This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic: It's not too often that both sides make our defense to avoid an easy choice, but that happens to be the case here. Not only do the Jazz rank second in points allowed, but the Magic rank 30th in scoring. Orlando actually ranks 28th in field goal percentage and 30th in adjusted field goal percentage. That's bad, but it's even scarier considering they face the Jazz in this matchup. With Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors back and fully healthy, this is arguably the best defense in the league. While some of the Orlando players are good values with their poor play, it's just difficult to get any of them in your lineup given their recent struggles and terrible matchup.
Offense to Use:
Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings: Portland is coming off their worst game of the season and they should be able to thrive in a matchup against the Kings. Not only does Sacramento have one of the worst defenses in the league, but they'll be playing the second half of a back-to-back set here. That's a nightmare for an NBA team that's on the road and it's even worse when you have to play an offensive force like Portland in their home building. Players like Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are obvious go-to plays, but there's also some sneaky under-the-radar guys like Mason Plumlee and Maurice Harkless as well.
Teams on Back-to-Back Set:
First Game: Celtics, Clippers, Jazz,
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic: It's not too often that both sides make our defense to avoid an easy choice, but that happens to be the case here. Not only do the Jazz rank second in points allowed, but the Magic rank 30th in scoring. Orlando actually ranks 28th in field goal percentage and 30th in adjusted field goal percentage. That's bad, but it's even scarier considering they face the Jazz in this matchup. With Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors back and fully healthy, this is arguably the best defense in the league. While some of the Orlando players are good values with their poor play, it's just difficult to get any of them in your lineup given their recent struggles and terrible matchup.
Offense to Use:
Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings: Portland is coming off their worst game of the season and they should be able to thrive in a matchup against the Kings. Not only does Sacramento have one of the worst defenses in the league, but they'll be playing the second half of a back-to-back set here. That's a nightmare for an NBA team that's on the road and it's even worse when you have to play an offensive force like Portland in their home building. Players like Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are obvious go-to plays, but there's also some sneaky under-the-radar guys like Mason Plumlee and Maurice Harkless as well.
Teams on Back-to-Back Set:
First Game: Celtics, Clippers, Jazz, Knicks, Pacers, Pistons, Raptors, Sixers, Spurs and Wizards
Second Game: Kings
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
Guards:
Premium:
Damian Lillard, POR vs. SAC ($8,700): Lillard has seen his price decrease $900 over the last four games which is causing him to become one heck of a value. The decrease in price doesn't make much sense either, as he scored 38 and 48 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Prior to that, Lillard had been averaging about 50 fantasy points per game and putting up MVP-type numbers. What is most enticing here is the matchup, as he faces a Kings defense that is easily one of the worst in the league. Take advantage of this price drop and use Lillard at an extremely affordable value.
Mid-Tier:
Nicolas Batum, CHA vs. TOR ($6,100): Batum has been slightly disappointing this season, but he's shown some much needed consistency. While he's failed to surpass 37 fantasy points in any game this season, he's scored at least 29 fantasy points in every game but one. He's done that damage while shooting terribly, so it seems likely that he'll get out of this slump and add to his already great peripheral numbers. The matchup is great too, as DraftKings has Toronto ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.
Cheap:
Patty Mills, SAN vs. DET ($4.600): Mills has been filling in as the starting point guard in the absence of Tony Parker and putting up some solid fantasy production. Mills has scored 25 fantasy points or more in two of his three games filling in for Parker and that's great value at $4,600. The minutes is what encourages me most though, as he's averaging 30 minutes a game as the starter. The matchup against Ish Smith is fantastic as well, as the Pistons have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Forwards:
Premium:
Paul George, IND at PHI ($8,100): George hasn't quite played up to the MVP level that he's capable of, but he's coming off one of his best games of the season. PG-13 dropped a 46 fantasy point line Wednesday against the Philadelphia 76ers and he gets to face them yet again here. There's no reason why George can't duplicate that performance or possibly surpass it with his capability to go off on any given night. The price is extremely affordable as well, as he's $3,200 cheaper than Russell Westbrook and $2,100 cheaper than LeBron James. While those are two of the best payers in the game, George can match them on any night and it's silly to think he's that much cheaper than both of them.
Mid-Tier:
Derrick Favors, UTA at ORL ($6,200): The talented power forward has had a slow start as he recovers from injury, but he's finally starting to play a full allotment of minutes. Favors played a season-high 35 minutes in his most recent game and he should be able to match that total from here on out. In that 35-minute outing, Favors double-doubled en route to a 34 fantasy-point game. He now has 78 fantasy points across his last two games and it appears he's finally rounding into form. The price hasn't quite gotten up to his level though, as $6,200 is far too cheap for a player of Favors ability.
Cheap:
Maurice Harkless, POR vs. SAC ($4,600): Harkless has quietly been putting up some solid numbers and the amount of opportunities is hard to pass up. Aside from a blowout in the Blazers' most recent game, Harkless has played at least 32 minutes in six of his last seven games. It's not just empty minutes either, as he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in four of those games. The matchup is the icing on the cake though, as he faces a bad Kings defense that ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to small forwards.
Centers:
Premium:
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC at POR ($10,000): There aren't really many elite centers on this slate, so using a guy like Cousins can put you ahead of the pack. He's the only center on this slate with 60-point upside and he should be able to go to work in a matchup against a weak Portland frontcourt. Cousins has been extremely consistent as well, as he has surpassed 44 fantasy points in seven of nine games this season. The only concern here is that this is the back end of a back-to-back set and it remains to be seen if Cousins can get 35-plus minutes in that circumstance.
Mid-Tier:
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at OKC ($6,600): Jordan hasn't quite lived up to his price this season, but there's reasons to believe he'll start posting bigger stat lines. The biggest reason why he hasn't been posting monster lines is because the Clippers have been too good. In fact, the Clippers have won four straight by a double-digit margin and Jordan, along with the rest of the starters, has been sitting in many of the fourth quarters. With this spread expected to be close, look for Jordan to get a full allotment of minutes in a great matchup. The Thunder play at one of the fastest paces in the league and that sort of pace can benefit an athletic player like Jordan. With Russell Westbrook driving to the basket all game, Jordan could be in for a big block-night as well.
Cheap:
Serge Ibaka, ORL vs UTA ($4,900): Obviously we want to avoid most Orlando players with the prior recommendation, but Ibaka's price has fallen way too far to pass up on him. This is a guy who has been a $7,000 player in the past and the recent form in a new uniform has lowered his price to under $5,000. That sort of price is just too juicy to pass up, considering the sort of upside he has. The minutes aren't a concern either, as he is playing nearly 30 per game. This is the sort of matchup the Magic will need Ibaka to play big minutes too, with Utah owning one of the best frontcourts in the league. While this is a risky, contrarian play, it has very little downside at such an affordable price.
