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Pitching Value Meter: All-Star Gem

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

I'm going to celebrate the great game of baseball with a great group of colleagues in Vegas this week, but I can't stop thinking about the awful incident that happened in Texas on Thursday night. Firefighter and father Shannon Stone tragically died in a fall trying to catch a ball thrown into the stands by Josh Hamilton. Probably won't see as many of those flippant tosses by players, I'm guessing. As a father myself, I can't imagine what this six-year-old's life is going to be like after having seen his dad fall to his death. Just brutal. Anyway ...

The Value Meter for the week after the All-Star break is always tough to write. I've toyed with not doing it at all or perhaps just providing some general notes and comments, but I'll give my best shot anyway. A few assumptions/caveats:

1. The aces will pitch next week (or in the Royals' case, Luke Hochevar will pitch).
2. Things will change.
3. Pitchers on innings limits may get skipped to provide additional rest.
4. Things will change.
5. No. 5 starters probably won't pitch.
6. Pitchers not on this list may pitch next week.

Good luck and enjoy the game ...

For this week July 11 July 17

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em


1. Roy Halladay - @NYM
2. Cliff Lee - @NYM
3. Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
4. Tim Lincecum - @SD
5. Cole Hamels - @NYM
6. Jair Jurrjens - WAS
7. Matt Cain - @SD
8. Madison Bumgarner - @SD
9. Chris Carpenter - @CIN
10. Wandy Rodriguez - PIT
11. Ian Kennedy - LAD
12. Chad Billingsley - @ARI
13. Dan Hudson - LAD
14. Ubaldo Jimenez - MIL
15. Mat Latos - SF
16. Johnny Cueto - STL
17. Brandon Beachy - WAS
18. Matt Garza - FLA
19. Tim Stauffer - SF
20. Hiroki Kuroda - @ARI
21. Zack Greinke - @COL
22. Jeff Karstens - @HOU
23. Tim Hudson - WAS
24. Ricky Nolasco - @CHC
25. Ryan Dempster - FLA
26. Bud Norris - PIT
27. Mike Leake - STL
28. Anibal Sanchez - @CHC
29. Yovani Gallardo - @COL
30. Shaun Marcum - @COL
31. Dustin Moseley - SF
32. Barry Zito - @SD

Borderline Depending on League Format

33. Joe Saunders - LAD
34. Charlie Morton - @HOU
35. Jonathon Niese - PHI
36. James McDonald - @HOU
37. John Lannan - @ATL
38. Randy Wolf - @COL
39. Dillon Gee - PHI
40. Javier Vazquez - @CHC
41. Bronson Arroyo - STL
42. Brett Myers - PIT
43. Jason Hammel - MIL
44. Kyle Lohse - @CIN
45. Aaron Harang - SF

Extreme Caution Advised

46. R.A. Dickey - PHI
47. Livan Hernandez - @ATL
48. Rodrigo Lopez - FLA
49. Brad Hand - @CHC
50. Juan Nicasio - MIL
51. Jason Marquis - @ATL
52. Jake Westbrook - @CIN
53. Casey Coleman - FLA
54. Aaron Cook MIL

Notes:
It appears Carlos Zambrano will return from a back injury on July 16. Good news for the Cubbies. ... Barry Zito is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts since returning from the DL, and even though in those 21 innings Zito has struck out just 11, Jonathan Sanchez might not have a spot in the rotation once he returns from a biceps injury. ... Danny Duffy has allowed two runs in four of his last five starts, so he's settling in nicely. He'll make a start in Triple-A over the break and then likely return to the Royals rotation in the second half. He's a nice AL-only option. ... Dontrelle Willis returns Sunday to make his first MLB start of 2011 for the Reds after posting a 2.63 ERA in Triple-A. I'm not sure how strong a play he will be, but I'll tune in. ... Hopefully for the Mets' sake, Dillon Gee takes the All-Star break to regroup, as it appears the wheels have fallen off. After opening 7-0, Gee has a 6.35 ERA over his last four starts. ... Anibal Sanchez was roughed up for 12 runs over his last two starts, but considering those came in Texas and at home against the Phillies, it's best not to panic. Sanchez still has a stellar 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. ... Chien-Ming Wang's return from a foot injury may finally be within his grasp. He's not yet throwing as hard as he used to, but Wang did top out at 92 mph, so he could be an asset in NL-only leagues come late-July. Wang last pitched in a big-league game in 2009. ... I'm not a doctor, but it seems insane for the Nationals to allow Stephen Strasburg (elbow) to pitch this year. That said, it could happen, as Strasburg will reportedly make a minor league rehab start come mid-August. If you have a DL slot in non-keeper leagues, go ahead and roll the dice, but it's a crapshoot at this point. ...

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Jered Weaver - @OAK
2. Justin Verlander - CHW
3. Josh Beckett - @TB
4. CC Sabathia - @TOR
5. David Price - BOS
6. James Shields - BOS
7. Dan Haren - @OAK
8. Felix Hernandez - TEX
9. Michael Pineda - TEX
10. C.J. Wilson - @SEA
11. Justin Masterson - @BAL
12. Ervin Santana - @OAK
13. Gio Gonzalez - LAA
14. Ricky Romero - NYY
15. Colby Lewis - @SEA
16. Brian Duensing - KC
17. Josh Tomlin - @BAL
18. Joel Pineiro - @OAK
19. Trevor Cahill - LAA
20. Gavin Floyd - @DET
21. Carl Pavano - KC
22. Jeremy Guthrie - CLE
23. Derek Holland - @SEA
24. Philip Hughes - @TOR
25. Edwin Jackson - @DET
26. Matt Harrison - @SEA
27. Carlos Carrasco - @BAL
28. Max Scherzer - CHW
29. Francisco Liriano - KC

Borderline Depending on League Format

30. Doug Fister - TEX
31. Brandon Morrow - NYY
32. Philip Humber - @DET
33. Brandon McCarthy - LAA
34. Felipe Paulino - @MIN
35. Rich Harden - LAA
36. A.J. Burnett - @TOR
37. Jake Arrieta - CLE
38. Jason Vargas - TEX
39. Bartolo Colon - @TOR
40. Bruce Chen - @MIN
41. Jeff Niemann - BOS
42. Andrew Miller - @TB

Extreme Caution Advised

43. Nick Blackburn - KC
44. Mitch Atkins - CLE
45. Brad Penny - CHW
46. Alfredo Simon - CLE
47. Tim Wakefield - @TB
48. Carlos Villanueva - NYY
49. Mitch Talbot - @BAL
50. Luke Hochevar - @MIN
51. Jeff Francis - @MIN
52. Jo-Jo Reyes - NYY

Notes:
There may be some smoke and mirrors involved, but Guillermo Moscoso has a 2.16 ERA through 50 innings. It's hard to see him getting bumped from the rotation, but who knows? ... 2011 is looking like a lost year for Brian Matusz, who was averaging 86.7 mph on his fastball before being demoted to Triple-A. Early reports on his time there are that the fastball is even slower, which to me indicates a rotator cuff issue. Hopefully I'm wrong and it's mechanical, but don't count on much from him this year. ... Yikes, six runs on 11 hits in 3.2 inning for Philip Humber in his last start. He's been so great this year, so we'll give him a pass, but could this be a sign of a poor second half to come? ... Derek Holland goes from a possible demotion to shutting out the A's in his last start. The A's aren't exactly the A's of the Bash Brothers era, but hopefully this is something the inconsistent young lefty can build upon. ... Max Scherzer remains a bit of an enigma. On one hand, he's helped fantasy owners to 10 wins and 96 strikeouts, but has done so via a 4.69 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Scherzer has allowed six or more runs in a start five times while also recording an 8-4-0-0-2-9 line against the Yankees. ... Nick Blackburn has a respectable 4.02 ERA, but he's allowed 13 runs in 8.1 innings over his last two starts, and his 4.6 K/9 and 1.2 HR/9 suggest he's not a lock to stick in the rotation the rest of the way. ... At age 29, Rich Harden has yet to top 150 innings in a single season, so expecting him to stay healthy the rest of this year is clearly a poor bet. He has to be owned, of course, in deeper formats until the next injury, but clearly there's not a large contingent of fantasy owners left who are buying in here. ... I traded Jason Vargas in a very deep keeper league last year, guessing that by now he'd have been figured out, but a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP say otherwise. His K/9 (6.1) is still far from special, but it's an improvement over last year's 5.4 and his BB/9 is also improved at 2.3. I still would hesitate to use him against the tougher offenses, but he's become a little less of a risk this year. ... Colby Lewis has had some ugly outings this year, but in his last four starts, Lewis has a 2.30 ERA over 27.1 innings with a solid 28:7 K:BB. Of course, it didn't hurt that two of those starts came against Houston, but Lewis should still be on track for a solid second half. ... Kyle Weiland is a nice prospect sleeper. The 24-year-old Red Sox prospect has a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 93 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket. Given the issues the Red Sox have had at the back end of their bullpen, Weiland could get a look.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100


