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Pitching Value Meter: Under the Radar

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.


Quick hits for the week:

Pretty funny to see the MLBPA file a grievance on behalf of Carlos Zambrano. All Zambrano did was quit on his team. I wonder what the players' associate would do if a team suspended a guy for going on a shooting spree? ...

Clayton Kershaw K count: 199 ...

Indians have the Royals and Mariners this week. Plan accordingly. ...

Cubs GM Jim Hendry got the ax on July 22, though we just found out about it on Friday. How did that not leak out earlier? Time to give Kim Ng a GM position. ...

Stephen Strasburg watch: Sept. 2 is the target date for his return, but after the phenom allowed five runs in 1.2 innings last time out, that date could get pushed back. ...

Good week to use your Arizona starters - home versus SD; on the road versus Washington. ...

Golf is a hard game, very hard. Why do course designers insist on so much water and tall weeds? Oh, and in case I have a reader who lives along Red Hawk golf course in Sparks, Nev., my apologies for the ball that smacked your roof.

Email:
vtadave@yahoo.com - I respond to these much quicker than tweets or the comments section.

Twitter:
@vtadave

For the week Aug. 22-28

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Cliff Lee - NYM, FLA
2. Zack Greinke - @PIT, CHC
3. Chris Carpenter - LAD, PIT
4. Matt Cain - SD, HOU
5. Johnny Cueto - @FLA, WAS
6. Roy Halladay - FLA
7. Tim Lincecum - SD
8. Ian Kennedy - @WAS, SD
9. Clayton Kershaw - @STL
10. Jair Jurrjens - @CHC, @NYM
11. Mike Minor - @CHC, @NYM
12. Mat Latos - @SF
13. Madison Bumgarner - HOU
14. Cole Hamels - FLA
15. Ryan Vogelsong - HOU
16. Tim Stauffer - @SF
17. Yovani Gallardo - CHC
18. Dan Hudson - @WAS
19. Tim Hudson - @NYM
20. Vance Worley - NYM
21. Brandon Beachy - @CHC
22. Jhoulys Chacin - HOU, @LAD
23. Shaun Marcum - @PIT
24. Roy Oswalt - NYM
25. Kyle Lohse - LAD, PIT
26. Ryan Dempster - ATL, @MIL
27. Randy Wolf - CHC
28. Nathan Eovaldi - @STL, COL
29. Jaime Garcia - LAD
30. Hiroki Kuroda - @STL
31. Jonathon Niese - @PHI, ATL
32. Mike Leake - WAS
33. Chad Billingsley - COL
34. Jordan Zimmermann - ARI, @CIN (tentative for CIN start given innings cap)
35. Ted Lilly - COL
36. Cory Luebke - @ARI
37. Joe Saunders - @WAS, SD
38. Jordan Lyles - @SF
39. Matt Garza - ATL
40. Marco Estrada - @PIT
41. Homer Bailey - @FLA
42. Josh Collmenter - SD
43. R.A. Dickey - ATL
44. Jonathan Sanchez - HOU
45. Javier Vazquez - CIN

Borderline Depending on League Format

46. Ross Detwiler - ARI, @CIN (not quite 12-team mixed league material just yet)
47. Bronson Arroyo - @FLA
48. Dontrelle Willis - WAS
49. Chris Capuano - ATL
50. Edwin Jackson - PIT
51. Wily Peralta - @PIT (tentative / speculative - could be someone else in doubleheader)
52. Wade LeBlanc - @ARI
53. Derek Lowe - @CHC
54. Ricky Nolasco - CIN, @PHI (11 runs? That hurts my NL-only league team a bit)
55. John Lannan - ARI
56. Brett Myers - @COL, @SF
57. Alex White - @LAD
58. Jake Westbrook - PIT
59. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
60. Bud Norris - @COL, @SF
61. Wandy Rodriguez - @COL
62. Henry Sosa - @SF
63. Livan Hernandez - ARI
64. Jeff Karstens - MIL, @STL
65. James McDonald - @STL
66. Wade Miley - @WAS
67. Esmil Rogers - @LAD
68. Aaron Harang - @ARI

