2025 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Updated NFL MVP Race (Week 14)

The 2025 NFL MVP odds now show a two-horse race, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford look like clear-cut favorites in the NFL MVP race. But mainstays like Josh Allen and Dak Prescott aren't out of the running yet.

Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the 2025 NFL MVP race, including the odds to win NFL MVP, the best NFL MVP bets to make, and a few long-shot plays to consider. Make sure you check out the current odds to win the Super Bowl as well. 

Current NFL MVP Odds Race: Week 14, 2025

The latest NFL Week 14 odds suggest this race could get even tighter this week. Below, I'll break down everything you need to know about the top contenders to win the award.

Note: All odds in table below were pulled from a variety of sportsbooks. They are the longest or "best" available odds as of the writing of this article. 

2025 NFL MVP Contenders 

Here are the top-three 2025 NFL MVP contenders according to the latest odds from top operators like BetMGM Sportsbook:

Drake Maye (-120) 

It only took the Patriots four seasons to find Tom Brady's successor. Drake Maye is second in EPA per play, fourth in success rate, and he leads the league with 9.6% completion percentage above expectation. His Patriots are seventh in EPA per play and seventh in PPG entirely because of Maye. He's first in total yards (3,733), accounting for nearly 80.0% of New England's yards this season. That's legitimate MVP-level play. 

If he leads this Patriots roster to the best record in football, it'll be hard to give this award to anyone else. That's more true than ever now, as NE will likely be without starting LT Will Campbell for the rest of the regular season. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Elite efficiency & statistical profile 
• ✅ Great narrative – leading underdog Patriots to 11-2 record (No. 1 in AFC East)
• ✅ Easy remaining schedule – should rack up easy wins & stats

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Needs a few big-time games to make up ground against Stafford, statistically
• ❌ Somehow still doesn't have one 300-yard passing performance
• ❌ Occasionally reckless play style makes him injury risk 

Matthew Stafford (+130)

Stafford leads all passers with 32 touchdowns and he's only thrown four interceptions. Unfortunately, two of those came in Week 13 during the Rams' shocking loss to the Carolina Panthers. That loss dropped Stafford from being the resounding favorite to being a close second behind Maye. But he has plenty of time to make up ground. The Rams are still the favorites to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If Stafford and the Rams keep this up, the voters might be inclined to reward him. The 37-year-old has never won league MVP, and this is almost certainly his last shot. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Best pocket-passing statistics in the league
• ✅ Excellent narrative – first MVP in 17th season is crowning achievement of HOF-level career
• ✅ 9-3 Rams likely have best shot to be top seed in the NFC

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ 37-year-old with lengthy injury history – any missed games hurt his chances 
• ❌ Will voters hold his tremendous supporting cast against him? 
• ❌ Brutal Week 13 loss to the Panthers, tossing two INTs

Dak Prescott (+1600) 

Were it not for Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott would probably be regarded as having the best pure pocket-passing season in the league. The Cowboys' signal-caller is on fire right now, averaging 314.0 passing yards per game with nine total touchdowns to two INTs during Dallas' three-game win streak. This resurgence has even gotten the Cowboys back into the NFC East race. If he does clinch the division crown, he'll have a real chance to take home his first MVP award. 

However, Dallas is still a long shot to make the playoffs. The Cowboys are two games back of the Packers in the Wild Card race, and they're two wins behind the Eagles in the NFC East. If Dallas misses the postseason, Prescott has no chance to win the award, regardless of what he does statistically. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Red-hot during Cowboys' three-game win streak
• ✅ Incredible pocket-passing statistics
• ✅ Dragging Dallas back into playoff contention

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Too little too late? 
• ❌ Dallas still a long shot to make the postseason

2025 Dark-Horse MVP Candidates

Each week I'll pick a few players, currently sitting outside the top three in the odds to win MVP, that I think have a real shot at winning. 

Jordan Love (+1900) 

Jordan Love has officially entered the 2025 MVP race, vaulting up to fourth in the odds to win MVP. Love is an analytics darling. He ranks No. 1 in EPA per play and adjusted EPA per play, No. 5 in success rate, No. 3 in completion percentage above expectation, and his Packers lead the league in EPA per play to boot. 

