This article is part of our Survivor series.
(You can click here for an explanation as to why looking not only at risk but also reward is essential to long-term success in survivor.)
Let's take a look a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDSKINS | Browns | 28.60% | 355 | 78.02% | 6.29 |
| BENGALS | Dolphins | 26.60% | 310 | 75.61% | 6.49 |
| CARDINALS | Rams | 23.20% | 365 | 78.49% | 4.99 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 7.60% | 207.5 | 67.48% | 2.47 |
| STEELERS | Chiefs | 3.70% | 225 | 69.23% | 1.14 |
| Broncos | BUCCANEERS | 2.30% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.92 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 1.60% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.48 |
| VIKINGS | Giants | 1.60% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.52 |
| Lions | BEARS | 1.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.58 |
| Cowboys | 49ERS | 0.90% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.38 |
| CHARGERS | Saints | 0.60% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.21 |
| RAVENS | Raiders | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.23 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Looking at the percentage owned numbers and Vegas odds, the two possibilities are the Cardinals and Patriots. The Cards are lower owned than the Bengals and Redskins and slightly more likely to win. The Patriots are much lower owned and as likely to win as any other team besides the top
(You can click here for an explanation as to why looking not only at risk but also reward is essential to long-term success in survivor.)
Let's take a look a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDSKINS | Browns | 28.60% | 355 | 78.02% | 6.29 |
| BENGALS | Dolphins | 26.60% | 310 | 75.61% | 6.49 |
| CARDINALS | Rams | 23.20% | 365 | 78.49% | 4.99 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 7.60% | 207.5 | 67.48% | 2.47 |
| STEELERS | Chiefs | 3.70% | 225 | 69.23% | 1.14 |
| Broncos | BUCCANEERS | 2.30% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.92 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 1.60% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.48 |
| VIKINGS | Giants | 1.60% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.52 |
| Lions | BEARS | 1.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.58 |
| Cowboys | 49ERS | 0.90% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.38 |
| CHARGERS | Saints | 0.60% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.21 |
| RAVENS | Raiders | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.23 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Looking at the percentage owned numbers and Vegas odds, the two possibilities are the Cardinals and Patriots. The Cards are lower owned than the Bengals and Redskins and slightly more likely to win. The Patriots are much lower owned and as likely to win as any other team besides the top three.
Let's look at the respective risks: A Cardinals win/Patriots loss is 78.49 * 30.3 = 23.78 percent. A Patriots win/Cardinals loss is 69.7 * 21.51 = 14.99 percent. The ratio of 23.78 to 14.99 = 1.59. That's your risk ratio.
For the reward, let's assume our standard 100-person, $10 buy-in pool. If the Cardinals lose/Patriots win, 23 people go down with Arizona and another 20 on other teams, leaving 57 people alive - $1000/57 = $17.54.
If the Patriots lose and Cardinals win, 20 people go down on other teams, and two people lose with the Patriots, leaving 78 still standing - 1000/78 = $12.82.
The reward ratio is $17.54/12.82 = 1.37. By these numbers the Cardinals are the best choice.
My Picks
1. Arizona Cardinals
They played poorly in Buffalo, but now they're back home where they annihilated the Bucs two weeks ago and draw a offensively-challenged Rams team. The Rams are tough up front, though, and the Cardinals had trouble protecting Carson Palmer last week. I give the Cardinals a 78 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
They were lit up by Trevor Siemian last week, but I expect them to bounce back facing a Dolphins team who lucked into a win off a short week. Moreover, the Bengals should move the ball against a weak Miami secondary. I give the Bengals a 76 percent chance to win this game.
3. Washington Redskins
The Redskins should handle the Browns at home, but Hue Jackson's team has shown up the last two weeks and could easily be 2-1. I don't trust Kirk Cousins, but as long as he plays passably, it's hard to see Cleveland keeping pace. I give the Redskins a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
New England Patriots - I used them for the comparison in the write-up because Arizona beat Cincinnati and Washington on both metrics (odds and ownership), and the Patriots' ownership was far lower. But the math showed New England's lower ownership reward wasn't enough to offset the risk of a backup QB and likely limited Rob Gronkowski against a division rival.
Houston Texans - Brock Osweiler was exposed as a mediocre quarterback, and with J.J. Watt out, this might not be an above average defense, either.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Chiefs are a tough team, and the Steelers were out of sync last week.
Minnesota Vikings - The Giants have a puncher's chance, and the Vikings offense hasn't had to do much yet, i.e., it's unclear what they have in the absence of the defense scoring points for them.
