This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Report on Dan Hudson
One of the biggest prospect breakthroughs of 2009 was Dan Hudson, right-handed starter for the Chicago White Sox. A year ago he was in the Pioneer League, but he ended 2009 in the majors, completing a meteoric rise through the Pale Hose system. Who is this guy, and how did he pull this off?
BACKGROUND
Dan Hudson was drafted in the fifth round in 2008, out of Old Dominion. At one point he had been considered a possible second-round talent, until an erratic junior season hurt his stock. The White Sox remained intrigued and felt they got a bargain with him in the fifth round, signing him for $180,000. He posted a 3.36 ERA with a 90:22 K:BB ratio in just 70 innings for Great Falls in the Pioneer League last year after signing. Allow me enough self-aggrandizement to point out that I listed him as a sleeper for big success this year in my 2009 Baseball Prospect Book.
He began 2009 with low-A Kannapolis in the Sally League, but made just four starts at that level, being promoted due to a 1.23 ERA with a stunning 30:2 K:BB in just 22 innings with 15 hits allowed. He continued to pitch well for Winston-Salem in the high-A Carolina League, posting a 3.40 ERA with a 49:13 K:BB in 45 innings, 31 hits allowed. A spot opened up in the Double-A Birmingham rotation at mid-season, so Hudson got the call and went on a terrific run, going 7-0, 1.60 in nine starts with a 63:10 K:BB ratio in 56 innings, allowing a mere 37 hits. He then made five starts for Triple-A Charlotte, resulting in a 3.00 ERA with a 24:9 K:BB in 24 innings. Promoted to Chicago for the stretch drive, he posted a 3.38 ERA in 19 innings, including two starts and four relief appearances, with a 14:9 K:BB. His composite minor league record on the year was 14-5, 2.32 with a 166:34 K:BB in 147 innings, 105 hits allowed, making him one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors this year.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Hudson is a right-handed hitter and thrower, born March 9th, 1987 in Lynchburg, Virginia, listed at 6-4, 220 pounds. In college he threw 88-92 MPH, but his velocity picked up as 2009 progressed, hitting 94 MPH late in the season when used in the bullpen for the White Sox. His normal pitching velocity as a starter is 90-93 MPH, but the fastball looks faster than the pure radar readings due to the contrast with his other pitches, a slider and a changeup. The slider was rated as his best pitch entering 2009, but scouts report that he made huge progress with his changeup this year, giving him three strong pitches to work with. He uses a low three-quarters delivery which likely adds some deception to his offerings. He's a decent athlete and fairly mobile on the mound, though he'll make some defensive miscues, a problem that should improve with experience. He's confident and has good "mound presence," not looking out of place in the Show just one year out of college. He has had no significant physical problems.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
There is little to quibble about statistically: his K:IP and K:BB ratios have been excellent and he's kept his hit rates under control despite moving up very rapidly. His walk rate did increase once he reached Triple-A and the majors. Although it didn't hurt his overall performance very much, making sure his command remains consistent will be a key factor for his future. He showed a strong ground ball tendency in the lower minors, but his ground ball ratios slipped at each level: 1.83 GO:AO at Kannapolis, 1.08 at Winston-Salem, 0.71 at Birmingham, 0.50 at Charlotte, 0.37 for Chicago. He gave up three homers in 19 major league innings, as opposed to just five in 147 minor league innings. The sharp deterioration in the ground ball rate is the main negative in his profile and will need to be watched; he could end up being very vulnerable to gophers if he doesn't make some adjustments.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Hudson has gone from an interesting sleeper prospect to one of the best pitching prospects in baseball very rapidly. He could use some Triple-A time to consolidate his progress and refine his command, and it will be interesting to see how aggressive the White Sox are with him in 2010. Ideally, it would be in the best interests of his long-term development to begin '10 either in Triple-A or as a long reliever in the major league pen, but sometimes the exigencies of roster management prevent an ideal timetable. If he stays healthy and puts the finishing touches on his command, Hudson should develop into a very solid number three starter in my estimation.
Article first appeared 10/12/09
