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Pitching Value Meter: Red Ready

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Some NFL Draft observations before we jump into baseball:

Still can't believe both Jake Locker and Christian Ponder were top-12 picks. Fine that they liked Ponder, but why not at least deal down and pick up an extra third?

Now instead of WRs, the Lions are stockpiling stud DTs? Interesting.

We'll see, but for now I'm not a fan of dealing five picks for Julio Jones. Great talent, but sort of an underachiever in college considering his five-star recruit status.

Not a 49ers fan, but I live in Reno and got to see Colin Kaepernick play a few times, including his first game. Pretty cool that he's staying local.

As a Rams fan, I'm happy to see them get Robert Quinn at No. 14 overall. ... Less happy with a FB/TE in round 2. Figured they would go with Leonard Hankerson there. Bizarre, but then they had a shot at Hankerson in round three and passed, so what do I know?

Twitter: Yes, I'm on Twitter (@vtadave), so follow me if you want to help me get to a number to where it makes it worth my efforts to tweet about starting pitching, closers, prospects, how much Frank McCourt's last haircut costs and other miscellaneous ramblings. I'm also following McCourt's leech of a son Drew, so I'll be sure to re-tweet his ridiculous rants.

Saw the Bengals draft a red-headed QB, and the wife watched some guy with a red-headed brother get married Friday. Weird.

For this week May 2-8

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Roy Halladay - WAS
2. Cliff Lee - ATL
3. Clayton Kershaw - CHC, @NYM
4. Josh Johnson - @STL
5. Tim Lincecum - @NYM
6. Cole Hamels - WAS, ATL
7. Tommy Hanson - MIL, @PHI
8. Kyle Lohse - FLA, MIL
9. Jair Jurrjens - MIL, @PHI
10. Chris Carpenter - FLA
11. Ubaldo Jimenez - @SF
12. Matt Garza - CIN
13. Tim Hudson - MIL
14. Anibal Sanchez - @STL, WAS
15. Yovani Gallardo - @ATL, @STL (scuffling)
16. Ricky Nolasco - WAS
17. Roy Oswalt - ATL
18. Travis Wood - HOU
19. Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT
20. Zack Greinke - @ATL (check status)
21. Chad Billingsley - CHC
22. Matt Cain - COL
23. Shaun Marcum - @ATL
24. Kyle McClellan - FLA, MIL
25. Jaime Garcia - MIL
26. Randy Wolf - @STL
27. Dan Hudson - @SD
28. Mat Latos - PIT
29. Jorge De La Rosa - @ARI
30. Jhoulys Chacin - @ARI
31. Hiroki Kuroda - @NYM
32. Kevin Correia - @SD
33. Jason Hammel - @SF
34. Tim Stauffer - ARI
35. Bronson Arroyo - @CHC
36. Jonathan Sanchez - @NYM
37. Madison Bumgarner - @WAS, COL
38. Mike Leake - HOU
39. Carlos Zambrano - @LAD
40. Brett Myers - @CIN
41. Aaron Harang - PIT, ARI
42. Livan Hernandez - @PHI. @FLA

Borderline Depending on League Format

43. James McDonald - @SD, HOU (nice matchups)
44. Ted Lilly - CHC
45. Ian Kennedy - @SD
46. Clayton Richard - PIT
47. Derek Lowe - @PHI (racing while toasted ... nice)
48. Brandon Beachy - MIL
49. Jon Garland - @NYM
50. Jordan Zimmerman - @FLA
51. Edinson Volquez - @CHC
52. Bud Norris - @PIT
53. Chris Volstad - @STL, WAS
54. Jake Westbrook - FLA
55. Charlie Morton - HOU
56. R.A. Dickey - SF, LAD
57. Dustin Moseley - ARI
58. Javier Vazquez - @STL
59. Jonathon Niese - LAD
60. Chris Young - LAD
61. Tom Gorzelanny - SF, @FLA
62. Ryan Dempster - @LAD, CIN
63. Sam LeCure - HOU
64. Johnny Cueto - @CHC

