With a solid Thursday slate for the holiday I will list picks for both Turkey day as well as Sunday. Enjoy the holiday and the long weekend.
Scott Tolzien, IND vs. PIT ($5,000): There are a few factors working in Tolzien's favor this week and it starts with the price. The gamble is that Tolzien finds his way to about 15 fantasy points, likely making him the best value of any quarterback on the slate. To put that in perspective, quarterbacks like Dak Prescott ($8,000) or Ben Roethlisberger ($8,500), would have to eclipse 23-25 fantasy points (above average for both players this season) to be the same value dollar per dollar. Tolzien has the weapons to put up stats, considering the receiving corps, and home-field advantage in a dome should help him, as well. The price puts him in play in both cash and GPPs.
Rob Kelley, WAS at DAL ($5,700): His lack of production from earlier this season is likely keeping the price suppressed as he's scored double-digit fantasy points in his last three games. Kelley has received a huge workload with at least 21 carries in each of those games. The Dallas run defense hasn't been great this season, giving up 4.2 yards per carry (21st in the league), and the Redskinsí offense has scored 27, 26 and 42 points in its last three games. Look for Kelley to get enough volume to make value, especially in the game with the highest over/under for the day.
Jamison Crowder, WAS at DAL ($6,300); Cole Beasley DAL vs. WAS ($6,400): I'm putting these two together this week as they face each other and both have established respectable floors. Crowder has now scored double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last nine games while Beasley has scored the same in seven of his 10. Again, this is supposed to be the highest-scoring game of the day, making both interesting options if you think stacking the game works.
Kyle Rudolph, MIN at DET ($5,300): Rudolph's ownership should be down this week after a paltry 2.2 fantasy point performance. A closer look shows that last week's opponent, the Cardinals, has been the best team against the tight end this season. An even closer look shows that Rudolph actually scored a touchdown only to see it called back by penalty. This week it'll be much easier sledding against the Lions, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Dan Bailey, DAL vs. WAS ($4,900): With only six options I don't mind paying $400 over the minimum for the guy who's home and indoors. Bailey has only missed once at home this season, way back in Week 3 against Chicago.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit ($4,600): Outside of Theo Riddick it's tough to get excited about anyone these days in the Lions' offense. Marvin Jones has disappeared and Matthew Stafford has gone seven straight game without throwing for 300 yards.
Carson Palmer, ARI at ATL ($7,100): Palmer and the Cardinals head to Atlanta this weekend to take on the Falcons in what should be one of the higher scoring games of the week. Vegas has the over/under at 51, the highest of any game this weekend. Palmer has been good lately, throwing for at least 342 yards in three of his last four games. Being a four-point underdog logic would conclude he'll need another big passing game to keep up with Matt Ryan ($8,700). The discrepancy in prices is what makes Palmer more attractive as straight up he's probably got about a 40 percent chance to score more fantasy points than Ryan. Atlanta comes into the game giving up the most fantasy points (20.7 per game) to quarterbacks as well.
Jeremy Hill, CIN at BAL ($5,900): Hill has disappointed overall this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in only four of 10 games this season. He also has a tough test this week against a Ravens defense that is at home and that only 3.4 yards per carry (fewest in the league). So why consider Hill? First, the price is the lowest it's been all season, and he's scored touchdowns in three of his last four games. The loss of Gio Benard for the season means Hill will get all of the touches he can handle, including an increased role in the passing game. Look for the Bengals to rely heavily on Hill this week, especially without A.J. Green lining up outside.
Malcolm Mitchell, NE at NYJ ($4,500): This is an interesting GPP pick for Sunday, though there are a lot of variables surrounding him and his fantasy value. It was encouraging to see him play more than 85 percent of the snaps last weekend, and he finally had a breakout game with four catches for 98 yards and a score. It's worth noting this production came with both Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski sidelined, but that might be the case against this weekend. Gronk has already been ruled out and with Hogan's status still in the air it could be Mitchell as the best deep threat for Tom Brady. Watch Hogan's status this weekend, though Mitchell will be a tournament play even if he's active.
Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. NYG ($4,800): Barnidge finally found the end zone for the first time this season Sunday, and it wasn't surprise that it took Josh McCown getting back under center to do so. The two displayed excellent chemistry on the field last season, leading to the theory they should be able to do so now. Barnidge's receiving yards are down from a season ago, but his drop in red zone targets (24 to 4) has been more of a hit to his fantasy value. Provided those red-zone targets return this weekend against the Giants (who are a decent matchup for tight ends) Barnidge should easily return value.
Wil Lutz, NO vs. LA ($4,800): I've gone to Lutz multiple times this season and he typically pays off. He's home, in a dome thus eliminating any weather concerns and has been comfortable kicking there. Outside of the game against a tough Broncos defense, Lutz has scored 11, 8, 13 and 16 fantasy points in his four other games in the Superdome.
Buffalo Bill vs. Jacksonville ($4,800): Buffalo heads back home after two weeks on the road in a good spot. Chris Ivory will likely handle the bulk of the carries and has recently had fumbling problems. Blake Bortles is a mess, throwing six picks over his last five games without getting more than a 6.2 YPA in any of games during that time span. The Bill are tied for the league-lead in sacks (31) and are in the top half of the league in interceptions and forced fumbles.