The NFL news cycle doesn't have many down periods, but we do have a bit of a lull in June, with the draft and first round of OTAs completed, while training camp remains nearly two months away.
Of course, that hasn't stopped me from expending a borderline-unhealthy amount of my brainpower on the NFL, especially with things in full gear at RotoWire as we start to work on our Football Magazine that will be available on newsstands (and for free to subscribers) later this summer.
With one shameless plug out of the way, I basically have no choice but to double down -- My twitter account (@RotowireNFL_JD) is strictly used for NFL news+musings, with a heavy emphasis on stuff that is useful for fantasy owners. Sure, it's a little bit early, but following me on twitter is one way to gain an edge on the competition.
Anyway, let's get back to business, which today will be decidedly un-businesslike, as I'm basically just spewing my random fantasy-related thoughts in the direction of anyone who cares (or doesn't) to listen.
1) I didn't play season-long NFL fantasy last year, instead opting to focus on DFS. While that did work out from a purely financial perspective, there's no way I'm going two years in a row without having at least one fantasy team. I don't care if I have to sacrifice friends, family, health, meals, working out, bathroom trips or anything else; I'm absolutely playing in at least one season-long fantasy league, and probably 3-4. It's fun.
2) I really want to get involved in a dynasty league, but between full-time DFS and multiple season-long leagues, I don't want a demanding dynasty league that requires monitoring multiple times/week. Anybody know of a league that has transactions monthly instead of weekly, or maybe a "best-ball" league that doesn't allow in-season transactions and just uses an optimal lineup made from the guys on your roster?
3) I'm not a fan of 100-yard (or 300-yard) bonuses, not a fan of any scoring that isn't full PPR, and DEFINITELY NOT a fan of having to pick a kicker in DFS. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but probably get about 80% of my action on DK, which I think would be perfect if the bonuses were either eliminated, reduced (award one point instead of three) or had the threshold raised (maybe to 150/400 yards?).
4) I bet you're wondering which Week 1 DFS stacks I'm already excited about. Since you asked, I have my eye on Bradford/Wentz-Ertz (vs CLE), Rivers-Allen (at KC), Winston-Evans (at ATL), Brees-Snead (vs OAK), Wilson-Baldwin/Lockett (vs MIA) and Luck/Moncrief-Hilton (vs DET).
I often roster a WR/TE from my stack's opponent, hoping that it will be a high-scoring game on both sides, which will keep my QB-receiver combo active through the fourth quarter. After all, it's no fun when your 2-man stack has 40 DK points at halftime and finishes with 45.
I Like Kelce as an addition to the Rivers-Allen stack. Like Julio (DUH) with Winston-Evans. Maybe Amari Cooper (or Crabtree) as an addition to the Brees-Snead stack. Definitely Marvin Jones/Golden Tate as an addition to the Luck-Moncrief/Hilton stack.
I realize it's a bit early to be worrying about this, but I think we should frame it as 'dedication' rather than 'addiction.
Anyway, here's an early list of players that I expect to have a lot of shares of this year -- both for season-long fantasy leagues and for the first few weeks of DFS. I'll be writing about most of these guys in more detail at some point between now and Week 1:
QB Marcus Mariota - The Titans want to establish a power run game, but do they have a defense that will allow them to do so? I think not, which should mean plenty of chances for Mariota to put the offense on his back. Given his wheels and improved weapons, he's a perfect high-upside target in the late rounds of drafts. He'll also be on a lot of my DFS squads.
QB Tom Brady - probably not for Weeks 1-4 DFS, but otherwise set for a huuuuuge year. Chris Hogan-Martellus Bennett-Nate Washington is a better free-agent haul than you think. I think we can officially forget the name 'Aaron Dobson', if we haven't already
RB Jamaal Charles - Maybe not a great DFS target, but he could be available in the late teens or 20s in drafts, and by Week 1 he'll be 11 months removed from the torn ACL.
RB Karlos Williams - Good line. Scrambling QB. Run-heavy offense. Excelled with limited chances as a rookie. Elite athleticism. LeSean McCoy is old and has struggled with health/quickness the past two years. If Williams ever takes over the job, there's high-end RB1 upside.
RB Jerick McKinnon - Could see more snaps as 'Sota look to throw the ball a bit more often, given that Peterson usually comes off the field when they spread things out. If A.D. gets hurt, McKinnon could step in as an every-down workhorse and potential RB1. He and K. Williams are 'handcuffs' that you can eagerly target even if you didn't draft the starter.
WR Mike Evans - Famous Jameis is at least decent, and quite possibly a star in the making. Evans is very good, still very young (23 in August), and TB's other pass-game options are either over the hill (VJax) or entirely unproven (ASJ). Evans could push 200 targets if he plays 16 games, and he could push 1,800 yards if he pushes 200 targets. Sure, I'm being wildly optimistic, but even my real projection of 90-1400-11 (15 games) makes Evans a steal at his current ADP in the late teens to early 20s. I rank him as a mid-WR1, right there with Allen Robinson and A.J. Green.
WRs T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief - Andrew Luck is healthy and the Colts don't have many other weapons (finally). They also don't appear to have a great defense, nor a strong running game. Luck should have a huge season, and I don't think Dwayne Allen or Phillip Dorsett will be leading the way. It wouldn't be crazy to draft all three of Luck, Hilton and Moncrief for the same fantasy team. Yes, the bye week would be rough, but it can also be planned for. I think all 3 players are undervalued at the moment, though training camp hype could change that.
TE Zach Ertz - In a real thing that actually happened, Ertz caught 35 passes for 450 yards over the final four weeks of last season. The Eagles may not have a great QB situation, but they also don't have much skill-position talent; Ertz is likely their best player on the offensive side.
He's a real candidate to lead all TEs in targets this season, as Delanie Walker is due for a big step back now that his team has real NFL players on offense, and Gronk only needs about 8/game to properly dismantle his opponents' souls. Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen also have increased competition for targets, with their teams adding Josh Doctson and re-adding Kelvin Benjamin, respectively. Coby Fleener, now of the Saints, is a dark-horse candidate for the TE target lead, but I've never been impressed with his real-life skillset -- he's visibly scared to get hit over the middle and doesn't have reliable hands. Then again, Jimmy Graham faced the same criticisms at times, yet still managed to post historic numbers while working with Drew Brees.
