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According to the Data

Recent Articles from this Column

According to the Data: At What Age Do Running Backs Decline?

Keith Platte shows the drop off starts earlier than you might think.

According to the Data: Home/Road Splits

How much better do fantasy players perform at home?

According to the Data: BCS vs. non-BCS for Fantasy

Non-BCS running backs like Matt Forte have excelled for fantasy owners.

According to the Data: Rules for Drafting Rookies

Even early-round wide receivers usually don't do much in their rookie seasons

According to the Data: 'Questionable' Contributions

Should fantasy owners be nervous about starting players listed as 'questionable' on the injury report?

According to the Data: Do Players Drop Off After Signing Big Contracts?

Victor Cruz, who signed an extension during the summer, had a disappointing season before getting hurt in December

According to the Data: Should You Target Players in the Monday Night Game?

Despite playing in San Francisco, Tony Gonzalez had a solid showing in Week 16

According to the Data: Using Numbers to Predict WR Breakouts

How to spot the next Alshon Jeffery

According to the Data: How Does the Temperature Affect Passing Stats?

Jay Cutler and his receivers are in Cleveland Sunday where the temperature should be in the 20's.

According to the Data: How to Spot a Future Star Tight End

Why do so many former basketball players excel at tight end? It's the vertical leap.

According to the Data: How to Predict a WR Breakout

Projecting targets is the key. Antonio Brown is sixth that department.

According to the Data: Predicting Breakout Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell might have the opportunities, but his poor 4.6 40 time and below-average broad jump did not portend efficiency.

According to the Data: The No. 1 Factor in Predicting an RB Breakout

Like Zac Stacy, Mike James should benefit from a heavy workload down the stretch.

According to the Data: How to Fix Fantasy Football

Losing to a Dallas Cowboys cheerleader who drafted Tom Brady in the first round has got Jonathan Bales thinking about how to improve the game.

According to the Data: A Look at Position Scarcity Through Week 6

What positions have the steepest drop-offs?

According to the Data: Having Too Many Players on One Team

Jonathan Bales has Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson on his NFFC team

According to the Data: Are Offenses Worse in Thursday Games?

Josh Gordon draws a Thursday night matchup against the Bills

According to the Data: Running Back Scarcity

There are good reasons why backs like C.J. Spiller were taken in the first round of your draft.

According to the Data: Do Older Running Backs Start Faster?

Seattle's Marshawn Lynch is coming off a big game against a tough 49ers defense.

According to the Data: When To Pair QB-WR Teammates

Is having Dez Bryant and Tony Romo on the same team a good idea?

According to the Data: Don't Worry About Bye Weeks

If you drafted Brandon Marshall (Week 8 bye), that's no reason to pass on Torrey Smith (also Week 8).

According to the Data: Comparing Expert PPR Rankings to ADP

The RotoWire experts value C.J. Spiller more highly than the public does.

According to the Data: Strength of Schedule - Part 2

How much does it matter that Ray Rice faces the toughest slate of run defenses from 2012?

According to the Data: Does Strength of Schedule Matter?

Chris Johnson faces last year's 29th and 30th-ranked run defenses (Colts and Jaguars) twice each and the Cardinals (28th), Chiefs (27th) and Jets (26th).

According to the Data: Breaking Down My NFFC Draft

Jonathan Bales takes Trent Richardson at No. 9 overall.

According to the Data: Why You Should Wait on Quarterbacks

Top signal callers like Drew Brees were big outliers in 2011, but far less so in other recent seasons.

According to the Data: Using History to Craft 2013 Rankings

Running back production drops off most steeply from early to middle rounds of your draft.

According to the Data: Comparing Expert Rankings to ADP

Rob Gronkowski's ADP is too high according to RotoWire's composite list.

According to the Data: VBD, Baseline Players and Draft Strategy

Value-Based Drafting isn't perfect, but it helps us identify position scarcity.

According to the Data: Pass-Catching Backs in PPR Leagues

Darren Sproles' ADP jumps only five spots when switching from standard to PPR leagues.

According to the Data: How to Value Quarterbacks in 2-QB Leagues

Michael Vick is roughly equal to David Wilson

According to the Data: Predicting Increases and Declines in Running Back YPC for 2013

Darren McFadden should see a substantial efficiency spike this year.

According to the Data: The Best and Worst RB Values In Round 1

Don't expect Marshawn Lynch to repeat his career numbers from 2012.

According to the Data: Using Analytics to Generate Value in Fantasy Football

Jonathan Bales, author of

According to the Data: Visualizing 2012 Value to Help Prepare for 2013

High-Upside receivers like Torrey Smith are typically available in the middle rounds.

According to the Data: Breakout Players For 2013

Faster running backs like Ben Tate have the most upside.

According to the Data: The Start of a New Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart

What's the No.1 overall slot worth in trade?

According to the Data: Using Scarcity to Find Value in 2013 Drafts

Don't be afraid to grab an elite QB at the back end of the first round.

