NEWS & ADVICE
February 17, 2014
According to the Data: Home/Road Splits
How much better do fantasy players perform at home?
February 11, 2014
According to the Data: BCS vs. non-BCS for Fantasy
Non-BCS running backs like Matt Forte have excelled for fantasy owners.
January 28, 2014
According to the Data: Rules for Drafting Rookies
Even early-round wide receivers usually don't do much in their rookie seasons
January 21, 2014
According to the Data: 'Questionable' Contributions
Should fantasy owners be nervous about starting players listed as 'questionable' on the injury report?
January 10, 2014
According to the Data: Do Players Drop Off After Signing Big Contracts?
Victor Cruz, who signed an extension during the summer, had a disappointing season before getting hurt in December
December 27, 2013
According to the Data: Should You Target Players in the Monday Night Game?
Despite playing in San Francisco, Tony Gonzalez had a solid showing in Week 16
December 20, 2013
According to the Data: Using Numbers to Predict WR Breakouts
How to spot the next Alshon Jeffery
December 14, 2013
According to the Data: How Does the Temperature Affect Passing Stats?
Jay Cutler and his receivers are in Cleveland Sunday where the temperature should be in the 20's.
December 4, 2013
According to the Data: How to Spot a Future Star Tight End
Why do so many former basketball players excel at tight end? It's the vertical leap.
November 20, 2013
According to the Data: How to Predict a WR Breakout
Projecting targets is the key. Antonio Brown is sixth that department.
November 13, 2013
According to the Data: Predicting Breakout Running Backs
Le'Veon Bell might have the opportunities, but his poor 4.6 40 time and below-average broad jump did not portend efficiency.
November 7, 2013
According to the Data: The No. 1 Factor in Predicting an RB Breakout
Like Zac Stacy, Mike James should benefit from a heavy workload down the stretch.
October 23, 2013
According to the Data: How to Fix Fantasy Football
Losing to a Dallas Cowboys cheerleader who drafted Tom Brady in the first round has got Jonathan Bales thinking about how to improve the game.
October 16, 2013
According to the Data: A Look at Position Scarcity Through Week 6
What positions have the steepest drop-offs?
October 9, 2013
According to the Data: Having Too Many Players on One Team
Jonathan Bales has Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson on his NFFC team
October 2, 2013
According to the Data: Are Offenses Worse in Thursday Games?
Josh Gordon draws a Thursday night matchup against the Bills
September 25, 2013
According to the Data: Running Back Scarcity
There are good reasons why backs like C.J. Spiller were taken in the first round of your draft.
September 18, 2013
According to the Data: Do Older Running Backs Start Faster?
Seattle's Marshawn Lynch is coming off a big game against a tough 49ers defense.
September 11, 2013
According to the Data: When To Pair QB-WR Teammates
Is having Dez Bryant and Tony Romo on the same team a good idea?
September 5, 2013
According to the Data: Don't Worry About Bye Weeks
If you drafted Brandon Marshall (Week 8 bye), that's no reason to pass on Torrey Smith (also Week 8).
August 29, 2013
According to the Data: Comparing Expert PPR Rankings to ADP
The RotoWire experts value C.J. Spiller more highly than the public does.
August 14, 2013
According to the Data: Strength of Schedule - Part 2
How much does it matter that Ray Rice faces the toughest slate of run defenses from 2012?
August 7, 2013
According to the Data: Does Strength of Schedule Matter?
Chris Johnson faces last year's 29th and 30th-ranked run defenses (Colts and Jaguars) twice each and the Cardinals (28th), Chiefs (27th) and Jets (26th).
July 31, 2013
According to the Data: Breaking Down My NFFC Draft
Jonathan Bales takes Trent Richardson at No. 9 overall.
July 26, 2013
According to the Data: Why You Should Wait on Quarterbacks
Top signal callers like Drew Brees were big outliers in 2011, but far less so in other recent seasons.
July 20, 2013
According to the Data: Using History to Craft 2013 Rankings
Running back production drops off most steeply from early to middle rounds of your draft.
July 11, 2013
According to the Data: Comparing Expert Rankings to ADP
Rob Gronkowski's ADP is too high according to RotoWire's composite list.
July 8, 2013
According to the Data: VBD, Baseline Players and Draft Strategy
Value-Based Drafting isn't perfect, but it helps us identify position scarcity.
June 26, 2013
According to the Data: Pass-Catching Backs in PPR Leagues
Darren Sproles' ADP jumps only five spots when switching from standard to PPR leagues.
June 19, 2013
According to the Data: How to Value Quarterbacks in 2-QB Leagues
Michael Vick is roughly equal to David Wilson
June 18, 2013
According to the Data: Predicting Increases and Declines in Running Back YPC for 2013
Darren McFadden should see a substantial efficiency spike this year.
According to the Data: The Best and Worst RB Values In Round 1
Don't expect Marshawn Lynch to repeat his career numbers from 2012.
According to the Data: Using Analytics to Generate Value in Fantasy Football
Jonathan Bales, author of
According to the Data: Visualizing 2012 Value to Help Prepare for 2013
High-Upside receivers like Torrey Smith are typically available in the middle rounds.
May 21, 2013
According to the Data: Breakout Players For 2013
Faster running backs like Ben Tate have the most upside.
According to the Data: The Start of a New Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
What's the No.1 overall slot worth in trade?
April 29, 2013
According to the Data: Using Scarcity to Find Value in 2013 Drafts
Don't be afraid to grab an elite QB at the back end of the first round.
April 20, 2013
According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Wide Receiver
Size matters more than speed when it comes to wide receiver success.
