Beat the Cap: Blue Line Blues

Beat the Cap: Blue Line Blues

This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.

Finding fantasy points from defenseman can be difficult. There are a number of obvious factors at play, and a few recent trends in the league make it even more difficult to count on rearguards.

In seasonal leagues, it isn't unheard of to punt a defenseman roster spot at times during the season to roster additional forwards. Wasting bench slots on defensemen is highly unadvised. Yet, in daily contests, our hand is forced; each roster requires two defensemen -- at least.

For years, power-play minutes were the clearest path to fantasy success for defenseman. However, utilizing four forwards with the man advantage is becoming increasingly more common. Obviously game situations can interfere, but currently 22 teams are using just a single defenseman on their top power-play unit.

The impact on defensemen's power-play minutes is substantial, too. Over the past two weeks -- prior to the games Tuesday -- just 72 defensemen averaged 1:30 of power-play time per game during the span, and 32 averaged 2:30 of ice time. In comparison, 195 forwards averaged over 1:30 of power-play time per game during the same time period and 73 averaged at least 2:30.

Looking at the numbers, Mark Giordano leads defensemen with 44 points through 55 games this season, and 25 blue liners have at least 30 points. There are 33 forwards with at least 44 points and 110 with at least 30. While the numbers shouldn't be shocking, it is worth noting the significant comparison gap.

To further highlight the significance of power-play opportunities, John Carlson (26th) and Giordano (33rd) are the only two defensemen in the top-50 even-strength scorers this season. There are only eight other blue liners in the top-100: Brent Burns (53rd), Roman Josi (72nd), Shea Weber (81st), Kris Letang (90th) Tyson Barrie (90th), Alex Pietrangelo (93rd), P.K. Subban (94th), T.J. Bodie (98th) and Aaron Ekblad (100th).

Things become complicated on lightly-scheduled nights, or when the top defensemen land in difficult matchups. It is tough to judge when to spend up for a rearguard -- or two. Is spending up for two high-priced defensemen even a sound option?

The Ebb

There was a time when spending a significant cap hit on a defenseman was difficult to stomach. There are plenty of times when it is unnecessary, too. However, almost every night a defenseman has an outing capable of carrying a daily lineup. I have dubbed them contest-winning performances.

Thursday night was no different. Eight defensemen had multi-point nights, and Weber had a three-point showing. The clientele stretched across the price tiers, which reinforces the viability of both searching for discounts (Oscar Klefbom) and spending up for stars in favorable matchups (Letang).

This entire series has looked at ways to manipulate your lineups to maximize upside. Each strategy should be considered an avenue to the most fantasy points possible. One of those strategies was employing a cheap defenseman, another was targeting underpriced pivots. Roster considerations based on what site you're playing were also covered. None are overarching and nightly go-to blue prints; they're tools to aid against the daily grind.

Generally, when there are fewer games the budget allotted to defenseman is higher because there are fewer options. Still, it is becoming clearer that targeting mid-priced defenseman is a strong strategy, especially in cash games.

Top-tier defensemen are cheaper to begin with -- and they should be -- so fitting second- or third-tier blue liners into your lineups shouldn't handcuff your options elsewhere, especially if you're savvy with a few mid-priced forwards. Ultimately, you want to expose yourself to the potential for as many contest-winning performances as possible throughout your lineup.

While identifying cheap defensemen to spend up elsewhere is still viable, it is difficult to consistently uncover two-point games on the cheap. It is more likely you're removing upside and replacing it with the hope of a player returning a fantasy point or two. Every strategy works, as long as you select the right players, but in the long run nickel and diming any position will catch up.

Over the past week, my best FanDuel lineups have allocated an average of 16.8 percent ($9,200 to $9,300) of cap space to defensemen. The DraftKings lineups averaged 17.4 percent ($8,600 to $8,700) of cap space allotted to defensemen. DraftKings is higher because the cap is lower, and because their settings make it more difficult to roster cheaper defensemen because of their scoring settings.

The Flow

Here are four players to keep tabs on this week, including a defensemen poised to return to the top tier. They should carry below-average salaries while providing plus-returns.

G John Gibson

His tenure may be short lived, but as long as he is receiving starts, Gibson is golden. The Ducks have two upcoming home games against Eastern conference teams, too. He is ready for the NHL grind.

RW Drew Stafford

Linemates Mark Scheifele and Mathieu Perreault were scorching hot before he joined them. This is a nice chance for the pending UFA and former 30-goal scorer to earn a pay day. Stafford is capable.

D Ryan McDonagh

His price is climbing, but there is still profit room, especially in favorable matchups. He was an elite defenseman last season and looks to be putting together his best stretch of the season.

C Sean Monahan

Expect a slump-busting stretch to begin soon. Monahan is too talented to go a prolonged stretch without finding the score sheet. He is basically free on FanDuel, too.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Neil Parker plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: naparker77, DraftKings: naparker77.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Neil Parker
A loyal Cubs, Cowboys and Maple Leafs fan for decades, Neil has contributed to RotoWire since 2014. He previously worked for USA Today Fantasy Sports.
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