According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Wide Receiver

Size matters more than speed when it comes to wide receiver success.

According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Tight End

New England's Rob Gronkowski fits the bill.

According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Running Back

Running back production skews fast, stocky and young.

According to the Data: Building the Ideal Fantasy Quarterback

YPA, not total yards, is the best predictor of future success.

According to the Data: Projecting Tight End Production Based on Age

Other than freak-of-nature Tony Gonzalez, tight ends typically have the shortest peaks of any fantasy skill position.

According to the Data: Projecting Wide Receiver Production Based on Age

Why you should take A.J. Green over Calvin Johnson in a keeper league.

According to the Data: QB Production By Age

At what point do aging signal-callers like Tom Brady experience decline?

According to the Data: Projecting Running Backs Based on Age

Twenty-seven and not 30 is the age where backs start to decline

According to the Data: Looking at Early-Year ADP to Determine Value

How February ADP can be a useful tool - even in August.

According to the Data: Do Injuries Offer Value in Fantasy Football?

Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles out-earned their draft-day cost. Is that the exception or the rule?

According to the Data: QB Success By Height

How Much Does Quarterback Height Affect NFL Performance?

According to the Data: How Much Does Speed Matter for Tight Ends?

It certainly doesn't hurt, but it's not as crucial as it is for other offensive skill positions.

According to the Data: Wide Receiver Speed Is Important, But Size Matters More

Unlike running backs, wide receivers depend far more on size than on speed

According to the Data: Speed Kills For Rookie Running Backs

A RB that runs a 4.4. 40 has a far greater chance of NFL success than one that runs a 4.5.

According to the Data: Should You Target Players in Contract Years?

Jonathan Bales does the research.

According to the Data: Projecting Second-Year Tight Ends

Who's going to be next year's Kyle Rudolph?

According to the Data: How to Project Rookie Quarterbacks

Efficiency stats like YPA are better indicators of future performance than total passing yards.

According to the Data: How to Find Value on Second-Year Receivers

Players like Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright should be good values next season.

According to the Data: Second-Year Running Backs Offer Potential Value

Daryl Richardson and David Wilson are two to watch for next season

According to the Data: Rookie Tight Ends Continue to Struggle

NFL Teams aren't drafting them as early as they once did, and the players are taking longer to get acclimated to the NFL

According to the Data: Are Rookie Quarterbacks the New Rookie Running Backs?

Are Andrew Luck, RGIII and Cam Newton rare outliers or part of a continuing trend?

According to the Data: Checking in With Rookie Running Backs and Wide Receivers

Rookie RBs typically offer better value than rookie WRs. Jonathan Bales evaluates this year's crop through 11 weeks.

According to the Data: Checking in On Preseason Consistency Correlations

Was is really wise to trust top quarterbacks more than top wide receivers on draft day?

According to the Data: Breaking Down Quarterback Red-Zone Attempts

Aaron Rodgers actually has had fewer inside-the-10 attempts than one would expect.

According to the Data: Midseason Underachieving Studs Offer Value

Cam Newton makes for a good buy-low right now.

According to the Data: How Much Do Great Quarterbacks Help Wide Receivers?

Jonathan Bales does the research

According to the Data: Are Rushing QBs More Consistent Than Pure Pocket Passers?

Cam Newton, RG III and Michael Vick don't have to rely on big passing numbers to put up fantasy points

According to the Data: Pass-Catching Backs Are More Consistent

Backs like LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice are less likely to have bad games than the Adrian Petersons and Michael Turners

According to the Data: Is Week-to-Week Consistency an Illusion?

Big-play wideouts like Mike Wallace are actually just as consistent as their more heavily targeted possession-receiving counterparts

According to the Data: Who to Target on Waivers Early in the Year

Tight Ends like Kyle Rudolph more reliably deliver starter production than WR or RBs

According to the Data: Buy-Low Edition

Darren McFadden hasn't gotten it going on the ground so far, but he will

According to the Data: Players You Should Sell High

Jonathan Bales argues now's the time to move Andre Johnson

According to the Data: Should You Go RB-RB-RB with Your First Three Picks?

After taking Arian Foster at 1.1, Jonathan Bales went RB-RB on the turn. Was that the right move?

According to the Data: Which Draft Slot is Most Valuable - Part 2

Getting stuck in the middle of Round 1 is a tough place to be as you have to settle for less than elite production with your first pick, and a second-rounder that's sub-optimal

According to the Data: Which Draft Slot Typically Returns the Most Value?

Players with the highest ADP (like Arian Foster) have averaged 82.7 percent of the fantasy points produced by the year-end No. 1 player at their position.

According to the Data: Philip Rivers and Regression Toward the Mean

Rivers is coming off a down year - how much of that should we attribute to bad luck?

According to the Data: Why You Should Gamble on Late-Round Rookie Running Backs

Not all rookie running backs pan out, and in fact most (like Mark Ingram pictured above) fail to live up to ADP. But when they do, it's often in a big way which makes them worth a gamble as your draft goes on.