Extreme Caution Advised

69. Dillon Gee - @PHI
70. Rodrigo Lopez - @MIL
71. Chris Volstad - CIN
72. Chien-ming Wang - @CIN
73. Charlie Morton - @STL
74. Brad Lincoln - MIL, @STL
75. Jason Hammel - HOU
76. Randy Wells - ATL
77. Clay Hensley - @PHI
78. Mike Pelfrey - @PHI
79. Casey Coleman - ATL, @MIL
80. Kevin Correia - MIL
81. Ross Ohlendorf - MIL
82. Aaron Cook - HOU

Notes:
There appears to be a good chance that Alex White (finger) will join his new team's rotation this weekend in Los Angeles. Kevin Millwood is the obvious candidate to get the boot, but he gets the Dodgers this Sunday in Colorado, so maybe he impresses enough to push Esmil Rogers aside. White tossed an impressive 7.2 scoreless innings in his latest minor league rehab start. ... It's looking like just two more starts before Jordan Zimmermann is shut down. He could be replaced by Brad Peacock or even that guy who went to college in San Diego. ... Mike Minor spun six shutout innings in his last start, though it was against the feeble Giants. It's going to be quite interesting to see what Atlanta does with its rotation over winter. They will certainly shop Derek Lowe (with piles of cash), but Jair Jurrjens would return far more value. ...ESPN has Vance Worley getting the start Tuesday after his rain-shortened last start. Check back Sunday to be sure he's still in that slot, though it won't matter too much either way, as he isn't in line for two starts. ... I'm projecting Wily Peralta to get a start in Monday's doubleheader for the Brewers. Peralta has a 2.08 ERA and 17:1 K:BB in 13 innings in his first two Triple-A starts. Grab him especially if you can keep him cheap next year. ... Former No. 6 overall pick Ross Detwiler is pitching well for the Nats this year with a 2.87 ERA in 31.1 innings. His 23:12 K:BB is just so-so, but in his last two starts, that mark is 12:4 in 11 innings. He's also generating nearly two groundballs for every flyball, so there's reason for optimism. He's no soft-tossing lefty either, averaging 92.2 mph with his fastball. ... Tommy Hanson (shoulder) is closing in on a return, but it's not likely to come this week. Pencil him in for the week of Aug. 29. ... Last year in the minors, Brandon Beachy finished with a 148:28 K:BB in 120 innings. Guess that wasn't a fluke.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Justin Verlander - @TB, @MIN
2. David Price - DET, @TOR
3. CC Sabathia - OAK
4. Jered Weaver - CHW
5. Felix Hernandez - @CLE
6. C.J. Wilson - BOS, LAA
7. Jon Lester - OAK
8. James Shields - @TOR
9. Colby Lewis - BOS, LAA
10. Jeff Niemann - DET, @TOR
11. Ricky Romero - KC
12. Josh Beckett - @TEX
13. Justin Masterson - SEA
14. Dan Haren - @TEX
15. Brandon Morrow - KC, TB
16. Fausto Carmona - SEA, KC
17. Ubaldo Jimenez - KC
18. Ervin Santana - CHW
19. Bartolo Colon - OAK, @BAL
20. Erik Bedard - @TEX, OAK
21. Brett Cecil - KC
22. Jake Peavy - @SEA
23. Max Scherzer - @TB
24. Mark Buehrle - @LAA
25. John Danks - @SEA
26. Josh Tomlin - SEA
27. Phil Hughes - OAK
28. Ivan Nova - @BAL
29. Jeremy Hellickson - DET
30. Gavin Floyd - @SEA
31. Carl Pavano - BAL, DET

