DraftKings MMA: UFC 200 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 200 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

UPDATE (7/8): Late Thursday evening, UFC President Dana White confirmed that former middleweight champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva would be stepping in to replace Jon Jones on short notice. The two will fight three rounds at light heavyweight (205 pounds) in a non-championship bout. As of 11:00 AM ET, however, DraftKings does not appear to be including this fight in their UFC 200 contests. Furthermore, Lesnar vs. Hunt will no longer be the main event, as that honor will be given to a women's bantamweight championship matchup between Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes.

UPDATE (7/7): The scheduled main event between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier has been pulled from the card after Jones was flagged for a potential anti-doping policy violation. The heavyweight matchup between Brock Lesnar and Mark Hunt will serve as the new main event. Although the UFC is currently in search of a new opponent for Cormier, the fight will likely be excluded from DraftKings contests.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event - Women's Bantamweight Championship

(C) Miesha Tate (18-5-0) v. Amanda Nunes (12-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Tate ($10,700), Nunes ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Tate (-260), Nunes (+220)

Tate deserves all the credit in the world for her performance that won her the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship from Holly Holm in March. Realizing that Holm's ground game was her largest weaknesses, she remained competitive on the feet until she was able to drag Holm to the mat and choke her out with just 1:30 left. Tate remains no better than an average striker, but she has gotten noticeably better in her three-plus years with the company, and she is an intelligent enough fighter to realize that her greatest strengths lay elsewhere. A lot of what Tate does in the cage is based upon grit, determination and smarts, and while Tate isn't as athletic as some of her opponents, she is very good at tailoring her game plan to whomever she is facing.

Nunes doesn't have the technical striking skills of Holm, but she may have more power. The Brazilian is 5-1 in the UFC, and her only loss came against Cat Zingano in a fight in which she had Zingano badly hurt before she was eventually stopped. It rarely gets talked about because the vast majority of her highlights feature brutal knockouts, but Nunes is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (Tate is only a purple belt). I seriously doubt that she will be interested in getting in a ground battle with Tate, but it has to be reassuring to know that she can hold her own in such a situation. And while Tate has been facing the best 135-pounders in the world for a long time, Nunes has also faced her fair share of talented fighters (Zingano, Germaine de Randamie, Sara McMann, Julia Budd, Alexis Davis, Valentina Shevchenko).

Tate deserves to be the favorite and I think you have to pick her to win, but I think Nunes has a decent chance of winning this fight, far better than both the DraftKings salaries and Vegas odds would indicate.

THE PICK: Tate

Co-Main Event – Heavyweight

Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) v. Mark Hunt (12-10-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Lesnar ($9,000), Hunt ($10,400)
Vegas Odds: Lesnar (+145), Hunt (-165)

The last time that Lesnar competed in an MMA fight was December 30, 2011. The last time that Lesnar won an MMA fight was July 3, 2010. Forgive me, but at age 38, I'm not terribly optimistic that he can make a successful return to the sport after so much time away. Brock reportedly gave serious consideration to returning to the UFC not all that long ago, but he smartly realized that he could make far more money working a limited schedule for the WWE. Brock has never liked getting punched in the face much (not that anyone does), but that seems to be a rather large problem in a fight against Hunt.

Hunt is 3-3-1 in his last seven fights dating back to May 2013, but he has the best chin in the business bar none. If you ever see Mark Hunt get knocked out with one big combination, it is a fluke. For a man his size, Lesnar is a freak athlete. There is no doubt that he doesn't move as well as he used to when he was younger, but if you watched Lesnar at any point during his latest WWE run, you could see that he still retains most of trademark athleticism that made him one of the most popular fighters in the history of combat sports. You would think (or hope) that Lesnar is smart enough not to get into a slugfest with Hunt. Because even if you hit Hunt a dozen times and he only hits you once or twice, you're the one who is likely to hit the canvas, not him.  I imagine that Lesnar will try and grab a hold of Hunt and drag him to the ground, but Hunt's takedown defense has long been underrated, and there are legitimate concerns in regards to how Lesnar will look, especially in the cardio area, after so much time away from the sport.