Extreme Caution Advised

65. Jason Marquis - @PHI
66. Vance Worley - WAS
67. Jeff Karstens - @SD
68. Chris Narveson - @STL
69. Paul Maholm - HOU
70. Joe Saunders - COL, @SD
71. Esmil Rogers - @ARI, @SF
72. Ryan Vogelsong - COL
73. Mike Pelfrey - SF
74. J.A. Happ - @CIN, @PIT
75. Nelson Figueroa - @CIN
76. Barry Enright - COL
77. Armando Galarraga - COL
78. Chris Capuano - SF
79. John Lannan - @PHI
80. Jay Jackson - @LAD
81. Casey Coleman - CIN

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
None

Two-start starters:
Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, R.A. Dickey, Cole Hamels, Tom Gorzelanny, Livan Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, J.A. Happ, Yovani Gallardo, James McDonald, Kyle Lohse, Kyle McClellan, Joe Saunders, Esmil Rogers, Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Harang, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong.

Notes:
I have to think it's something mechanical with Ryan Dempster (31 IP, 33 ER) who was behind 4-0 after four batters in his last start. His velocity is still there, so maybe we have a buy-low opportunity here. ... Jason Marquis shutting out the Giants on Friday night says more about the Giants offense (24th in runs, 26th in OBP) than Marquis, but he does have a 2.62 ERA. If you use him this week in Philly, good luck with that. ... Chris Capuano has a 6.04 ERA, so it's time to monitor the progress of Jenrry Mejia (2.25 ERA in four starts) down in Triple-A. ... So Kyle Lohse's velocity is down over last year, but his control has been spot on (1.2 BB/9), leading to a 1.64 ERA in five starts. Lohse's GB rate is also up, but the .202 BABIP clearly isn't sustainable. Still, this is the Lohse the Cardinals thought they were getting when they gave him $42 million. ... There is progress (finally) with Mat Latos, who allowed just one earned run in his last start while striking out five in five innings. Latos has the talent to post a sub-3.00 ERA the rest of the way. ... Any thoughts on what Derek Lowe may have been drinking when he picked up a DUI Thursday? Thinking he's a beer guy, but a few shots of Patron wouldn't be a shocker. ... Ryan Vogelsong is doing his best anti-Barry Zito impression, picking up his first big league win in six years Friday against his old team the Pirates. Vogelsong now has a 1.74 ERA and 11:2 K:BB in 10.1 innings, and I'd love to see what the Giants do with Zito if that keeps up. ... Things don't sound good regarding Joe Blanton's elbow, though it's possible he'll avoid surgery. In the meantime, Vance Worley gets first crack at being the Phillies' fifth “ace” after posting a solid 2.78 ERA and 25:6 K:BB in 22.2 innings in Triple-A. He's worth an NL-only bid. ... Pencil in Johnny Cueto (shoulder) to return this week, though that all depends on how this weekend's rehab start goes. Homer Bailey (shoulder) could follow the week of May 9 with his own return. Sam LeCure is one obvious guy to boot, but to make room for Bailey, the Reds will have to make a tough decision.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Jon Lester - LAA, MIN
2. CC Sabathia - @DET, @TEX
3. Dan Haren - @BOS, CLE
4. Justin Verlander - NYY, @TOR
5. Jered Weaver - CLE
6. Josh Beckett - LAA, MIN
7. David Price - @BAL
8. John Danks - MIN
9. Felix Hernandez - CHW
10. Ricky Romero - @TB
11. James Shields - @BAL
12. Michael Pineda – TEX
13. Brett Anderson - CLE
14. Brandon Morrow - @TB
15. Jeremy Guthrie - @CHW, TB
16. Trevor Cahill - CLE
17. C.J. Wilson - @SEA
18. Justin Masterson - @LAA
19. Gavin Floyd - @SEA
20. Clay Buchholz - MIN
21. Gio Gonzalez - @KC
22. Jeff Niemann - TOR, @BAL
23. Bartolo Colon - @DET, @TEX
24. Josh Tomlin - @OAK, @LAA
25. Zach Britton - TB
26. A.J. Burnett - @DET
27. Wade Davis - TOR, @BAL
28. John Lackey - LAA
29. Jeremy Hellickson - TOR
30. Max Scherzer - NYY

