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Pitching Value Meter: Leave it to Weaver

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week July 5-11

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Roy Halladay - ATL, CIN
2.Johan Santana - CIN, ATL
3.Adam Wainwright - @HOU
4.Tim Lincecum - @MIL
5.Ubaldo Jimenez - STL
6.Stephen Strasburg - SF
7.Chris Carpenter - @HOU
8.Clayton Kershaw - CHC
9.Josh Johnson - @LAD
10.Cole Hamels - ATL, CIN
11.Mat Latos - @WAS
12.Tim Hudson - @NYM
13.Mike Pelfrey - CIN, ATL
14.Ryan Dempster - @ARI
15.Yovani Gallardo - PIT
16.Matt Cain - @WAS
17.Roy Oswalt - PIT
18.Vicente Padilla - FLA, CHC
19.Ricky Nolasco - @ARI
20.Chad Billingsley - CHC
21.Tom Gorzelanny - @ARI, @LAD
22.Jon Niese - CIN
23.Anibal Sanchez - @ARI
24.Clayton Richard - @WAS, @COL
25.Carlos Silva - @ARI, @LAD
26.Ted Lilly - @LAD
27.John Ely - FLA, CHC
28.Johnny Cueto - @PHI
29.Wandy Rodriguez - PIT, STL
30.Dan Haren - FLA
31.Ian Kennedy - CHC, FLA
32.Madison Bumgarner - @MIL, @WAS
33.Tommy Hanson - @NYM
34.Hiroki Kuroda - FLA
35.Derek Lowe - @PHI, @NYM
36.Chris Volstad - @LAD, @ARI
37.Kris Medlen - @PHI
38.Jair Jurrjens - @PHI
39.Travis Wood - @NYM, @PHI
40.Jonathan Sanchez - @MIL, @WAS
41.Aaron Harang - @NYM, @PHI
42.Bronson Arroyo - @NYM
43.Jhoulys Chacin - SD
44.Jamie Garcia - @COL

Borderline

45.Joe Blanton - CIN
46.Jason Hammel - SD
47.Edwin Jackson - CHC
48.Brett Myers - STL
49.Chris Narveson - SF
50.Jamie Moyer - ATL
51.Livan Hernandez - SD
52.Randy Wolf - SF
53.Rodrigo Lopez - FLA
54.Wade LeBlanc - @COL
55.Nate Robertson - @LAD, @ARI
56.R.A. Dickey - ATL
57.Luis Atilano - SD
58.Doug Davis - SF, PIT
59.Randy Wells - @LAD
60.Mike Leake - @PHI
61.Bud Norris - STL
62.Daniel McCutchen - @HOU
63.Brad Lincoln - @HOU, @MIL
64.Barry Enright - CHC, FLA
65.Ross Ohlendorf - @HOU

Extreme Caution Advised

66.Paul Maholm - @MIL
67.Jeff Francis - STL, SD
68.Aaron Cook - STL
69.Jon Garland - @WAS
70.Barry Zito - @MIL
71.Kyle Kendrick - CIN
72.Craig Stammen - SF
73.J.D. Martin - SD, SF
74.Brian Moehler - PIT
75.David Bush - SF, PIT
76.Jeffrey Karstens - @MIL
77.Jeff Suppan - @COL, @HOU
78.Blake Hawksworth - @COL
79.Kevin Correia - @COL

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Hisanori Takahashi

Two-start starters:
Derek Lowe, Nate Robertson, Chris Volstad, Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana (tentative assumes Takahashi is skipped), Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, J.D. Martin (tentative), Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva, Aaron Harang, Travis Wood (assuming he sticks), Wandy Rodriguez, Doug Davis, David Bush (unless he's booted from the rotation possible), Brad Lincoln, Jeff Suppan, Ian Kennedy, Barry Enright, Jeff Francis, John Ely, Vicente Padilla, Clayton Richard (tentative check status), Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner

Notes:
Kenshin Kawakami and not Kris Medlen will move to the bullpen with the return of Jair Jurrjens to the Braves' rotation. Pretty much a no-brainer there. Have I mentioned how high I am on Medlen? Jonathon Niese is 4-0 with a 2.71 ERA in June. We're now seeing why the Mets have rightly refused to part with him in trades over the past couple years. The Mets could use another starter, but a top three of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and Niese is a good start. It's going to be interesting to see how the Nats fill out their rotation down the stretch. Jordan Zimmerman (elbow ETA August), Chien-ming Wang (shoulder ETA August), Jason Marquis (elbow ETA TBD), Scott Olsen (shoulder ETA July), and Ross Detwiler (hip ETA now) are all in various stages of rehab and will be pushing for rotation spots over the next month. Tom Gorzelanny entered 2010 with a career strikeout rate of just 6.2 K/9, but that number sits at 9.3 this year. Don't the Cubs have to figure out a way to keep him around once Carlos Zambrano returns? Randy Wells could be in trouble if he doesn't pitch well this week. "Short people got no reason ..." Travis Wood stands a shade under 6-foot, but impressed in his first big league start in Wrigley Field 7-2-2-2-3-4. Wood can thank Dusty Baker for the two runs, as he was sent out in the eighth inning and promptly walked the first two batters before being removed. Regardless, Wood is clearly ahead of Sam LeCure on the rotation depth chart, though with Edinson Volquez (elbow) due back soon, Wood's stint in Cincinnati will likely be a short one. Only Yovani Gallardo has more upside among the Milwaukee starting pitchers, but look for Manny Parra to be the odd man out once Doug Davis (chest) returns this week. Parra is still inconsistent (4.3 BB/9), but he also has a 9.6 K/9 and a solid 4.12 ERA. Brewers need to find room for him. Perhaps David Bush and his 1.2 K:BB heads to the pen instead. Blake Hawksworth will get another start for St. Louis after a 6-6-3-3-1-7 effort last time out against Milwaukee. I'd be cautious about using him in Coors Field this week, though without Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies are far less formidable. Raise your hand if you knew of the existence of Barry Enright prior to this week. I admittedly didn't, but Enright impressed in his big league debut, jumping from Double-A to Busch Stadium and beating the Cardinals by holding them to one run on four hits over five innings. Enright was solid for Mobile this year, posting a 2.88 ERA and 83:15 K:BB in 93.2 innings. Perhaps he sticks around for awhile. Jorge De La Rosa (finger) is ready to return to the rotation, but who does he replace? Anyone not named Ubaldo Jimenez is a candidate. Jhoulys Chacin just struck out 12 Angels, Aaron Cook has been pitching better, and Jason Hammel has been fairly consistent all year. Jeff Francis? Three innings, eight runs in Petco Park last time out. I don't have DLR in the rankings this week, but keep an eye on this situation over the weekend. Vicente Padilla has a 3.26 ERA in three starts since returning from the DL, and considering two of the teams he faced were the Yankees and Red Sox, that's quite impressive. Ride him while he's hot. I'm not too worried about Madison Bumgarner being 0-2. He face the Red Sox and Rockies in Coors Field in those two starts, so a 4.50 ERA and 10:2 K:BB in 14 innings is commendable. Bumgarner also topped out at 93 with his fastball in his last start. He's a solid 12-team mixed league play this week as a two-start starter.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.CC Sabathia - @OAK, @SEA
2.Jered Weaver - @CHW, @OAK
3.Felix Hernandez - KC, NYY
4.Cliff Lee - NYY
5.Jon Lester - @TOR
6.Jake Peavy - LAA, KC
7.Javier Vazquez - @OAK, @SEA
8.Clay Buchholz - @TB
9.Carl Pavano - @TOR, @DET
10.Trevor Cahill - NYY, LAA
11.David Price - BOS
12.Philip Hughes - @SEA
13.John Danks - LAA, KC
14.Matt Garza - BOS, CLE
15.Justin Verlander - MIN
16.Jeff Niemann - BOS, CLE
17.Gavin Floyd - LAA, KC
18.Zack Greinke - @SEA
19.Ricky Romero - BOS
20.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @TB, @TOR
21.Max Scherzer - BAL
22.James Shields - CLE
23.Colby Lewis - CLE
24.Brandon Morrow - BOS
25.A.J. Burnett - @OAK
26.Mark Buehrle - KC
27.Jeremy Bonderman - MIN
28.Joel Pineiro - @OAK
29.Francisco Liriano - @DET
30.Ervin Santana - @CHW
31.Erik Bedard - KC, NYY
32.Doug Fister - KC
33.Andy Pettitte - @SEA
34.Joe Saunders - @CHW
35.John Lackey - @TOR