As long as UFC fans don't take Lesnar's return too seriously and aren't expecting him to make much of an impact, I think his comeback is good for the sport. It will undoubtedly result in far more pay-per-view buys and mainstream media coverage, which is certainly a positive. I would have given Lesnar a halfway decent chance to beat someone like Frank Mir or Shane Carwin, but facing a guy who enjoys getting hit and is nearly impossible to finish is about the worst possible matchup for Brock. If I had to wager, I would guess that Brock loses this fight and we never see him fight in the UFC again. Even if he wins, I'm not sure that Vince McMahon will allow him to do this again, and I'm OK with either of those outcomes. There are plenty of fights on this card (every other one, basically) that feature fighters in the prime of their careers in compelling bouts that will impact the future of MMA. This isn't one of those, but it should still be entertaining.

THE PICK: Hunt

Light Heavyweight

EDIT: Updated by editor Jake Letarski on the morning of 7/8.
Anderson Silva (33-7-0) v. Daniel Cormier (17-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: TBD
Vegas Odds: Silva (+315), Cormier (-410)

Late Wednesday evening, the UFC announced that former middleweight champion Anderson Silva would come to the rescue to salvage a UFC 200 card that had been losing steam fast. Silva apparently turned down a five-round title fight, instead electing to go with a regular three-round matchup. He was already in Las Vegas for the Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony, so the timing worked out for both sides. Silva is coming off gall bladder surgery, but his recovery timeline landed right about at UFC 200 all along. He had been adamant about wanting to fight at this event, but until Thursday, a matchup had simply not materialized. He openly admitted during Thursday's press conference that he has not been training in the traditional sense, and only recently started sparring again.

The real winner here is Cormier and his team, who will almost miraculously still get a payday for the promotion's biggest card. This also works out significantly better for DC, matchup-wise, as he'll have a distinct size advantage in the fight. Silva is well known for his knockout creativity, though, so DC will certainly need to stay on his toes. Since Silva's only real advantage might be speed, Cormier could very well find himself chasing him for much of the contest. If he's able to get a hold of the Spider, and get him in a clinch or take him to the ground, Cormier's size advantage should allow him to maintain complete control. For those reasons, along with the significantly greater knockout power Cormier possesses, our entire MMA staff has picked DC in this fight.

From a DraftKings standpoint, it does not appear that this late addition will be included in contests that have already taken entries. If you're a gambling man (or woman), there's clearly little to profit from betting on DC. However, if you're confident Silva might land a lucky knockout, such as flying knee or something of those sorts, why not take a shot and try to hit it big?

THE PICK: Cormier (by all three of our MMA writers)

Interim Featherweight Championship

Jose Aldo (25-2-0) v. Frankie Edgar (19-4-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Aldo ($9,500), Edgar ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Aldo (-120), Edgar (+100)

This is a stacked card, but this is the fight that I am personally looking forward to the most. It has been nearly seven months since Aldo lost his UFC Featherweight Championship to Conor McGregor in just 13 seconds at UFC 194. He looked tentative and uncomfortable in the days leading up to the McGregor fight and nobody really has any idea how he will rebound from the most devastating loss of his career.

Edgar is currently on a five-fight winning streak, with his last loss coming in his first fight against Aldo in February 2013. The five men that Edgar has defeated during his current winning streak – Chad Mendes, Uriah Faber, Cub Swanson, BJ Penn and Charles Oliveira, represent the best the world has to offer at 145 pounds. Edgar's cardio is elite, something that should benefit him against an opponent in Aldo who has faded in five-round fights in the past. The McGregor fight was the first one in Aldo's UFC career where he wasn't able to constantly pressure his opponent on the feet and unload a countless number of devastating leg kicks. Even at 34 years of age, Edgar has shown no signs of slowing down. He is still as quick as any fighter in the division, especially on the feet. I also think he has more power than Aldo, although Aldo, when he is on his game (which was every single time out prior to the McGregor fight), put together some of the most punishing combinations that you will ever see.

