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Thursday Daily Puck: Shotty Luck

Dustin Nelson

Dustin Nelson is a writer based out of NYC. His fantasy team is full of loafers.

With goals on Tuesday, Dustin Brown, Martin Hanzal, Erik Karlsson and Ryan McDonagh extracted themselves from a club that no one wants to be a part. They were among the players who had taken the most shots in the league without having scored a goal.

It's a tricky thing to judge sometimes. This kind of slump will happen to players and the decision to stick with them can be tricky. Of course you aren't dropping Erik Karlsson after starting the season with no goals in 14 games, but it's fair to be concerned.

Those guys got theirs, but there are many who still haven't. Here are the players with the most shots and no goals.



There are a couple groups of people there. You're obviously not dropping Ryan Getzlaf. But if your rostered Jakob Silfverberg should you be concerned? How long before you know he'll bounce back but think he won't bounce back enough to make it worth it in the end?

This is all part of being able to use shooting percentage as not a ranking metric but a way of projecting what a guy is going to be able to do going forward. It's important to note that very few players have wild outlier seasons of really high shooting percentage or really low shooting percentage. There's some variance between players, but almost all players are going to finish the season in the general vicinity of their career average shooting percentage.

Historically, that's just how this works.

When Anthony Duclair was shooting over 30% at the start of the season it was a good bet that his hot streak wasn't going to continue. He was getting too many goals for the number of shots he was taking. Meanwhile, it was a good bet that Erik Karlsson, whose career shooting percentage is a pretty tame 7%, was going to score soon after he'd taken 33 shots with a 0% shooting percentage.

Pay attention to shooting percentage, but don't rank players with it. Use it predictively and you'll find yourself able to better make trades and work waivers. Know that Jakub Voracek is probably going to score soon and that Joel Ward -- a 12.1% career shooting, currently shooting 29.6% -- isn't going to keep up this scoring pace unless he wildly increases his under 2 shot per game average.


Projected Goalie Starters (all times Eastern)
For updates on the projected goalies later in the day, check our Projected Goalies Grid

Avalanche (Semyon Varlamov) at Bruins (Tuukka Rask), 7:00 PM
Blues (Jake Allen) at Rangers (Henrik Lundqvist), 7:00 PM
Capitals (Braden Holtby) at Flyers (Steve Mason), 7:00 PM
Wild (Devan Dubnyk) at Hurricanes (Cam Ward), 7:00 PM
Canucks (Ryan Miller) at Senators (Craig Anderson), 7:30 PM
Flames (Karri Ramo) at Lightning (Ben Bishop), 7:30 PM
Sabres (Linus Ullmark) at Panthers (Roberto Luongo), 7:30 PM
Maple Leafs (James Reimer) at Predators (Pekka Rinne), 8:00 PM
Devils (Cory Schneider) at Blackhawks (Corey Crawford), 8:30 PM
Jets (Ondrej Pavelec) at Stars (Antti Niemi), 8:30 PM
Oilers (Anders Nilsson) at Coyotes (Mike Smith), 9:00 PM
Islanders (Jaroslav Halak) at Kings (Jonathan Quick), 10:30 PM

Injury News For Teams Playing Thursday
Colorado Avalanche
Jesse Winchester, LW - Winchester (concussion) has been placed on injured reserve, Marc Moser of AltitudeTV reports. (10/6/2015)
John Mitchell, C - Mitchell (oblique) won't suit up for Tuesday's game against the Flyers, Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports. (11/10/2015)
Alex Tanguay, LW - Tanguay (knee) is expected to miss an "extended period" of time, Tommy Chalk of Fox Sports reports. (11/10/2015)

Boston Bruins
Dennis Seidenberg, D (back) - is back with the team but does not appear ready to return to action.
Chris Kelly, RW (femur fracture) - will miss the rest of the season
Alexander Khokhlachev, C (hand) - is going to miss four-to-six weeks
Torey Krug, D (undisclosed) - had a maintenance day Wednesday
David Pastrnak, LW (foot) - will miss time with a fracture in his foot, the team announced Wednesday

St. Louis Blues
Steve Ott, C (upper body) - is not on the team's road trip
Paul Stastny, C (foot) - remains out
Patrik Berglund, C (shoulder) - is on long-term IR
Jaden Schwartz, LW (ankle) - will continue to be out for quite a while

Washington Capitals
Brooks Orpik, D (lower body) - left Tuesday's game with an injury
Jakub Vrana, RW (wrist) - underwent surgery last week and will miss a significant chunk of time

Philadelphia Flyers
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, C (lower body) - skated Tuesday
Yevgeni Medvedev, D (upper body) - remains out
R.J. Umberger, LW (undisclosed) - missed practice Wednesday for the third day in a row

Minnesota Wild
Zach Parise, LW (knee) - is not traveling with the team on their current road trip
Marco Scandella, D (personal reasons) - missed Tuesday's game against Winnipeg and his status has not been updated
Justin Fontaine, RW (knee) - remains on IR
Tyler Graovac, C (hernia) - will miss at least another five weeks following surgery

Carolina Hurricanes
James Wisniewski, D (ACL) - will miss most of the season

Vancouver Canucks
Brandon Prust, LW (ankle) - remains out
Luca Sbisa, D (undisclosed) - has been on IR since last week

Ottawa Senators
Chris Phillips, D (back) - his status hasn't been updated in a while, but he remains out
Clarke MacArthur, LW (concussion) - won't be on the ice

