There's a dirty word in the fantasy game, and it starts with the letter “R.” There are a lot of terms that you might be thinking of given that lead in, but the one that is most applicable for our current discussion is “regression.”
There are a few things that we know with near certainty. We know that Brandon Beachy isn't going to finish the year with an ERA under 2.00 (it's currently 1.87). We know that Josh Hamilton isn't going to hit 60 homers (he currently has 21). We know that Carlos Ruiz isn't going to hit .368 this year to lead baseball. How do we know these things? The easiest answer is common sense.
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