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The Saber's Edge: Analyzing PA Projections

Jeff Zimmerman

Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He also handles scouting and reporting for PrepBaseballReport.com and contributes to RoyalsReview.com, FanGraphs.com and BaseballHeatMaps.com. Jeff is also a two time FSWA award winner, including the 2016 Football Writer of the Year award.

Playing time influences all of a hitter's stats, but it is probably one of the least understood. An extra 100 plate appearances is equivalent to about a month of playing time. We currently project Alex Gordon to make 521 plate appearances, but he could easily surpass 600 like he did for four straight seasons (2011 to 2014) if he remains healthy. What are his chances of beating the projection? This week, I will investigate plate-appearance projection accuracy and any advantages gained from that information.

I chose Steamer's historic projections as a test group. One data anomaly I found immediately was that the ...

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