Calgary Flames
Jonas Hiller, G (hip) - is on IR
Lance Bouma, C (lower body) - will miss another couple months

Tampa Bay Lightning
Ondrej Palat, LW (lower body) - will miss three-to-five weeks
Mitchell Stephens, C (foot) - is out indefinitely

Buffalo Sabres
Cody McCormick, C (illness) - is on IR
Mike Weber, D (lower body) - didn't play Tuesday
Zach Bogosian, D (lower body) - will miss at least the next two games
Evander Kane, LW (MCL) - remains out
Robin Lehner, G (ankle) - is still out with an injury

Florida Panthers
Aleksander Barkov, C (wrist) - is expected to return to practice on Thursday

Toronto Maple Leafs
Stephane Robidas, D (groin) - is without a timetable
Jonathan Bernier, G (lower body) - is expected to return to the lineup on Thursday
Daniel Winnik, LW (lower body) - didn't play Tuesday

Nashville Predators
Carter Hutton, G (upper body) - was placed on IR Tuesday
Eric Nystrom, LW (upper body) - is on IR
Paul Gaustad, C (lower body) - is considered day-to-day and didn't play Tuesday

New Jersey Devils
Patrik Elias, LW (knee) - is skating and making progress, but isn't ready to return
Tuomo Ruutu, LW (foot) - remains out

Chicago Blackhawks
Duncan Keith, D (knee) - has been cleared for contact and may return on Saturday
Ryan Garbutt, RW (illness) - hopes to be available Thursday
Michal Rozsival, D (ankle) - is closing in on a return, but it won't be Thursday

Winnipeg Jets
All healthy

Dallas Stars
Brett Ritchie, RW (wrist) - Is skating in a non-contact jersey
Curtis McKenzie, LW (lower body) - returned to practice Wednesday
Patrick Eaves, RW (lower body) - is close to a return
Travis Moen, LW (upper body) - remains out

Edmonton Oilers
Lauri Korpikoski, LW (head) - is on injured reserve
Matt Hendricks, LW (undisclosed) - is questionable
Justin Schultz, D (back) - remains out
Rob Klinkhammer, LW (lower body) - is still on the shelf
Connor McDavid, C (shoulder) - isn't expected back for a couple months

Arizona Coyotes
Dylan Reese, D (Achilles) - is out indefinitely
Joe Vitale, C (fractured orbital bone) - is out for a while to come
Nicklas Grossmann, D (lower body) - is on IR

New York Islanders
Eric Boulton, LW (lower body) - did not play Tuesday
Thomas Hickey, D (lower body) - is expected to be out another couple weeks
Kirill Petrov, RW (foot) - is expected to miss at least another three weeks

Los Angeles Kings
Dwight King, LW (foot) - is out
Matt Greene, D (upper body) - is still not able to return to practice

Hot
Phil Kessel, RW, PIT It's finally happened. Kessel is becoming the hot dog in Pittsburgh. With an assist in Wednesday's overtime victory against Montreal, Kessel is on a four-game point streak with two goals, three assists, a plus-2 rating and 16 shots in those games. He's also tied for the league-lead in game-winning goals with three. If you have paid the high price to roster him, you can't be too disappointed right now.

Blake Wheeler, RW, WPG Blake Wheeler is a man who just doesn't get much credit for anything outside of Winnipeg. He currently sits at fourth in the league in total points with 19 in 16 games, but you don't hear his name pop up often enough when players having a great season are being discussed. Right now, no matter what format you play, he's producing. He has four points in his last four games with two penalty minutes, a power play goal, an average of nearly four shots per game and he crossed 20 minutes of ice time twice. Wheeler, Wheeler he's our man.

Cold
Chris Kunitz, RW, PIT Kunitz continues to struggle to add points for Pittsburgh. He has just two goals and no assists through 15 games. This is a guy who averaged over a half point per game last season and scored 35 goals the season before. This is an epic drought and it's approaching a point where you just can't trust him. The underlying numbers aren't there either. Last season he averaged 2.3 shots per game. The season before he averaged 2.8 per game. This season he's at just 1.7. Additionally, poor performances are seeing his ice time starting to be limited. The high water mark there in the last seven games is 16:05 and he's been below 15 minutes in four of those games.

Tom Gilbert, D, MTL This isn't under the supposition that Gilbert was going to score 20 goals this year, but he has provided some offense in the past, which could be useful in deep leagues or cap leagues when you're desperate for a cheap option. Gilbert, despite playing for what is arguably the most electrifying team in the league this season, has no points in 17 games. With just 12 shots he's averaging under a shot per game as well. The only bright spot is his plus-7 rating and that's just not enough in most formats.

Recommended Pickup
Leon Draisaitl, C, EDM I know it's been said before, but he's not at 100% ownership and sometimes you just need to humblebrag a bit. A couple of us here at the Daily Puck have said since the moment Connor McDavid went down that Draisaitl needs to be owned. Last night he scored a power play goal and added two assists with a plus-3 rating. Get him. Through six games he has four goals and six assists with an average of over two shots per game. Using our previous discussion, yes, his shooting percentage is too high. But there are a lot of assists coming through and his situation has changed, with better linemates and power play time now a part of the equation. He probably doesn't keep up a point plus per game pace all season, but he's still a good pickup. If you didn't listen last time your down three points from what you would have had if you listened yesterday.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.