Borderline Depending on League Format

32. Jason Vargas - @CLE, CHW
33. Bruce Chen - @TOR, @CLE
34. Derek Holland - LAA
35. David Huff - KC (give me a couple more starts before I'm convinced)
36. Gio Gonzalez - @BOS (tough to rank this low, but too many BB's plus Fenway...)
37. Wade Davis - DET
38. Felipe Paulino - @CLE
39. Michael Pineda - CHW (how the mighty has fallen)
40. Zach Stewart - @LAA
41. Brian Duensing - BAL, DET
42. John Lackey - @TEX, OAK
43. Doug Fister - @TB
44. Matt Harrison - BOS
45. Alexi Ogando - BOS
46. Rick Porcello - @MIN
47. Francisco Liriano - BAL
48. Kevin Slowey - BAL
49. Charlie Furbush - CHW
50. Jeanmar Gomez - SEA (speculative doubleheader starter)
51. Tim Wakefield - @TEX
52. Luke Hochevar - @TOR
53. Brad Penny - @TB, @MIN
54. Tommy Hunter - @MIN
55. Danny Duffy - @CLE
56. Blake Beavan - @CLE
57. Brandon McCarthy - @NYY, @BOS

Extreme Caution Advised

58. Rich Harden - @NYY
59. A.J. Burnett - @BAL
60. Jeremy Guthrie - @MIN, NYY
61. Henderson Alvarez - TB
62. Alfredo Simon - @MIN, NYY
63. Zach Britton - NYY
64. Jo-Jo Reyes - @MIN
65. Brian Matusz - NYY
66. Luis Perez - TB
67. Jeff Francis - @TOR
68. Nick Blackburn - DET
69. Jerome Williams - @TEX
70. Joel Pineiro - @TEX
71. Trevor Cahill - @NYY
72. Guillermo Moscoso - @BOS
73. Undecided SEA SP - @CLE