The bottom line here is that these are two evenly matched fighters, two of the best in the world in any division. This comes down to how confident you are in Aldo's ability to bounce back after the worst performance of his career. He looked defeated before the McGregor fight even began and that concerns me. This is arguably the biggest stage in the history of the sport, and Edgar is my choice to win because I have more confidence in his ability to handle the pressure and spotlight. From a strictly fighting and performance point of view, this fight is a pick 'em.

THE PICK: Edgar

Heavyweight

Cain Velasquez (13-2-0) v. Travis Browne (18-3-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Velasquez ($11,200), Browne ($8,200)
Vegas Odds:Velasquez (-275), Browne (+235)

It is going to end up being more than a year between fights by the time Velasquez steps into the cage. Cain hasn't fought since UFC 188 in June 2015, where he was walloped by Fabricio Werdum and lost his UFC Heavyweight Championship. I think a large portion of Cain's struggles that night were due to the fact that he underestimated the effect of the altitude in Mexico City. Most notable was how his cardio betrayed him in the Werdum fight, something that we have never, ever seen from Velasquez in the past.

I am of the opinion that there are only four of five heavyweights on the UFC roster who could realistically be champion, and Browne isn't on that list. He has had some terrific performances in his career (most notably his back-to-back first-round KO wins over Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett), but Browne also has some bad losses mixed in there (Andrei Arlovski, Bigfoot Silva).  Browne is 2-2 in his last four fights. He defeated the since-departed Matt Mitrione in his last fight in January, but it was a struggle. Browne will show flashes of brilliance at times, but he is far too inconsistent for me to label him a legitimate contender. I think we are going to ending up seeing that Velasquez's performance against Werdum was a fluke, and that's not to take anything away from Werdum, he fought a great fight. Still, I think Cain has the most complete skill set of any heavyweight on the UFC roster. I think he bounces back in a big way in this fight, but that's an awfully high salary for any fighter.

THE PICK: Velasquez

Preliminary Bouts


Women's Bantamweight

Cat Zingano (9-1-0) v. Julianna Pena (8-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Zingano ($10,500), Pena ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Zingano (-175), Pena (+155)

Zingano has been on the sidelines for nearly a year and a half since her 14-second loss to Ronda Rousey in February 2014. It was the first and only loss of Zingano's career. She owns wins over Tate, Nunes, and Barb Honchak, among others. Pena also was on the sidelines for about 18 months after a freak training accident resulted in her tearing just about every single ligament in her right knee. She returned in April 2015 and stopped Milana Dudieva in the first round, and then she took a unanimous decision from Jessica Eye in her last fight in October. In both the fights, Pena looked rusty, which is understand coming off such a serious injury. This fight is especially intriguing because these two women are mirror images of each other. They are the same size, both have strong all-around games, and both Zingano and Pena are two of the best athletes in the UFC women's bantamweight division.

This may very well be last call for the 33-year-old Zingano. Although she only has one career loss, that loss came in a title fight, and there are so many talented fighters in this division that a two-fight losing streak may result in an insurmountable climb back to the top for Cat. Pena has far more room for error because she is so young. Zingano has been all but forgotten about since the Rousey fight, but she is easily one of the best bantamweights in the world. And while I like her to win, I think Pena is the far better value play for this fight. There just isn't $1,600 worth of salary separating these two women.

