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Daily Fantasy Basketball 101: Consistency and Value 2.0

Michael Rathburn

Michael Rathburn

Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. He was also nominated by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for Best Baseball Series in 2011.


Last week, I covered how to win on DraftKings and how to find value inside the data. This week, I tackle DraftStreet which is a much different site because of three facotrs. First, DraftStreet has “tight” salaries. Their algorithm updates quickly and is heavily weighted on the most recent performance making it much harder to find value plays. Second, DraftStreet takes into account field-goal and free-throw percentage, which daily players refer to as “efficiency” scoring. Lastly, the roster format is favorable because you can play three guards, three forwards, one center, and one utility. This means you can avoid risky shooting guards.

The importance of hitting on your “Blue Chip” stocks is the key to winning in daily fantasy basketball. Another factor is identifying the most consistent players on a nightly basis. Expanding on my original research, I dug into when a player presents value either home or road, along with their consistency.

You can see that a player’s salary isn’t going to differ much whether at home or on the road, but I needed to calculate those in order to create the value measurement. This formula takes fantasy points per game/salary*1000. On DraftStreet, your value target for top-tier players should be at least 2x. The value report for each player shows each time a player hits value and for how much. This will show who are the most consistent players, and also the players who have the highest ceiling.


Each player will have their salary (home/road), average fantasy points per game (home/road), value (fantasy points per game/salary*1000), value report (how many games they hit for value and at what multiplier), consistency report (percentage of time hitting 2x or greater), ceiling report (salary at time of hitting 50 FPPG or higher), and notes.

Here are the top players to consider in daily fantasy basketball on DraftStreet.

Kevin Durant

Home Avg Salary $22270; Avg FPPG 47.5; 2.14 Value
Road Avg Salary $22579; Avg FPPG 42.2; 1.88 Value

Value Report – 3.5x (1), 2.5x (9), 2x(17), 1.5x(18), 1x (8), 0x (1)
Production Report (FPPG) – 70 (1), 60 (5), 50 (11), 40 (18), 30 (15), 20 (3), 10 (1)
Consistency Report - 27/54 games 2x or greater = 50 percent
Ceiling Report – 17/54 games 50 FPPG or greater = 31 percent

-- Among Durant's worst games, 14 out of 18 were on the road. Of Durant's best games, 13 our of 19 were at home.

Kevin Love

Home Avg Salary $22321; Avg FPPG 43; Value 1.95
Road Avg Salary $22152; Avg FPPG 42; Value 1.93

Value Report – 3x (1), 2.5x (5), 2x(18), 1.5x(18), 1x (7), 0x (1)
Production Report (FPPG) - 70 (1), 60 (1), 50 (7), 40 (24), 30 (12), 20 (4), 10 (1)
Consistency Report - 24/50 games 2x or greater = 48 percent
Ceiling Report – 9/50 games 50 FPPG or greater = 18 percent

-- Unlike on DraftKings, Love isn't a better play than Durant due to the latter's huge ceiling. There was no difference between home/road for Love either.

LeBron James

Home Avg Salary $21651; Avg FPPG 39; 1.82 Value
Road Avg Salary $21591; Avg FPPG 42.5; 1.98 Value

Value Report – 2.5x (6), 2x(14), 1.5x(20), 1x (8), 0x (1)
Production Report (FPPG) – 60 (1), 50 (9), 40 (20), 30 (13), 20 (6), 10 (1)
Consistency Report - 20/49 games 2x or greater = 41 percent
Ceiling Report – 10/49 games 50 FPPG or greater = 20 percent

-- 14 of James' 20 best games were on the road. Like we saw with DraftKings, playing LeBron is a bad move versus other players in the same price range. On DraftStreet, playing him on the road presents the only value.

Stephen Curry

Home Avg Salary $19808; Avg FPPG 37.6; 1.90 Value
Road Avg Salary $18960; Avg FPPG 38.7; 2.06 Value

Value Report – 2.5x (11), 2x(16), 1.5x(13), 1x (7), 0x (3)
Production Report (FPPG) – 50 (10), 40 (12), 30 (17), 20 (8), 10 (3)
Consistency Report - 27/50 games 2x or greater = 54 percent
Ceiling Report – 10/50 games 50 FPPG or greater = 20 percent

-- Looking at Curry versus James, it's a no-brainer to roll with Curry, especially because of the lower salary and higher consistency rating.