Borderline

36.Brian Matusz - @TEX
37.Wade Davis - CLE
38.Brett Cecil - MIN
39.Freddy Garcia - LAA
40.Fausto Carmona - @TB
41.Justin Masterson - @TEX, @TB (two tough ones)
42.Andrew Oliver - BAL
43.Scott Baker - @TOR
44.Kevin Slowey - @TOR
45.Ben Sheets - NYY, LAA
46.Gio Gonzalez - NYY
47.Jason Vargas - NYY
48.Omar Beltre - CLE, BAL
49.C.J. Wilson - CLE, BAL
50.Jeremy Guthrie - @TEX
51.Jake Arrieta - @DET, @TEX
52.Tim Wakefield - @TB

Extreme caution advised

53.Kyle Davies - @SEA
54.Jake Westbrook - @TB
55.Scott Kazmir - @CHW, @OAK
56.Vincent Mazzaro - LAA
57.Armando Galarraga - BAL, MIN
58.Tommy Hunter - BAL
59.Nick Blackburn - @DET
60.Kevin Millwood - @DET, @TEX
61.Bradley Bergensen - @DET
62.TBD Toronto - MIN
63.Jesse Litsch - MIN, BOS
64.Mitch Talbot - @TEX
65.Anthony Lerew - @CHW
66.Brian Bannister - @SEA, @CHW
67.Bruce Chen - @CHW
68.Aaron Laffey - @TEX, @TB
69.Scott Feldman - BAL

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Dallas Braden (not 100%)

Two-start starters:
Kevin Millwood, Jake Arrieta, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Javier Vazquez, CC Sabathia, Jesse Litsch, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, Aaron Laffey, Justin Masterson, Armando Galarraga, Brian Bannister, Carl Pavano, Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Ben Sheets, Trevor Cahill (tentative assumes Dallas Braden is skipped), Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Omar Beltre, C.J. Wilson

