Alex Smith, KC at OAK ($6,800) – Smith has a great matchup this week against the Raiders, who arguably have had the worst pass defense in the league. They’ve given up the second-worst YPA (8.8) and have easily given up the most passing yards per game at 331 per. Smith is at a quality price checking in under $7K and has some weapons with Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Pairing those three up in a GPP would allow for a lot of money to be used at running back and the other wide receiver spots.
Case Keenum, LA at DET ($6,500) – This is really an outside-of-the-box pick considering Keenum has done nothing outside of his 18.04 fantasy-point game in Arizona. This week shapes up nicely for Keenum as the Lions have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The key here is that the Lions have given up those points without giving up a lot on the ground (64 rushing yards, zero touchdowns). This is a game that could shape up nicely for Tavon Austin or Kenny Britt as well. Don’t go here in cash games, but in tourneys this is a decent option.
Christine Michael, SEA vs ATL ($7,400) – This isn’t a cheap price as Michael checks in as the eighth highest running back. That being said, it seems like he should be priced higher given his output over the last two games. He's been the clear starter during those two contests without Thomas Rawls , scoring 17.5 and 24.1 fantasy points. The subpar first two games in which he shared touches with Rawls have likely helped keep his price depressed. Atlanta has given up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and playing their second game on the road across the country can’t help.
Ryan Mathews, PHI at WAS ($6,500) – This will probably be the lone time I suggest Mathews all season given his injury woes and the crowded backfield the Eagles have. It’s tough to tell who to trust on the Eagles but it’s worth noting that Mathews has 14, 16 and 13.7 fantasy points in games when he wasn't playing hurt. The matchup against the Redskins is ideal here as they’ve given up a league-worst 5.1 YPC and are tied for the most rushing touchdowns conceded with eight. Going back to the well with Zach Ertz ($5,400) isn’t a bad idea here either.
Julian Edelman, NE vs CIN ($7,200) – This is a little pricey for a wide receiver this week but it makes for a nice contrarian play in GPPs. After last week’s performance, DFS owners are going to flock to Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett and even Chris Hogan. That will leave Edelman with a low ownership for a player who’s been PPR gold with Tom Brady. Look for Edelman to bounce back from his 5-35 performance this week.
Kamar Aiken, BAL at NYG ($5,200) – Last week Adam Thielen and Cameron Meredith broke out in their respective No. 2 wide receiver roles and Aiken is in a similar position this week. Steve Smith should miss this week’s game with an ankle injury, which will line up Aiken the opposite of Mike Wallace. Aiken had a productive final second half of the season as Joe Flacco’s main target and the Giants are giving up 262 passing yards per game this season.
Charles Clay, BUF vs SF ($5,300) – While the results haven’t been fantastic, the Bills have kept their word in getting Clay more involved the last two games by giving him 12 targets. Those targets have led to 10 catches for 120 yards but no end zone celebrations. There’s a good chance that will change this week with the Bills being 8.5 point favorites at home. Clay is a better red zone target than Robert Woods, and with limited options, he should be targeted by Tyrod Taylor a lot this weekend. Teammate LeSean McCoy ($8,200) is a very chalky play in this game who should take advantage of a NaVorro Bowman-less defense.
Wil Lutz, NO vs CAR ($4,500) – The 5-for-8 field goal mark isn’t great but there’s a lot working in his favor this weekend. This is slated to be the highest-scoring game of the week and Lutz has averaged 8.0 fantasy points per game. Drew Brees has always played better at home, a path that should lead to points for Lutz Sunday.
Tennessee Titans vs CLE ($4,700) – Each week, it’s a good idea to target whoever is playing the Browns and this weekend it happens to be the Titans. As usual, the Titans are playing in a game that has a low over/under suggesting Cleveland isn’t going to score a lot of points. Both Cody Kessler and Josh McCown are banged up, helping the situation even more.