Borderline Depending on League Format

31. Colby Lewis - @SEA
32. Alexi Ogando - @SEA, NYY (bench for start No. 2 if you can)
33. Tyson Ross - CLE, @KC
34. Bradley Bergesen - @KC, TB
35. Jake Arrieta - @KC
36. Erik Bedard - TEX, CHW
37. Chris Tillman - @KC
38. Mark Buehrle - BAL, @SEA
39. Scott Baker - @BOS
40. Kyle Drabek - DET
41. Edwin Jackson - MIN
42. Phil Humber - @SEA
43. Fausto Carmona - @OAK
44. Brandon McCarthy - TEX, @KC
45. Bruce Chen - BAL
46. Matt Harrison - NYY
47. Doug Fister - CHW
48. Derek Holland - @OAK, NYY

Extreme Caution Advised

49. Freddy Garcia - @DET
50. Jo-Jo Reyes - @TB, DET
51. Tyler Chatwood - @BOS, CLE
52. Alex White - @LAA
53. Ervin Santana - @BOS
54. Luke Hochevar - OAK
55. Jeff Francis - BAL, OAK
56. Sean O'Sullivan - OAK
57. Carl Pavano - @BOS
58. Brian Duensing - @BOS
59. Jesse Litsch - DET
60. Francisco Liriano - @CHW
61. Jeanmar Gomez - @OAK
62. Brad Penny - NYY, @TOR
63. Rick Porcello - NYY
64. Kyle Davies - BAL
65. Phil Coke - @TOR
66. Nick Blackburn - @CHW
67. Joel Pineiro - @BOS
68. Ivan Nova - @TEX
69. Jason Vargas - TEX
70. Daisuke Matsuzaka – LAA (elbow – check status)

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
None

Two-start starters:
Jeremy Guthrie, Bradley Bergeson, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Bartolo Colon, CC Sabathia, Wade Davis, Jo-Jo Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Josh Tomlin, Justin Verlander, Brad Penny, Jeff Francis, Tyler Chatwood, Dan Haren, Brandon McCarthy, Tyson Ross, Erik Bedard, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando.

