This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Saturday's four-game evening slate features an interesting mix of contenders, bottom feeders and borderline playoff teams. While matchups are a major component of the value formula, injuries and rotation changes have the potential to play an even larger role. Find out who benefits most from those changes, as well as the rest of the night's top value plays, below:
GUARDS
John Wall, WAS at CLE ($50): Cleveland gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards thanks in part to allowing 23.6 points per game to the position. Wall will likely top that scoring number on his own, especially as he looks to one-up fellow star Kyrie Irving. Many will stay away from Wall after seeing him come up short of 40.0 fantasy points in three of his past four appearances, but this matchup is just what he needs to get back on track.
Chasson Randle, NYK at SA ($10):Ron Baker got the start with Derrick Rose (foot) out Thursday, but it was Randle who produced the most fantasy points at the point guard position in Portland with 19.9 in 19 minutes. The Knicks will likely give the 24-year-old more run as they look to assess his future with the franchise, and he already possesses more upside than Baker given his aggressive scoring nature. Even against the Spurs, the minimum-priced Randle makes for a low-risk, high-reward play if Rose sits.
Guard to Avoid
Kyrie Irving, CLE vs. WAS ($43): Not only is Wall proficient on offense, but his defense has helped Washington restrict point guards to the third-fewest fantasy points point game. Irving managed just 31.8 fantasy points in 44 minutes the last time he faced the Wizards, and will have trouble living up to his $43 price in this rematch. He has come up short of 43.0 fantasy points in four of his past five appearances, so don't expect Irving to suddenly improve in this tough matchup.
FORWARDS
Kristaps Porzingis, NYK at SA ($31): Porzingis was New York's leading scorer with Rose and Carmelo Anthony (knee) out Thursday, and the barren roster around him when both sit suggests he's likely to repeat that feat again. The unicorn has averaged 37.5 fantasy points per game over his past six appearances, showing that he's more than capable of providing excellent value even when one or two of the other Knicks stars play. With relatively few alternatives available in this slate, Porzingis' increased usage rate makes him well worth his $31 price regardless of opponent.
Gorgui Dieng, MIN at POR ($19): Dieng hasn't taken full advantage of his 32 minutes per game over the past five, but this matchup with a Blazers team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards should change that. He has outplayed his $19 price by 5.9 points per contest as is, so even an average performance would result in him being a decent investment.
Forward to Avoid
Serge Ibaka, TOR at DAL ($25): Ibaka has averaged just 20.8 fantasy points per game over his past seven, topping 25.0 only once. Don't expect him to improve against a Mavericks team that has been the second-stingiest against power forwards. Either splurge for a more expensive option or increase flexibility elsewhere by using a cheaper one in a better matchup.
CENTERS
Pau Gasol, SA vs. NY ($19): Gasol possesses elite upside for his price, as evidenced by his two performances of at least 36.8 fantasy points in the past six games. He won't have a better opportunity to realize that upside than in a game against a Knicks team that has allowed the third most fantasy points and second most PPG to centers. The minimal risk associated with the veteran Spaniard's $19 price pales in comparison to the likely reward.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. MIN ($30): Nurkic has averaged 36.7 fantasy points per contest over his past five, and he comes into this one riding a career-best, three-game double-double streak. The lack of quality big men on Portland's roster has allowed him to rack up 30 minutes per game in that stretch, and their star-studded backcourt ensures the former Nugget avoids double teams. Even against a Timberwolves team that has been better than average at defending centers, Nurkic's recent success and increasing playing time makes him too tempting to pass up.
Center to Avoid
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at DAL ($16): Valanciunas is unlikely to find success Saturday for a variety of reasons. Not only is Dallas a top-10 defensive team against centers, but the Lithuanian big man's shortcomings on the defensive end and inability to guard on the perimeter make him a nightmare matchup against Dirk Nowitzki's floor-stretching style. Given that Valanciunas has come up short of 25 minutes on the floor in seven consecutive contests and failed to top 12.6 fantasy points in either of his past two appearances, using him in such a poor matchup makes no sense.
