2026 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Updated NFL MVP Race

The 2026-27 NFL MVP odds are still in infancy. But the early odds have Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Drake Maye. See sharp action on MVP odds to stay ahead of the competition. Make sure you check out the current odds to win the Super Bowl as well. 

Current NFL MVP Odds Race: 2026 Season

Note: All odds in table below were pulled from DraftKings. They are the longest or "best" available odds as of the writing of this article. 

2026-27 NFL MVP Contenders 

Here are the legitimate 2026-27 NFL MVP contenders according to the latest odds from top operators like BetMGM Sportsbook:

Josh Allen (+550)

Josh Allen is coming off another remarkable season in 2025, but it wasn't enough to get his second consecutive MVP award. Allen finished 2025 with 4,247 total yards and 39 total touchdowns, and was the only player in the NFL with 3,000+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards. His passer rating (104.3) was actually higher than it was during his 2024 MVP campaign (101.4), and he completed a higher percentage of his passes as well. 

Despite his stellar numbers, Allen's MVP chances faced an uphill battle in a year where several quarterbacks put together historic campaigns. The award often gravitates toward quarterbacks on the league's best teams, and while Buffalo remained a contender, the Bills finished the regular season two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Ultimately, the late-career resurgence of Matthew Stafford, and the Rams entering the postseason with the best Super Bowl Odds, were enough to sway voters away from Allen.

Looking ahead to 2026, Allen is vying for his second MVP in three seasons and enters as the odds-on favorite. He's a name voters trust, as Allen has finished in the top-5 in MVP voting in four consecutive seasons. He'll wind up on ballots due to familiarity, if nothing else. The same dual-threat capability exists, even though he's set to enter his age-30 season. While a foot injury (broken fifth metatarsal) is a concern for a mobile QB like Allen, he's expected to be ready to go after offseason surgery.

Allen also has a new WR1 in the form of DJ Moore following an offseason trade with Chicago. While 2025 was a down year by Moore's standards, it's worth noting the soon-to-be 29-year-old has played all 17 games in five consecutive seasons and has four 1,000-yard receiving campaigns under his belt. Moore is an immediate improvement to a receiver room formerly led by Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer.

Here's the full case for and against Josh Allen:

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Unique dual-threat value — one of the few QBs in the NFL to consistently put up 4,000+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards.
• ✅ History — he's been in the top-5 of MVP voting in four consecutive seasons. He's a name voters expect to be in the conversation
• ✅ He's coming off a year in which he recorded a career-high 69.3% completion percentage, showing continued growth as a passer.
• ✅ New Weapon — DJ Moore arrives via an offseason trade with Chicago and should immediately jump to the top of the WR depth chart.

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Does the foot injury, and the fact that Allen is turning 30, suggest possible load management, or rushing limitations?
• ❌ Will the Bills be successful enough this season to dethrone the Patriots in the AFC East?
• ❌ Voter fatigue — he already won the award once in 2024.

Lamar Jackson (+650)

This award could easily go to Lamar Jackson in 2026. Look at what he does on the field when he is fully healthy, and why he is one of the best in the NFL. 

After back-to-back First-Team All-Pro seasons in 2023 and 2024, Jackson suffered through an injury-marred down year in 2025, completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions across just 13 games. The rushed takes about his "decline" misses the obvious: this was a health story, not a talent story.

Let's zoom out. In 2024, Jackson completed 316 of 474 passes for career highs in passing yards (4,172), passing touchdowns (41), and passer rating (119.6). That kind of efficiency is historically rare. With 41 TD passes and four interceptions on 474 attempts, Jackson became the first QB with a TD pass percentage above 8.0% and an INT rate below 1.0% on at least 350 attempts. His 10.3 TD-to-INT ratio was third best all-time, and of the 22 times a quarterback has thrown 40-plus TDs in a season, Jackson had the fewest interceptions of any. He didn't even win MVP that year; Josh Allen did. But that's a conversation for another day. 

Now here's why the 2025 health spiral matters for 2026: it was never about regression; it was about accumulation. Jackson dealt with injuries to his hamstring, back, knee, ankle, toe, and illness — missing three games outright and being knocked out of two others during the season. Over a six-game stretch in November and December, he averaged just 177 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and five interceptions, failing to record a TD in three consecutive games for the first time in his career. Former MVP Matt Ryan said it plainly: when you're missing practice time due to injury, it's hard to stay sharp even when you're available to play. 

The Ravens finished 8-9. They fired John Harbaugh — their winningest coach after 18 seasons — as a result. A new era begins. New head coach Jesse Minter wants to build an offensive system where Jackson doesn't have to feel like he's "Superman" every snap. That's the right philosophy. For seven years, the Ravens have leaned on Jackson to carry the weight no single player should have to bear.

Here's what the résumé actually looks like when he's healthy: two MVP awards, a 2024 season that ranks among the most efficient in NFL history, and the NFL's all-time record for quarterback rushing yards. He's the only quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 800 in the same season, and was the first to reach 3,000 passing and 1,000 rushing in a single year. This is not a declining superstar. This is a 29-year-old who missed nearly a quarter of the 2025 season due to injuries that piled up like freight cars. 

The 2026 MVP race hasn't started yet. But here's who Lamar Jackson is when you clear the injury asterisk from the ledger:

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Unique dual-threat value —and has two MVP awards already. 
• ✅ The only QB in history with a TD pass rate above 8% and an INT rate below 1% on at least 350 attempts — a combination that had never been done before
• ✅ Most career rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history — and he's still active. He doesn't just add dimensions to an offense; he is the dimension.
• ✅ New coaching staff, new offensive coordinator, and a full offseason of rest after his most injury-riddled year. Every injury indicator points to bounce-back.
• ✅ The Ravens' top priority this offseason is positioning Jackson to return to MVP-worthy levels in 2026.

