Max Scherzer, WAS at PHI ($10,700): Scherzer has allowed four or more runs on four different occasions this year. Interestingly, Scherzerís fastball velocity has averaged less than 94 mph on just five occasions, including all four of those four-plus ER outings. The velocity on his fastball appears to be directly correlated with his successful outings, so it stands to reason that seeing where the velocity on his fastball is sitting in the first couple of innings will be a decent predictor of what to expect. On the whole, the season has been up-and-down for Max with an uncharacteristic ERA of 4.05, but an xFIP sitting at 3.36 and an even better SIERA of 3.11 paints a picture of an ERA due to drop as the season continues Ė well, as long as the fastball velocity stays over 94 mph. The Phillies own the third-worst wRC+ against righties in the MLB with a slightly above average K-rate of 21.5 percent.
Chris Iannetta, SEA at SDP ($2,200): With a 1.65 ERA through his first three starts with the Padres, southpaw Christian Friedrich may look like the next former Rockie to find success once leaving the pitching hellhole known as Coors Field. The sabermetrics indicate that this isnít the case as he has a 5.18 xFIP and 5.53 SIERA. The southpaw has allowed a .376 wOBA and 4.51 xFIP against right-handed bats during his career. Despite extreme struggles against righties this season, Iannetta has crushed lefties to the tune of a .388 wOBA and 152 wRC+. In fact, a strong split against lefties has been present throughout the entire decade of his career with a .375 wOBA and 133 wRC+. A cold stretch with a .105 wOBA over the past 10 days has resulted in this extremely low price on Iannetta, but the lefty matchup creates great value in Iannettaís bat at the reduced price.
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS at PHI ($3,600): Adam Morgan has allowed a .356 wOBA and 5.20 xFIP to right-handed bats in his time in the MLB. Zimmermanís career wOBA of .386 and wRC+ of 139 against lefties showcase the favorable matchup. Itís also worth talking about the fast improvement Zimmerman made after carrying a .272 wOBA in April, moving up to a good .362 wOBA in the month of May.
DJ LeMahieu, COL vs. CIN ($3,500): The over/under on this game sits at 11 and the Rockies are a sharp -182 upon the writing of this article. That gives them an implied run total over six. Reasonably-priced exposure to such an offense is highly recommended. Opposing southpaw John Lamb has a poor 6.85 ERA on the season and the bullpen behind him isnít any better. LeMahieu has actually been an above park-neutral hitter so far this season with a 109 wRC+ in addition to a handful of stolen bases.
Nolan Arenado, COL vs. CIN ($4,400): With two home runs last night, his yearlong total is now up to 16. $4,400 isnít exactly cheap, but considering Arenado comes in as the number one hitter on a number of projection systems (including Rotowireís) and is fourth in salary, the price actually stands as a great value.
Adeiny Hechavarria, MIA vs. PIT ($2,300): If Hechavarria ends up in the leadoff spot against Jon Niese, the 8.5 over/under with which Vegas has tagged this game indicates potential value and a high number of plate appearances for the shortstop. The bat has been a bit cold this season, but his career split against southpaws is respectable for the position at a 91 wRC+.
Jayson Werth, WAS at PHI ($3,300): Apparently worthless against right-handed pitching now, the complete opposite must be said about Werthís lefty crushing this season. Werth is sporting a .488 wOBA and 210 wRC+ against southpaws on the season.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL vs. CIN ($4,100): It's often viewed as a no-no to take Gonzalez against lefties, but targeting him against Lamb is not without validity. In now over 70 innings in the majors, the southpaw has struggled much more against fellow lefties than righties, allowing an unsightly .441 wOBA and 5.82 xFIP. Even if these splits are a product of a small sample size and due to normalize towards a more traditional split, the Rockies figure to get to Lamb rather quickly and exploit a Reds bullpen that has allowed a 6.76 ERA this season (yes, 6.76) that ranks a full 1.56 points worse than the next-worst bullpen in the majors.
Hyun Soo Kim, BAL vs. BOS ($2,500): The Orioles have been careful in their use of the Korean import after a shaky spring training, but he now sporting a .408 wOBA and 160 wRC+. Kim looks like heíll grab the majority of starts against right-handed pitchers. Outside of the game in Coors Field, Baltimore is home to the highest over/under on the night with a 9.5, making Kimís spot in the batting order (likely the two-hole) all the more valuable. The splits arenít as drastic on Joe Kelly's career, but he's allowed a 6.09 xFIP against lefties this season.