Notes: Jeff Niemann
is probably the best candidate to blow up and lose his job to impressive prospect Matt Moore, but he sure looked good against the Twins this week, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finishing with a 7-2-1-1-1-2 line. The ERA is still just 5.60, but this is certainly encouraging. ... Edwin Jackson had a 9.5 K/9 in his first four starts but just five in 9.2 innings in his last two (13 ER). He also walked nine in those starts, with the ability to control his fastball clearly an issue. ... Kyle Davies has a 7.98 ERA and somehow still, also has a job. Meanwhile in Triple-A, Danny Duffy has a 0.90 ERA and in his last three starts, this line: 15 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 20 K. We could see him in May or at the latest, June. ... Kevin Slowey is close to returning from a shoulder injury, but may need time to build up arm strength before he replaces Nick Blackburn (5.14 ERA). ... Prospect Alex White could be in line to fill in for the injured Carlos Carrasco (elbow – no structural damage). He has a 2.25 ERA in four Triple-A starts after being a first-round draft pick out of college in 2009. His upside is probably as a No. 2 starter. ... Tyler Chatwood ( should stay in the rotation now that Joel Pineiro is back from the DL. Matt Palmer likely heads to Triple-A. Chatwood has a 3.86 ERA, but that's not supported by his 10:15 K:BB in 23.1 innings.. Growing pains indeed. ... Erik Bedard is starting to actually look usable, getting his fastball up in the 93 mph range last time out against Detroit, allowing just one run in seven innings. Go ahead and speculate just in case he's truly turning back the clock. ... Josh Tomlin is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Simply shocking. ... I'm loathe to call Colby Lewis a one-year wonder, but his 6.95 ERA is obviously disappointing. At least he showed better velocity last time out.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Jon Lester - LAA, MIN
2. CC Sabathia - @DET, @TEX
3. Dan Haren - @BOS, CLE
4. Roy Halladay - WAS
5. Justin Verlander - NYY, @TOR
6. Jered Weaver - CLE
7. Josh Beckett - LAA, MIN
8. Cliff Lee - ATL
9. Clayton Kershaw - CHC, @NYM
10. Josh Johnson - @STL
11. Tim Lincecum - @NYM
12. David Price - @BAL
13. John Danks - MIN
14. Cole Hamels - WAS, ATL
15. Felix Hernandez - CHW
16. Tommy Hanson - MIL, @PHI
17. Kyle Lohse - FLA, MIL
18. Jair Jurrjens - MIL, @PHI
19. Chris Carpenter - FLA
20. Ubaldo Jimenez - @SF
21. Matt Garza - CIN
22. Ricky Romero - @TB
23. Tim Hudson - MIL
24. James Shields - @BAL
25. Michael Pineda – TEX
26. Brett Anderson - CLE
27. Anibal Sanchez - @STL, WAS
28. Yovani Gallardo - @ATL, @STL (scuffling)
29. Brandon Morrow - @TB
30. Jeremy Guthrie - @CHW, TB
31. Ricky Nolasco - WAS
32. Roy Oswalt - ATL
33. Trevor Cahill - CLE
34. C.J. Wilson - @SEA
35. Travis Wood - HOU
36. Justin Masterson - @LAA
37. Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT
38. Gavin Floyd - @SEA
39. Clay Buchholz - MIN
40. Zack Greinke - @ATL (check status)
41. Chad Billingsley - CHC
42. Matt Cain - COL
43. Shaun Marcum - @ATL
44. Kyle McClellan - FLA, MIL
45. Jaime Garcia - MIL
46. Gio Gonzalez - @KC
47. Jeff Niemann - TOR, @BAL
48. Randy Wolf - @STL
49. Dan Hudson - @SD
50. Mat Latos - PIT
51. Jorge De La Rosa - @ARI
52. Bartolo Colon - @DET, @TEX
53. Josh Tomlin - @OAK, @LAA
54. Jhoulys Chacin - @ARI
55. Zach Britton - TB
56. A.J. Burnett - @DET
57. Wade Davis - TOR, @BAL
58. John Lackey - LAA
59. Jeremy Hellickson - TOR
60. Hiroki Kuroda - @NYM
61. Max Scherzer - NYY
62. Kevin Correia - @SD
63. Jason Hammel - @SF
64. Tim Stauffer - ARI
65. Bronson Arroyo - @CHC
66. Jonathan Sanchez - @NYM
67. Madison Bumgarner - @WAS, COL
68. Mike Leake - HOU
69. Colby Lewis - @SEA
70. Carlos Zambrano - @LAD
71. Brett Myers - @CIN
72. Aaron Harang - PIT, ARI
73. Alexi Ogando - @SEA, NYY (bench for start No. 2 if you can)
74. Tyson Ross - CLE, @KC
75. Bradley Bergesen - @KC, TB
76. Jake Arrieta - @KC
77. Livan Hernandez - @PHI. @FLA
78. Erik Bedard - TEX, CHW
79. Chris Tillman - @KC
80. Mark Buehrle - BAL, @SEA
81. Ted Lilly - CHC
82. James McDonald - @SD, HOU (nice matchups)
83. Scott Baker - @BOS
84. Ian Kennedy - @SD
85. Clayton Richard - PIT
86. Derek Lowe - @PHI (racing while toasted ... nice)
87. Brandon Beachy - MIL
88. Jon Garland - @NYM
89. Jordan Zimmerman - @FLA
90. Edinson Volquez - @CHC
91. Kyle Drabek - DET
92. Edwin Jackson - MIN
93. Bud Norris - @PIT
94. Phil Humber - @SEA
95. Fausto Carmona - @OAK
96. Brandon McCarthy - TEX, @KC
97. Chris Volstad - @STL, WAS
98. Jake Westbrook - FLA
99. Charlie Morton - HOU
100. R.A. Dickey - SF, LAD

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter