Jair Jurrjens

2017

There was no outlook written for Jair Jurrjens.

2013

It's hard to make heads or tails of Jurrjens at this point. Is he the former top prospect who posted a 2.60 ERA in 2009 and 2.96 ERA in 2011? Or is he the pitcher who posted a 4.64 ERA in 2010 and a 6.89 ERA in 2012 while also struggling in Triple-A both years? It all comes down to keeping a lower than average BABIP for Jurrjens. During his two good years, his opponents BABIPs were .268 and .269. The league average tends to hover around .300, which is exactly where Jurrjens was at during 2010. During his awful season in 2012 his BABIP was .354, and he allowed a lot of contact with a 3.5 K/9. Jurrjens' true talent level is likely as a mid-4.50s ERA, though he has clearly shown the ability to pitch much better than that. He'll likely need a change of scenery to get another chance as a big league starter.

2012

Jurrjens got off to a strong start last season and was 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA before the All-Star break. He then slumped by going 2-3 with a 5.32 ERA in eight starts after the break before going on the DL with a right knee injury in early August. He wasn't able to return before the end of the regular season, but threw in instructional league the final week and may have returned if the Braves made the playoffs. His knee isn't seen as an issue for 2012 as a result. However, Jurrjens' status with the Braves is a little unclear as Atlanta was reportedly looking to trade him in the offseason. With an increasing salary in arbitration and with several top prospects ready to crack the rotation, Jurrjens may not be in Atlanta for long even if he begins the season in the rotation. Wherever he lands, there are plenty of reasons to think he won't repeat last year's strong numbers. Jurrjens never had a good strikeout rate, and that declined to just 5.3 K/9IP last season. His average fastball velocity declined by two mph (to just 89 mph) and he benefited last season from a low .274 BABIP. While he induces groundballs, it's not at an elite level (just 42 percent last season), and he has mediocre control (90:44 K:BB ratio). He also had his season shortened from knee problems for a second consecutive season. Buyer beware as a result.

2011

Jurrjens struggled with injuries last season and couldn't recapture the form that made him one of the NL's best starters in 2009. He was already having a rough first month (6.38 ERA) before landing on the DL with a strained hamstring at the end of April. He returned in late June, but then suffered a knee injury in September that required surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear. The results sandwiched around the injuries saw a slight decline in his velocity and a big drop-off in his groundball rate to where he gave up more flyballs than groundballs for the first time in his Braves career. It's possible Jurrjens was just never right after getting off track with injuries, but his success before last season was always much better than his peripheral numbers suggested. He never had a great strikeout rate, owns mediocre control and while he induced groundballs, it was never extreme. He'll enter 2011 as the No. 4 starter for the Braves, but fantasy owners should make sure he's healthy and be wary of a return to his 2009 form.

2010

Jurrjens improved on his rookie season to become one of the NL's top starters last season. While Jurrjens doesn't have great peripheral numbers (he has just an average 6.3 K/9IP rate and a mediocre 152:75 K:BB ratio), he induces groundballs (1.37 G/F ratio the past two years) and keeps the ball in the park (just 15 home runs allowed). He'll enter next season as Atlanta's No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but the risk seems to the downside.

2009

Jurrjens had a strong first season in the majors and enters 2009 as one of Atlanta's top starters. Despite having just 30.2 innings above Double-A, Jurrjens started the season strong by going six or more innings in his first 10 starts en route to 13 wins and a third-place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. However, Jurrjens didn't have great peripheral numbers despite a 3.68 ERA. He had a mediocre strikeout rate (6.64 K/9IP) and control (139:70 K:BB ratio). While he'll be just 23 next season, don't overpay for last year's success.

2008

Jurrjens parlayed a strong year at Double-A into a late-season opportunity with the Tigers. He struggled with a bit of shoulder tendinitis in August but managed to come back and pitch fairly well to close out the season. The Braves certainly weren't concerned that there were any lingering shoulder problems as they went after Jurrjens as part of the Edgar Renteria deal. Jurrjens doesn't have overpowering stuff but he does have decent control and he's shown enough to suggest he could pitch out of the back of a major league rotation. The Braves are expected to give him an opportunity to earn a rotation spot this spring.

2007

Jurrjens, a non-drafted free agent from Curacao who signed in 2003, made the move to Double-A Erie last season after pitching very well at high-A. He relies on groundballs to get outs and doesn't have overpowering stuff so he's not the ideal fantasy pitching prospect. You can't quite be sure how his stuff will adapt to the majors. The Tigers might chose to start him at Triple-A this season and a strong performance there could earn him a cup of coffee in September.

2006

Jurrjens, signed as non-drafted free agent from Curacao in 2003, has a 91-92 mph fastball and good command of three pitches. The 20-year-old is another solid pitching prospect in the once barren Detroit system.