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Questions linger about whether Jackson can ever get to — and win — a Super Bowl, having never appeared in one despite being on the fast track to the Hall of Fame. 
• ❌ 2025 proved that injuries aren't a fluke. He's missed significant time in four of his last five seasons.

Joe Burrow (+1000)

The Bengals missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season in 2025, as Burrow missed a nine-game stretch that began in Week 3 due to turf toe. Cincinnati went a miserable 1-8 during his absence and was essentially out of the race by the time Burrow returned. If anything, that strengthens Burrow's case for MVP.

Burrow has now missed stretches of 7+ games in two of the last three seasons, but when healthy, the Cincinnati gunslinger is nothing short of elite. 

In his last full season in 2024, Burrow led the league in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43), and became just the third quarterback in NFL history to have at least 4,500 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and fewer than 10 interceptions. He did that with the 30th-ranked run game and 25th-ranked defense, but the effort didn't net him a single first-place vote.

Burrow still has the weapons to make another run, starting with the league's best receiving corps, led by Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The duo has already racked up a combined 10 1,000-yard seasons under Burrow.

The problem? That trio of players combines for over a $100 million cap hit in 2026, which means sacrifices on defense and overall depth. The Bengals still managed to find room for improvements to the D-line and secondary, but it's fair to question whether it will be enough to turn a horrific unit around (and give Burrow the team wins needed to be in consideration for the award).

The last item of note – voter fatigue actually works in Burrow's favor. He's had seasons on par with Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson, but he's the only one of that group without a trophy. The Bengals are roughly +210 in terms of odds to win the AFC North, but if Burrow leads THIS roster to the playoffs, it will be hard to count him out.

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Elite receiving corps, likely the best in the league
• ✅ Already has multiple seasons with MVP-caliber numbers
• ✅ Cincinnati aggressively improved its defense, leading to a more optimistic team outlook
• ✅ Last year's low numbers were due to injury, not performance. He's recovered from the toe injury that forced a 9-game absence.

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Injury history – Burrow has missed stretches of 7+ games in two of the last three seasons. If he's not in the lineup, the Bengals struggle.
• ❌ Team performance – the defense is marginally better, but is it enough to feel confident in overall team success?
• ❌ A deep MVP class featuring Allen, Jackson, Maye, Herbert & Mahomes.
• ❌ Lack of dual-threat capability.

Drake Maye (+1100)

Many will say that Maye was robbed of an MVP in 2025 – he was just one first-place vote shy in the third-closest race in NFL history. Some might say it was a career achievement award, but ultimately, the second-year QB lost to Matthew Stafford.

What Maye did in his age-22 season to even get into that conversation was incredible, if not historic. Maye led the league in completion percentage (72%), yards per attempt (8.9), and quarterback rating (113.5). That completion percentage broke Tom Brady's franchise record of 68.9%, and Maye's 13 games with a 100+ passer rating broke another one of Brady's records. He's already in rarefied air.

Maye's will have his work cut out in 2026, however, as he'll be playing the schedule of a first-place team. In fact, the Patriots aren't even the favorites to win the AFC East, as the Bills (-130) currently have the best odds. Defensive coordinators will also have a full season of film to study – and potentially counter – his tendencies.

New England's front office is prepared, though, and Maye enters the year with more ammo. The Pats added Romeo Doubs (55 catches, 724 yards, 6 TDs in 25') from the Packers via free agency, and while rumors of an AJ Brown trade have died down recently, it's still not outside the realm of possibility. GM Eliot Wolf also used the 28th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft (which he traded up for) to select Utah tackle Caleb Lomu. The supporting cast is undoubtedly better than a season ago.

Now, Maye strolls into 2026 as the reigning Super Bowl runner-up, with a year of elite performance under his belt and an even better roster around him. The leap from Year 2 to Year 3 is historically when great quarterbacks separate themselves from merely good ones. Mahomes did it. Allen did it. Burrow did it. Maye already looks like he belongs in that company.

The voters gave the 2025 MVP to Stafford's stat line. In 2026, Maye won't need voters to connect the dots for them.

👑 Case to Win MVP:

• ✅ Led the NFL in EPA per play and completion percentage above expectation in 2025 — the advanced metrics that most accurately predict sustained QB excellence.
• ✅ Took a 4-13 Patriots team to a 14-3 record and the AFC's No. 2 seed in just his second year. Season 3 is historically a big progression year for young QBs.
• ✅ Better supporting cast with Doubs via free agency and Lomu via the draft.

🛑 Case Against: 

• ❌ Will have a tougher schedule.
• ❌ Allen and Jackson will be tough competition. 
• ❌ Defensive coordinators will adjust to him. 
• ❌ No established track record – he'd have to repeat a historically great season that already wasn't enough to win the award.

Current NFL MVP Predictions: 2026 Season

Each week, I'll update this section with my prediction to win the NFL MVP. This section will ignore the odds or value and just highlight who I think is most likely to win. Here's my latest NFL MVP prediction, as of the 2026 Season. 

Josh Allen to Win NFL MVP

• 🏆 Best Current NFL MVP Odds: +550 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Compare All NFL MVP Odds: 2026 Season

Check out RotoWire's proprietary tool, which allows you to compare odds from every sportsbook to find the best value for your bets.