THE PICK: Zingano

Welterweight

Johny Hendricks (17-4-0) v. Kelvin Gastelum (12-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hendricks ($10,100), Gastelum ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Hendricks (-160), Gastelum (+140)

Hendricks is one of the more decorated welterweights in recent memory, but he is somehow 2-3 in his last five fights dating back to November 2013. His last fight, a TKO loss at the hands of Stephen Thompson in February, was particularly concerning. With everyone of the mindset that Hendricks would try and employ a takedown-based offense against Wonderboy, he decided to get into a kickboxing match with the current No. 1 contender, and he paid for it with his consciousness. Hendricks owned his mistake after the fight, which was nice to see, but it doesn't make the result any easier to swallow.

Gastelum has also struggled lately, going 1-2 in his last three bouts. He was suffered split decision losses to Tyron Woodley and Neil Magny, sandwiched around a win against an overmatched and washed up Nate Marquardt. While this is a matchup between two heavy-handed strikers, the winner here could be the man who enters the contest in better shape. Both Hendricks and Gastelum have had problems making weight in the past. Gastelum has missed weight twice in his UFC career, and while Hendricks has never officially missed weight, it has been a struggle for him on numerous occasions to get down to the 171-pound welterweight limit.

This figures to be another close, competitive fight that is difficult to pick. Hendricks has the experience edge having fought in three UFC title fights in his career, but Gastelum, who is eight years younger, has youth on his side. The Thompson fight very well could have been an aberration, but I'm worried about Hendricks and I'm a believer in Gastelum. I'm taking the underdog here.

THE PICK: Gastelum

Bantamweight

T.J. Dillashaw (12-3-0) v. Raphael Assuncao (23-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Dillashaw ($11,300), Assuncao ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Dillashaw (-440), Assuncao (+350)

This fight could easily be the main event of a Fight Night card, but here it is as an afterthought on this massive night. The two men fought back in October 2013, a fight in which Assuncao won via split decision in his native Brazil. Both fighters have improved by leaps and bounds since then.

Dillashaw turned himself from a fringe top-10 fighter to the UFC Bantamweight Champion, and the only reason he lost his belt in January was because he had to face one of the best fighters of the modern generation in Dominick Cruz. Other than Cruz, Dillashaw has by far the best footwork of any fighter in the division. He wins by getting off powerful combinations and by moving out of the way when his opponent returns fire. His two fights against Renan Barao were both perfect examples of how dominant he can be when he is executing his game plan.

Assuncao is currently riding a seven-fight winning streak, but he hasn't fought since October 2014 due to an ankle injury. The injury was originally expected to sideline the Brazilian for about two months, but it never healed properly and he has been out of action for almost 20 months. The winner of this fight could very well end up with the next shot at Cruz's belt. Dillashaw has more power and may be the better wrestler, but Assuncao is going to have a massive advantage on the mat. 10 of Assuncao's 23 career wins are via submission.

It is in T.J's best interest to try to keep this fight standing. Dillashaw is a better fighter than Assuncao at this point in their careers, but it's close. The massive gap between the two in both the DK salaries and Vegas odds is the result of Assuncao's time off. It's entirely possible that the Brazilian would have received a title shot had he been able to stay remotely healthy for the 20 months that he has been away. Dillashaw has spent those 20 months fighting the best 135-pounders in the world, so he deserves to be favored here, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Assuncao finds a way to win. He's a terrific value play at that salary.

THE PICK: Dillashaw

Lightweight

Sage Northcutt (7-1-0) v. Enrique Marin (9-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Northcutt ($11,300), Marin ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Northcutt (-345), Marin (+285)

The Northcutt Hype Train crashed and burned following a submission loss to Bryan Barberena in January, but as I said at the time, that loss means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Northcutt fought three times in a four-month span to begin his UFC career, and he was reportedly under the weather for the Barberena fight. I know he was just 19 years old when those fights took place, and he wants to compete as much as possible, but there is no reason to push your body like that. This will be Marin's second UFC bout after having dropped a split decision to Erick Montano in the TUF: Latin America 2 finale last November. Marin struggled on the feet at times during that fight, something that figures to be a huge issue against an opponent with the explosiveness of Northcutt. If there is one thing that we have learned during Northcutt's brief UFC run, it's that he is an elite athlete. His combination of movement and power is off the charts. Everyone got ahead of himself or herself when they were declaring 19-year-old to be a future champion, but Northcutt is legitimately one of the best prospects in all of MMA. I think he rolls through Marin.