Notes: Freddy Garcia
has been placed on the DL with a finger injury, but it was retroactive, so expect Garcia to return for this weekend's doubleheader. ...Ouch. Phil Humber took a comebacker off his face Thursday. He was placed on the DL, with Zach Stewart his replacement. ... Trevor Cahill was brutal again Thursday and is now 3-12 with a 5.30 ERA since his 6-0 start. This could be a great buying opportunity unless, of course, he's hiding an injury. ... With just 10 wins and a brief DL stint that cut his innings total, Josh Beckett isn't a strong Cy Young candidate yet, but he was solid again in his last start and sports a 2.46 ERA. ... The Angels hope reclamation project Jerome Williams does his best Ryan Vogelsong impression, as Williams is replacing Triple-A bound Tyler Chatwood in the rotation. Williams had a 60:15 K:BB in 73.2 Triple-A innings, so don't write him off just yet. Williams, though, could have his start in Texas (ouch) skipped this week, leaving Ervin Santana as a two-start starter. ... It sounds like Tommy John surgery for Minnesota prospect Kyle Gibson, but we'll see. He's a former first-round pick. ... Confused on the Baltimore starters this week with the doubleheader against the Yankees and no off days. Might be best to just avoid them all. ... Luis Perez replaces Brad Mills for the Blue Jays, but Perez is 26 and the owner of subpar minor league strikeout rates, so he can best be ignored outside of AL-only formats. ... I don't have Andrew Miller penciled in for a start this week, but after seeing that he tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball Friday, perhaps he'll get another shot. Of course, that start was against the Royals, so perhaps not. ... I was wondering for some reason who had the most pitcher losses this year. My initial guess was Jeff Francis (how could you not pick a Royal?), but it's actually Jeremy Guthrie, who sits at 5-16 with a fairly respectable 4.55 ERA. Francis (4-14) is actually tied with Paul Maholm, J.A. Happ and the 2.88 ERA-toting Hiroki Kuroda.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Justin Verlander - @TB, @MIN
2. Cliff Lee - NYM, FLA
3. Zack Greinke - @PIT, CHC
4. David Price - DET, @TOR
5. Chris Carpenter - LAD, PIT
6. Matt Cain - SD, HOU
7. Johnny Cueto - @FLA, WAS
8. Roy Halladay - FLA
9. CC Sabathia - OAK
10. Tim Lincecum - SD
11. Jered Weaver - CHW
12. Ian Kennedy - @WAS, SD
13. Felix Hernandez - @CLE
14. Clayton Kershaw - @STL
15. Jair Jurrjens - @CHC, @NYM
16. C.J. Wilson - BOS, LAA
17. Mike Minor - @CHC, @NYM
18. Mat Latos - @SF
19. Jon Lester - OAK
20. James Shields - @TOR
21. Colby Lewis - BOS, LAA
22. Jeff Niemann - DET, @TOR
23. Ricky Romero - KC
24. Madison Bumgarner - HOU
25. Josh Beckett - @TEX
26. Cole Hamels - FLA
27. Ryan Vogelsong - HOU
28. Tim Stauffer - @SF
29. Justin Masterson - SEA
30. Dan Haren - @TEX
31. Brandon Morrow - KC, TB
32. Yovani Gallardo - CHC
33. Dan Hudson - @WAS
34. Tim Hudson - @NYM
35. Fausto Carmona - SEA, KC
36. Vance Worley - NYM
37. Ubaldo Jimenez - KC
38. Ervin Santana - CHW
39. Bartolo Colon - OAK, @BAL
40. Brandon Beachy - @CHC
41. Erik Bedard - @TEX, OAK
42. Jhoulys Chacin - HOU, @LAD
43. Shaun Marcum - @PIT
44. Roy Oswalt - NYM
45. Kyle Lohse - LAD, PIT
46. Ryan Dempster - ATL, @MIL
47. Randy Wolf - CHC
48. Nathan Eovaldi - @STL, COL
49. Jaime Garcia - LAD
50. Brett Cecil - KC
51. Hiroki Kuroda - @STL
52. Jonathon Niese - @PHI, ATL
53. Mike Leake - WAS
54. Jake Peavy - @SEA
55. Chad Billingsley - COL
56. Max Scherzer - @TB
57. Jordan Zimmermann - ARI, @CIN (tentative for CIN start given innings cap)
58. Mark Buehrle - @LAA
59. Ted Lilly - COL
60. Cory Luebke - @ARI
61. Joe Saunders - @WAS, SD
62. John Danks - @SEA
63. Jordan Lyles - @SF
64. Matt Garza - ATL
65. Josh Tomlin - SEA
66. Phil Hughes - OAK
67. Marco Estrada - @PIT
68. Homer Bailey - @FLA
69. Ivan Nova - @BAL
70. Jeremy Hellickson - DET
71. Gavin Floyd - @SEA
72. Josh Collmenter - SD
73. Carl Pavano - BAL, DET
74. R.A. Dickey - ATL
75. Jonathan Sanchez - HOU
76. Javier Vazquez - CIN
77. Ross Detwiler - ARI, @CIN (not quite 12-team mixed league material just yet)
78. Bronson Arroyo - @FLA
79. Dontrelle Willis - WAS
80. Jason Vargas - @CLE, CHW
81. Bruce Chen - @TOR, @CLE
82. Derek Holland - LAA
83. David Huff - KC (give me a couple more starts before I'm convinced)
84. Gio Gonzalez - @BOS (tough to rank this low, but too many BB's plus Fenway...)
85. Chris Capuano - ATL
86. Edwin Jackson - PIT
87. Wade Davis - DET
88. Felipe Paulino - @CLE
89. Michael Pineda - CHW (how the mighty has fallen)
90. Zach Stewart - @LAA
91. Wily Peralta - @PIT (tentative/speculative - could be someone else in doubleheader)
92. Wade LeBlanc - @ARI
93. Derek Lowe - @CHC
94. Ricky Nolasco - CIN, @PHI (11 runs? That hurts my NL-only league team a bit)
95. Brian Duensing - BAL, DET
96. John Lackey - @TEX, OAK
97. Doug Fister - @TB
98. Matt Harrison - BOS
99. Alexi Ogando - BOS
100. John Lannan - ARI

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.