This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Browns | 36.20% | 400 | 80.00% |
| PACKERS | Bears | 34.90% | 330 | 76.74% |
| FALCONS | Chargers | 10.70% | 260 | 72.22% |
| BRONCOS | Texans | 9.00% | 315 | 75.90% |
| CHIEFS | Saints | 3.90% | 255 | 71.83% |
| Patriots | STEELERS | 2.80% | 290 | 74.36% |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Around this time of year the polling data gets a little noisier as different people have used up different teams and have different choices available. Moreover, re-buy, second chance and two-strike pools make more of an impact in the overall numbers. As such, the precise math is less important than the general principles of cross-optimizing survival chances and payout. So rather than walk through all the calculations, going forward I'll usually just allude to both variables and make my picks. By now, I have a rough sense of what the numbers would come out to anyway.
Finally, I've been setting my own lines for Beating the Book, and while I'll still use the Vegas money lines for purposes of the chart above, I'm more inclined to use my subjective leans when making my weekly picks.
This week, the Vegas lines/polling data would have the choice between the Bengals and Broncos, the
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Browns | 36.20% | 400 | 80.00% |
| PACKERS | Bears | 34.90% | 330 | 76.74% |
| FALCONS | Chargers | 10.70% | 260 | 72.22% |
| BRONCOS | Texans | 9.00% | 315 | 75.90% |
| CHIEFS | Saints | 3.90% | 255 | 71.83% |
| Patriots | STEELERS | 2.80% | 290 | 74.36% |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Around this time of year the polling data gets a little noisier as different people have used up different teams and have different choices available. Moreover, re-buy, second chance and two-strike pools make more of an impact in the overall numbers. As such, the precise math is less important than the general principles of cross-optimizing survival chances and payout. So rather than walk through all the calculations, going forward I'll usually just allude to both variables and make my picks. By now, I have a rough sense of what the numbers would come out to anyway.
Finally, I've been setting my own lines for Beating the Book, and while I'll still use the Vegas money lines for purposes of the chart above, I'm more inclined to use my subjective leans when making my weekly picks.
This week, the Vegas lines/polling data would have the choice between the Bengals and Broncos, the former being most likely to win at 80 percent, the latter being only four percent less and far less owned. If we were to run the numbers, I'm pretty sure the Broncos would come out narrowly ahead.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
This is a bit out of the box by Vegas' standards, but I made this a 7.5-point line, and only four percent of people are on them. The Saints have arguably the worst defense in the league, and Drew Brees is merely an average quarterback on the road. I give Kansas City a 76 percent chance to win this game.
2. Denver Broncos
This game makes me a little nervous because the Texans aren't bad defensively, and in a low-scoring contest one or two big plays can turn a game. That said, the Broncos have had 10 days to get ready and should destroy their former QB Brock Osweiler at home. I give the Broncos a 76 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The payoff isn't great since they're 36 percent owned, but they should handle one of the league's doormats at home. I give the Bengals an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
I don't love this setup as Pittsburgh is a tough place to play, and the Steelers will show up for this one. Still, Bill Belichick's team doesn't have many letdowns, and his defenses are tough on inexperienced quarterbacks. I give the Patriots a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Green Bay Packers - I think they'll win at home, but given how poorly Aaron Rodgers and the offense is playing, their lack of a running game, the loss of their best corner Sam Shields and their 35-percent ownership, I'll pass.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are for real after great showings in two of the toughest NFL venues, but this could be a letdown game, and the Chargers are dangerous.
