wOBA over 98 trips to the batter's box against them in 2015. Meanwhile, Hill has struggled against right-handed hitting in the early going, surrendering a .357 wOBA over a 64-batter sample.

First Base

Kendrys Morales, KAN at LAA ($2,900): To be clear, Miguel Cabrera ($3,400) is certainly a great play in this spot at his price and is coming off a 51-fantasy point explosion on Monday night. However, with his ownership levels sure to see an appreciable boost, we turn to Morales as a likely heavily under-owned pivot. There's probably plenty of reasons on the surface to overlook him, as he's been in the midst of a lackluster six-game stretch consisting of two games with zero fantasy points, and four others with single-digit outputs. He's also bucked his career-long trend of crushing right-handers in the early going, managing a forgettable .245 wOBA over 60 plate appearances against them. However, this is one of those instances where we'll rely on larger samples and history to eventually prevail. Morales owns a stellar .350 wOBA and .206 ISO against righties, and 106 of his 134 career homers have come against them. Those figures don't just consist of ancient history either, as he posted an outstanding .385 wOBA and .254 ISO with 18 of his 22 homers against that handedness just last season. He draws Jered Weaver, who's given up a whopping .453 wOBA to left-handed hitters so far this season over a 27-batter sample, and against whom Morales owns a .571 average (8-for-14) with a double, a homer, an RBI and three walks over his career.

Second Base

Chase Utley, LOS vs. MIA ($2,900): We turn to another veteran at second base, as the resurgent Utley has decimated right-handed pitching so far this season. He's tallied a .393 wOBA over 64 plate appearances against that handedness in 2016, and has posted a .367 wOBA versus righties over his 13-plus major league seasons, along with 168 of his 236 career homers. Left-handed hitters have also punished Tom Koehler to the tune of a .453 wOBA over a 37-batter sample in 2016, and a .332 wOBA over 94.1 innings last season. He's also struggled on the road over the course his career, generating an ERA almost a run higher (4.51) than at home (3.72), and surrendering an appreciably higher wOBA (.334) than in his home park (.311). To top it off, Utley has also found frequent success against Koehler in their prior meetings, hitting .400 (6-for-15), with two doubles, a homer and six RBI.

Third Base

Matt Duffy, SFG vs. SDP ($2,500): Duffy hasn't made a lot of long-ball noise yet this season, which might make his contributions seem less impressive overall. However, a closer look reveals a player that's been producing at a steady clip, certainly above his current price point. He's hit safely in six of his last seven, with multi-hit efforts in four of those contests. Although he's uncharacteristically struggled somewhat against righties in the early going, his larger sample from his first full major league campaign in 2015 would seem to point to an eventual ascension back to the mean. The conditions might be ripe for a resurgence against James Shields, who's been touched up by right-handed hitting for a .347 wOBA and three homers over a 57-batter sample in 2016. He's faced 12 of those right-handed bats on the road, and has notably yielded a .550 wOBA. Meanwhile, Duffy amassed a .348 wOBA in 2015 against righties over a 456-plate appearance sample, along with nine of his 12 homers.

Shortstop

Eduardo Nunez, MIN vs. CLE ($2,800): Nunez's bat cooled off somewhat Monday, when he only managed a walk in four trips to the plate, but he'd hit safely in eight of the previous nine games. That span included four multi-hit efforts, helping the veteran shortstop slash a .404/.453/.489 line through his first 47 at-bats this season. He's played almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, amassing a .454 wOBA, and a 36.8 percent hard contact rate when facing them at home. That follows a 139-plate appearance sample in 2015 where Nunez mashed righties to the tune of a .351 wOBA. Considering Nunez's success and Chase Anderson's own ineptitude against right-handed hitters this season, he's probably the last guy the Indians starter wants to see. Anderson has been lit up for a .466 wOBA and three homers over a 56-batter sample against right-handers in 2016, and a .352 wOBA and 23 homers over the course of his two-plus major league seasons.

Outfield

J.D. Martinez, DET vs. OAK ($3,200): The Tigers slugger makes for a nice value mini-stack with Victor Martinez ($2,600) and potentially Miguel Cabrera ($3,400) versus A's starter Rich Hill. Recent struggles have brought Martinez's price down to a very reasonable level for a player of his upside. He's been homerless for the last seven games, but has still punished left-handed pitching to the tune of a .464 wOBA and .294 ISO over a 19-plate appearance sample in 2016. Those aren't fluky numbers either, as evidenced by the .385 wOBA that he tallied in 2015 against southpaws, and the .369 career figure he owns against them over 561 plate appearances.

Oswaldo Arcia, MIN vs. CLE ($2,600): Arcia is making solid contact this season, particularly against righties. He's hit all three of his homers against that handedness this season, amassing a 44.4 percent hard contact rate in the process. His success holds up when taking a longer view as well, as he's managed a .349 wOBA, .238 ISO and 33 of his 39 career homers against righties. He's also managed double-digit fantasy point outings in four of his last seven games, scoring 15 to 24 fantasy points in those contests.

Josh Reddick, OAK at DET ($3,400): Reddick has amassed a .334 wOBA, .195 ISO and 67 career homers against right-handed pitching, and is even better in 2016. He's managed a .401 w0BA against righties over a 61-plate appearance sample, and a .444 wOBA on the road against righties in 38 PAs. All four of his homers have been generated against them as well, with three of those coming away from his cavernous home park. Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey is already getting punished by left-handed hitting in 2016, yielding a .536 wOBA over 35 batters faced. His career numbers support the ineptitude revealed by this year's early results, as Pelfrey has surrendered a .350 wOBA and 66 homers to left-handed bats over 10-plus major league seasons.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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