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According to the Data: Do Injuries Offer Value in Fantasy Football?

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Do Injuries Offer Value in Fantasy Football?

There's no doubt 2012 was the year of the comeback player in the NFL. After suffering major knee injuries in 2011, running backs Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson combined for over 3,600 rushing yards and 19 total touchdowns. "All Day" Peterson's 2,000-yard performance was so sensational that it has many pondering the limits of the human body. And how could we forget about the Comeback Player of the Year - Mr. Peyton Manning? Even his biggest supporters couldn't have envisioned a 4,659-yard, 37-touchdown season.

For every big-name comeback story, however, there was a disappointment as well. Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray, and Fred Jackson were all unable to overcome their injury demons; all of them finished at least 19 spots below their preseason ADPs.

Prior to the season, McFadden and Murray were actually both players I targeted. I got lucky that neither player ended up on more than one of my teams,

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