Notes:
Erik Bedard (shoulder) makes his return to the Seattle rotation this week, picking up two starts in the process. Bedard topped out at 92 in his last rehab outing, which is fine for him, so you may as well get him active. I'm a bit leery of the start against the Yankees, but I'd still roll the dice. Scott Kazmir (5.67 ERA) is blaming his struggles on locating his slider, so we'll have to see if he makes that adjustment. I'd probably use him this week as a two-start guy considering the competition (@CHW, @OAK). Shaun Marcum's elbow injury is very unfortunate given how good he's looked this year. It doesn't sound too serious, though an MRI could tell differently. Dan Hudson has a 102:29 K:BB in 88.1 innings for Triple-A Charlotte. We'll see him in the Chicago rotation at some point this year. Justin Masterson is really the only guy I find interesting in the Cleveland rotation. He's allowed six or more runs four times this year, but also spun a two-hit shutout against Boston in June and nearly shut out Toronto last time out. Andrew Oliver has had a solid first two starts for the Tigers, but with Rick Porcello looming in Triple-A, his time could be running out. Armando Galarraga (4.50 ERA, 3.4 K/9) has hardly been spectacular save for that one start you may have heard about, but it seems unlikely he'd be bumped from the rotation. Trevor Cahill is an good example of a guy who you have to evaluate not only on prior-year results, but on age and the underlying talent. Cahill had a predictably inconsistent rookie year in 2009, posting a 4.63 ERA with mediocre peripherals (4.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9). This year he's got a good shot at an All-Star berth. Omar Beltre isn't a lock for two starts this week, as he was just so-so in his big league debut: 4-5-3-3-4-6. I'd probably use him in AL-only leagues though considering he has the Indians and Orioles this week if he makes his projected two starts. Cliff Lee is scheduled to pitch against the Yankees this week, but one has to wonder which dugout he'll actually be sitting in for that game. Speaking of Lee, how's this for a June? He had twice as many wins (four) as walks this month. A 36:2 K:BB in 51 innings. Not bad. We know Felix Hernandez is big and strong, but 51.1 innings in a month (June) is a lot of innings. One has to wonder whether the workload will wear him down. The Yankees and Mets don't often make deals, but Javier Vazquez to the Mets, Cliff Lee to the Yankees, and prospects to Seattle makes some sense. The Mets would obviously prefer Lee, but I don't see them giving what it would take. Vazquez would be easier to pry away from the Yankees. Chris Tillman has a 2.84 ERA in two starts since his demotion to Triple-A, but it's only a matter of time before he replaces Bradley Bergensen in the rotation. I'm writing this note in advance of Bergensen's start in Boston, so Tillman may already be en route by the time you read this.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Roy Halladay - ATL, CIN
2.CC Sabathia - @OAK, @SEA
3.Jered Weaver - @CHW, @OAK
4.Felix Hernandez - KC, NYY
5.Johan Santana - CIN, ATL
6.Adam Wainwright - @HOU
7.Tim Lincecum - @MIL
8.Cliff Lee - NYY
9.Ubaldo Jimenez - STL
10.Stephen Strasburg - SF
11.Jon Lester - @TOR
12.Chris Carpenter - @HOU
13.Jake Peavy - LAA, KC
14.Clayton Kershaw - CHC
15.Josh Johnson - @LAD
16.Javier Vazquez - @OAK, @SEA
17.Cole Hamels - ATL, CIN
18.Clay Buchholz - @TB
19.Carl Pavano - @TOR, @DET
20.Trevor Cahill - NYY, LAA
21.Mat Latos - @WAS
22.Tim Hudson - @NYM
23.Mike Pelfrey - CIN, ATL
24.David Price - BOS
25.Ryan Dempster - @ARI
26.Yovani Gallardo - PIT
27.Matt Cain - @WAS
28.Philip Hughes - @SEA
29.Roy Oswalt - PIT
30.John Danks - LAA, KC
31.Matt Garza - BOS, CLE
32.Justin Verlander - MIN
33.Jeff Niemann - BOS, CLE
34.Gavin Floyd - LAA, KC
35.Vicente Padilla - FLA, CHC
36.Zack Greinke - @SEA
37.Ricky Nolasco - @ARI
38.Chad Billingsley - CHC
39.Tom Gorzelanny - @ARI, @LAD
40.Ricky Romero - BOS
41.Jon Niese - CIN
42.Anibal Sanchez - @ARI
43.Clayton Richard - @WAS, @COL
44.Carlos Silva - @ARI, @LAD
45.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @TB, @TOR
46.Ted Lilly - @LAD
47.John Ely - FLA, CHC
48.Johnny Cueto - @PHI
49.Max Scherzer - BAL
50.James Shields - CLE
51.Colby Lewis - CLE
52.Wandy Rodriguez - PIT, STL
53.Dan Haren - FLA
54.Brandon Morrow - BOS
55.A.J. Burnett - @OAK
56.Mark Buehrle - KC
57.Jeremy Bonderman - MIN
58.Joel Pineiro - @OAK
59.Ian Kennedy - CHC, FLA
60.Madison Bumgarner - @MIL, @WAS
61.Tommy Hanson - @NYM
62.Francisco Liriano - @DET
63.Hiroki Kuroda - FLA
64.Derek Lowe - @PHI, @NYM
65.Chris Volstad - @LAD, @ARI
66.Kris Medlen - @PHI
67.Ervin Santana - @CHW
68.Jair Jurrjens - @PHI
69.Travis Wood - @NYM, @PHI
70.Erik Bedard - KC, NYY
71.Jonathan Sanchez - @MIL, @WAS
72.Doug Fister - KC
73.Andy Pettitte - @SEA
74.Aaron Harang - @NYM, @PHI
75.Joe Saunders - @CHW
76.Bronson Arroyo - @NYM
77.John Lackey - @TOR
78.Jhoulys Chacin - SD
79.Jamie Garcia - @COL
80.Joe Blanton - CIN
81.Jason Hammel - SD
82.Edwin Jackson - CHC
83.Brett Myers - STL
84.Brian Matusz - @TEX
85.Wade Davis - CLE
86.Brett Cecil - MIN
87.Freddy Garcia - LAA
88.Fausto Carmona - @TB
89.Chris Narveson - SF
90.Jamie Moyer - ATL
91.Livan Hernandez - SD
92.Justin Masterson - @TEX, @TB (two tough ones)
93.Andrew Oliver - BAL
94.Scott Baker - @TOR
95.Randy Wolf - SF
96.Kevin Slowey - @TOR
97.Rodrigo Lopez - FLA
98.Ben Sheets - NYY, LAA
99.Gio Gonzalez - NYY
100.Wade LeBlanc - @COL