Chris Paul

Home Avg Salary $20648; Avg FPPG 39.5; 1.92 Value
Road Avg Salary $20489; Avg FPPG 40.0; 1.97 Value

Value Report – 3.5x (1), 3x(2), 2.5x (1), 2x(10), 1.5x(16), 1x (7)
Production Report (FPPG) – 60 (3), 50 (2), 40 (13), 30 (15), 20 (4)
Consistency Report - 14/37 games 2x or greater = 38 percent
Ceiling Report – 5/37 games 50 FPPG or greater = 13 percent

-- Nothing jumped out on the data with Paul, except that the ceiling was much lower than I expected. But keep in mind his sample size is less because of the injury. Interesting to note how much better Curry is over Paul when you compare the numbers.

DeMarcus Cousins

Home Avg Salary $19059; Avg FPPG 38.9; 2.05 Value
Road Avg Salary $19454; Avg FPPG 37.5; 1.94 Value

Value Report – 2.5x (9), 2x(16), 1.5x(12), 1x (7), 0x (2)
Production Report (FPPG) – 50 (3), 40 (20), 30 (13), 20 (6), 10 (4)
Consistency Report - 25/46 games 2x or greater = 54 percent
Ceiling Report – 3/46 games 50 FPPG or greater = 6 percent

-- Cousins is the quintessential 50/50, heads-up play because his consistency is so high, with a slight edge when he is at home.

Carmelo Anthony

Home Avg Salary $18867; Avg FPPG 39.8; 2.11 Value
Road Avg Salary $18577; Avg FPPG 33.7; 1.83 Value

Value Report – 3.5x (1), 3x(0), 2.5x (5), 2x(15), 1.5x(21), 1x (8)
Production Report (FPPG) – 70 (1), 60 (0), 50 (2), 40 (15), 30 (22), 20 (9), 10 (1)
Consistency Report - 21/50 games 2x or greater = 42 percent
Ceiling Report – 3/50 games 50 FPPG or greater = 6 percent

-- Melo has a limited ceiling, but the 2.11 value at home makes him a great play against teams with a higher pace.

LaMarcus Aldridge

Home Avg Salary $18995; Avg FPPG 38.6; 2.03 Value
Road Avg Salary $19116; Avg FPPG 37.7; 1.99 Value

Value Report – 3.5x(1), 3x(2), 2.5x(6), 2x(19), 1.5x(16), 1x(7), 0x(2)
Production Report (FPPG) – 60 (3), 50 (4), 40 (14), 30 (20), 20 (11), 10 (1)
Consistency Report - 28/53 games 2x or greater = 53 percent
Ceiling Report – 7/53 games 50 FPPG or greater = 13 percent

-- Aldridge has provided great value all year with consistency both home and on the road, but seven of his top eight performances were at home.

Blake Griffin

Home Avg Salary $18510; Avg FPPG 39.5; 2.15 Value
Road Avg Salary $17888; Avg FPPG 35.5; 1.99 Value

Value Report – 3x(2), 2.5x (8), 2x(21), 1.5x(19), 1x (5), 0x (1)
Production Report (FPPG) – 50 (4), 40 (18), 30 (20), 20 (13), 10 (1)
Consistency Report – 31/56 games 2x or greater = 55 percent
Ceiling Report – 4/56 games 50 FPPG or greater = 7 percent

-- DraftStreet's scoring system rewards the stud power forwards, take note of most of them on this list. We know the Clippers play better at home so play Blake in Lob City.

Anthony Davis

Home Avg Salary $19915; Avg FPPG 41.9; 2.13 Value
Road Avg Salary $19875; Avg FPPG 35.0; 1.78 Value

Value Report – 3.5x (1), 3x(2), 2.5x (4), 2x(15), 1.5x(11), 1x (8), 0x (2)
Production Report (FPPG) – 60 (1), 50 (5), 40 (12), 30 (17), 20 (6), 10 (1), 0 (1)
Consistency Report - 23/42 games 2x or greater = 55 percent
Ceiling Report – 6/42 games 50 FPPG or greater = 14 percent

-- Unibrow has one of the best home/road splits on DraftStreet from the top-tier players. 11 out of 14 of his worst games were on the road.

John Wall

Home Avg Salary $17996; Avg FPPG 37.6; 2.11 Value
Road Avg Salary $18237; Avg FPPG 30.3; 1.68 Value

Value Report – 2.5x (10), 2x(15), 1.5x(15), 1x (10), 0x (3)
Production Report (FPPG) – 50 (3), 40 (12), 30 (21), 20 (12), 10 (4), 0(1)
Consistency Report - 25/53 games 2x or greater = 47 percent
Ceiling Report – 3/53 games 50 FPPG or greater = 6 percent

-- NEVER play Wall on the Road!!! 15 out of his worst 21 games were on the road. 15 out of his best 18 games were at home.