April 11, 2013
According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Tight End
New England's Rob Gronkowski fits the bill.
April 3, 2013
According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Running Back
Running back production skews fast, stocky and young.
According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Quarterback
YPA, not total yards, is the best predictor of future success.
March 20, 2013
According to the Data: Projecting Tight End Production Based on Age
Other than freak-of-nature Tony Gonzalez, tight ends typically have the shortest peaks of any fantasy skill position.
According to the Data: Projecting Wide Receiver Production Based on Age
Why you should take A.J. Green over Calvin Johnson in a keeper league.
March 10, 2013
According to the Data: QB Production By Age
At what point do aging signal-callers like Tom Brady experience decline?
March 3, 2013
According to the Data: Projecting Running Backs Based on Age
Twenty-seven and not 30 is the age where backs start to decline
February 25, 2013
According to the Data: Looking at Early-Year ADP to Determine Value
How February ADP can be a useful tool - even in August.
February 14, 2013
According to the Data: Do Injuries Offer Value in Fantasy Football?
Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles out-earned their draft-day cost. Is that the exception or the rule?
February 11, 2013
According to the Data: QB Success By Height
How Much Does Quarterback Height Affect NFL Performance?
January 31, 2013
According to the Data: How Much Does Speed Matter for Tight Ends?
It certainly doesn't hurt, but it's not as crucial as it is for other offensive skill positions.
January 25, 2013
According to the Data: Wide Receiver Speed Is Important, But Size Matters More
Unlike running backs, wide receivers depend far more on size than on speed
January 17, 2013
According to the Data: Speed Kills For Rookie Running Backs
A RB that runs a 4.4. 40 has a far greater chance of NFL success than one that runs a 4.5.
January 8, 2013
According to the Data: Should You Target Players in Contract Years?
Jonathan Bales does the research.
January 2, 2013
According to the Data: Projecting Second-Year Tight Ends
Who's going to be next year's Kyle Rudolph?
December 27, 2012
According to the Data: How to Project Rookie Quarterbacks
Efficiency stats like YPA are better indicators of future performance than total passing yards.
December 19, 2012
According to the Data: How to Find Value on Second-Year Receivers
Players like Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright should be good values next season.
December 12, 2012
According to the Data: Second-Year Running Backs Offer Potential Value
Daryl Richardson and David Wilson are two to watch for next season
December 5, 2012
According to the Data: Rookie Tight Ends Continue to Struggle
NFL Teams aren't drafting them as early as they once did, and the players are taking longer to get acclimated to the NFL
November 28, 2012
According to the Data: Are Rookie Quarterbacks the New Rookie Running Backs?
Are Andrew Luck, RGIII and Cam Newton rare outliers or part of a continuing trend?
November 21, 2012
According to the Data: Checking in With Rookie Running Backs and Wide Receivers
Rookie RBs typically offer better value than rookie WRs. Jonathan Bales evaluates this year's crop through 11 weeks.
November 14, 2012
According to the Data: Checking in On Preseason Consistency Correlations
Was is really wise to trust top quarterbacks more than top wide receivers on draft day?
November 8, 2012
According to the Data: Breaking Down Quarterback Red-Zone Attempts
Aaron Rodgers actually has had fewer inside-the-10 attempts than one would expect.
October 31, 2012
According to the Data: Midseason Underachieving Studs Offer Value
Cam Newton makes for a good buy-low right now.
October 25, 2012
According to the Data: How Much Do Great Quarterbacks Help Wide Receivers?
Jonathan Bales does the research
October 17, 2012
According to the Data: Are Rushing QBs More Consistent Than Pure Pocket Passers?
Cam Newton, RG III and Michael Vick don't have to rely on big passing numbers to put up fantasy points
October 11, 2012
According to the Data: Pass-Catching Backs Are More Consistent
Backs like LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice are less likely to have bad games than the Adrian Petersons and Michael Turners
October 3, 2012
According to the Data: Is Week-to-Week Consistency an Illusion?
Big-play wideouts like Mike Wallace are actually just as consistent as their more heavily targeted possession-receiving counterparts
September 26, 2012
According to the Data: Who to Target on Waivers Early in the Year
Tight Ends like Kyle Rudolph more reliably deliver starter production than WR or RBs
September 18, 2012
According to the Data: Buy-Low Edition
Darren McFadden hasn't gotten it going on the ground so far, but he will
September 12, 2012
According to the Data: Players You Should Sell High
Jonathan Bales argues now's the time to move Andre Johnson
September 6, 2012
According to the Data: Should You Go RB-RB-RB with Your First Three Picks?
After taking Arian Foster at 1.1, Jonathan Bales went RB-RB on the turn. Was that the right move?
August 29, 2012
According to the Data: Which Draft Slot is Most Valuable - Part 2
Getting stuck in the middle of Round 1 is a tough place to be as you have to settle for less than elite production with your first pick, and a second-rounder that's sub-optimal
August 21, 2012
According to the Data: Which Draft Slot Typically Returns the Most Value?
Players with the highest ADP (like Arian Foster) have averaged 82.7 percent of the fantasy points produced by the year-end No. 1 player at their position.
August 15, 2012
According to the Data: Philip Rivers and Regression Toward the Mean
Rivers is coming off a down year - how much of that should we attribute to bad luck?
August 7, 2012
According to the Data: Why You Should Gamble on Late-Round Rookie Running Backs
Not all rookie running backs pan out, and in fact most (like Mark Ingram pictured above) fail to live up to ADP. But when they do, it's often in a big way which makes them worth a gamble as your draft goes on.
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