THE PICK: Northcutt

Lightweight

Diego Sanchez (28-8-0) v. Joe Lauzon (24-12-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Sanchez ($9,700), Lauzon ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Sanchez (-105), Lauzon (-115)

Lauzon and Sanchez are both done as far as having fights that impact the lightweight title picture, but boy, this one should be fun to watch. Lauzon has earned six Fight of the Night awards during his UFC career, while Sanchez has racked up seven. Both men have a lot of MMA miles on their bodies, and both fighters have struggled lately; each going 3-4 in their last seven fights. A striking battle figures to greatly favor Sanchez. Diego can take a beating like few men on the UFC roster, and Lauzon's ability to get out of the way of power shots has evaporated entirely. Sanchez is no slouch on the mat, either, but he can't match Lauzon, who has 17 submission wins in his career and is one of the most decorated ground specialists in the history of the lightweight division.  This is the kind of fight that I tend to avoid from a DK perspective – two guys who are heading towards the tail end of their careers, and while both guys appear to have a significant advantage over the other in one particular area (Sanchez: striking, Lauzon: ground game), it's anyone's guess who will be able to put their skills to use. I'm picking Sanchez because I'm terrified of what I've seen from Lauzon on the feet lately, but I don't necessarily feel great about it.

THE PICK: Sanchez

Middleweight

Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2) v. Thiago Santos (13-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Mousasi ($10,300), Santos ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Mousasi (-295), Santos (+235)

This was originally scheduled to be Mousasi v. Derek Brunson, which would have been awesome (I was picking Brunson for the record), but an injury forced Brunson to withdraw, and Santos was one of the few with the guts to take a fighter against the former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion on very short notice. Mousasi is 9-3-1 in his last 13 fights, with those three losses coming against Jacare Souza, Lyoto Machida, and Uriah Hall in a fight in which Hall caught him with one vicious punch that set in motion the sequence that finished the fight. Mousasi's style of fighting is far from exciting to watch, and he has a laid back personality that doesn't draw much interest from casual fans, but the guy is a heck of a fighter. Santos enters this one on a four-fight winning streak, with three of those being vicious first-round KO/TKO stoppage victories. He has a lot of power and little else. Mousasi has generally eaten guys like that alive. He lays back and waits for his opponent to make a mistake and capitalizes. And as good as Santos has been recently, those four wins haven't exactly come against top-flight competition (Marquardt, Elias Theodorou, Steve Bosse, Andy Enz). I doubt it will be pretty, but I think Mousasi is the clear pick here.

THE PICK: Mousasi

Lightweight

Jim Miller (25-8-0, 1NC) v. Takanori Gomi (35-11-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Miller ($10,800), Gomi ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Miller (-245), Gomi (+205)

This may be the most important fight on the card in the sense that the loser is probably going to be handed his walking papers. To say both Miller and Gomi have been dreadful of late would be a massive understatement. Miller has lost two straight and four of his last five, while Gomi has lost two straight and three of his last four. Miller still has an exceptional ground game, but it has gotten to the point that he is so poor on the feet that he has zero chance of winning any fight that isn't a grappling match. Gomi has been knocked out just twice in his 47-fight career, but unfortunately they have come in his last two fights. Thankfully for him, Miller has virtually no power left in his hands (he was never a heavy hitter to begin with). I view this fight almost exactly as I view the Lauzon/Sanchez bout. I expect it to be entertaining, especially with both men most likely fighting for their jobs, but they are both so far past their prime that I don't think you can concretely predict what you will get from either man. Give me Miller to win, but whenever that is the case, the smart play is to stay away from the fight all together if possible, and if not, take the underdog.

THE PICK: Miller

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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