1. Roy Halladay - @NYM
2. Jered Weaver - @OAK
3. Cliff Lee - @NYM
4. Justin Verlander - CHW
5. Clayton Kershaw - @ARI
6. Josh Beckett - @TB
7. CC Sabathia - @TOR
8. Tim Lincecum - @SD
9. Cole Hamels - @NYM
10. Jair Jurrjens - WAS
11. Matt Cain - @SD
12. David Price - BOS
13. James Shields - BOS
14. Dan Haren - @OAK
15. Felix Hernandez - TEX
16. Madison Bumgarner - @SD
17. Michael Pineda - TEX
18. Chris Carpenter - @CIN
19. Wandy Rodriguez - PIT
20. Ian Kennedy - LAD
21. Chad Billingsley - @ARI
22. C.J. Wilson - @SEA
23. Dan Hudson - LAD
24. Ubaldo Jimenez - MIL
25. Mat Latos - SF
26. Johnny Cueto - STL
27. Brandon Beachy - WAS
28. Justin Masterson - @BAL
29. Ervin Santana - @OAK
30. Matt Garza - FLA
31. Tim Stauffer - SF
32. Hiroki Kuroda - @ARI
33. Gio Gonzalez - LAA
34. Zack Greinke - @COL
35. Ricky Romero - NYY
36. Jeff Karstens - @HOU
37. Tim Hudson - WAS
38. Colby Lewis - @SEA
39. Ricky Nolasco - @CHC
40. Ryan Dempster - FLA
41. Bud Norris - PIT
42. Brian Duensing - KC
43. Mike Leake - STL
44. Anibal Sanchez - @CHC
45. Yovani Gallardo - @COL
46. Shaun Marcum - @COL
47. Josh Tomlin - @BAL
48. Joel Pineiro - @OAK
49. Trevor Cahill - LAA
50. Dustin Moseley - SF
51. Gavin Floyd - @DET
52. Carl Pavano - KC
53. Jeremy Guthrie - CLE
54. Barry Zito - @SD
55. Derek Holland - @SEA
56. Philip Hughes - @TOR
57. Edwin Jackson - @DET
58. Matt Harrison - @SEA
59. Carlos Carrasco - @BAL
60. Max Scherzer - CHW
61. Joe Saunders - LAD
62. Charlie Morton - @HOU
63. Francisco Liriano - KC
64. Jonathon Niese - PHI
65. James McDonald - @HOU
66. John Lannan - @ATL
67. Randy Wolf - @COL
68. Dillon Gee - PHI
69. Javier Vazquez - @CHC
70. Bronson Arroyo - STL
71. Brett Myers - PIT
72. Doug Fister - TEX
73. Brandon Morrow - NYY
74. Jason Hammel - MIL
75. Philip Humber - @DET
76. Brandon McCarthy - LAA
77. Felipe Paulino - @MIN
78. Kyle Lohse - @CIN
79. Rich Harden - LAA
80. A.J. Burnett - @TOR
81. Jake Arrieta - CLE
82. Jason Vargas - TEX
83. Bartolo Colon - @TOR
84. Bruce Chen - @MIN
85. Jeff Niemann - BOS
86. Aaron Harang - SF
87. R.A. Dickey - PHI
88. Livan Hernandez - @ATL
89. Andrew Miller - @TB
90. Rodrigo Lopez - FLA
91. Brad Hand - @CHC
92. Nick Blackburn - KC
93. Mitch Atkins - CLE
94. Brad Penny - CHW
95. Alfredo Simon - CLE
96. Juan Nicasio - MIL
97. Jason Marquis - @ATL
98. Tim Wakefield - @TB
99. Carlos Villanueva - NYY
100. Mitch Talbot - @BAL

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.