But Love's traditional counting stats aren't MVP-level. He ranks No. 10 in passing yards (2,794) and T-7 with 19 passing TDs. To me, that looks more like a Pro Bowler than an All-Pro. And the voters generally seem to rely on more traditional statistics like wins, yards, and touchdowns when deciding which QB to vote for. 

At +1900, I think you're setting money on fire by betting him right now. He has finished with fewer than 190 passing yards in half of his 12 starts, and he doesn't really supplement that with much rushing production. Other than advanced stats, which voters traditionally don't put much weight into, it's hard to see where Love separates himself from the competition. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Remarkably efficient – he's an analytics darling
• ✅ Dominant despite so-so receiving corps since Tucker Kraft went down
• ✅ Packers 8-3-1 still in contention for No. 1 seed in NFC

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Way behind Maye & Stafford in traditional passing stats
• ❌ Incredibly inconsistent – finished 6/12 starts with fewer than 190 passing yards
• ❌ Trailing the Bears in the NFC North; Packers sort of a long shot for No. 1 seed in NFC

Josh Allen (+3000) 

If you want to understand Josh Allen's MVP case, put on his Week 11 tape. He threw for 317 yards with 3 touchdowns, adding 40 yards and three more touchdowns with his legs. If you want to know why he might not win the award, put on his Week 12 tape. Allen was sacked 8 times and turned it over twice while accounting for no TDs. Allen likely needs a massive statistical season in order to justify winning back-to-back MVP awards, and he's running out of time to pad those stats.

But this is Josh Allen we're talking about. When he's on, no one can match his statistical output. And there's still an outside shot he goes on a Herculean run to close out the year. At +3000, he's a much more compelling value than Love. 

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ It's Josh Allen
• ✅ Terrible receiving corps – offense runs through Allen 
• ✅ Dominants win over Mahomes & Mayfield

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ He just won last year – he'll need an insane finish to justify back-to-back wins
• ❌ Down year statistically (by his lofty standards)
• ❌ Bills trailing Maye's Patriots in AFC East

Best 2025 NFL MVP Bets

Now that you have all the context surrounding the 2025 NFL MVP odds, I'll give you my best bets. Here are my best 2025 NFL MVP bets to make heading into Week 14: 

Dak Prescott (+1600)

You can make a real argument that Dak Prescott is the MVP. Prescott leads all qualified QBs in passing yards per game, and he's second in the NFL with 25 TD passes. His dominance has dragged the league's second-worst scoring defense to 6-5-1 record. Crucially, that's just enough to stay in postseason contention, as the NFL MVP hasn't gone to a player who missed the postseason since 1973. Unfortunately, Dallas still has a long way to go – the three NFC Wild Card teams all have a two- or three-game lead over the Cowboys. And they're still two wins behind the Eagles in the NFC East. 

But if you're a believer, the time to bet Prescott is right now. Dallas likely needs to win out to make the postseason. If Prescott beats the Lions in a must-win Week 14 game, he'll likely shoot up the board. And after Detroit, the next four games look winnable, facing the Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, and Giants. If he does punch Dallas' postseason ticket by ripping off an eight-game win streak, Prescott really might be the MVP. At +1600, he's the best value left on the board. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: +1600 (FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Current NFL MVP Predictions: Week 14

Each week, I'll update this section with my prediction to win the NFL MVP. This section will ignore the odds or value and just highlight who I think is most likely to win. Here's my latest NFL MVP prediction, as of Week 14. 

Drake Maye to Win NFL MVP

I've had Matthew Stafford here for the past few weeks, but I'm flipping back to my original pick: Drake Maye. In Week 13, Stafford torpedoed his case by tossing two picks in a terrible loss to the Panthers, while Maye delivered another stellar performance. Yes, Maye hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents this season. But he's more than made up for that by dragging a sub-par Patriots roster to the best record in football. 

Ian Hartitz recently pulled the NFL's supporting cast rankings, which is a composite of every team's PFF offensive grade (pass blocking, run blocking, receiving, etc.), everything except passing. Stafford's Rams were viewed as the league's second-best supporting cast, while Maye's Patriots were all the way down at 18th. That gulf has only grown more extreme, as Maye could be without the entire starting left side of his OL for the next few weeks. 

To put it simply, Drake Maye is doing more than just about anyone else in the league, and he's doing it with significantly less help. That's the textbook definition of an MVP. 

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: -120 (BetMGM Sportsbook) 

Compare All NFL MVP Odds: Week 14

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