Roger Clemens

Clemens went 7-6 with a 2.30 ERA and a 102/29 K/BB ratio in 113.1 innings. We all know the story here. If he comes back for one more year, he'll be a top-10 pitcher in whatever league he's in.

The scourge of writers on deadline is a free agent on New Year's Day, and might remain so deep into spring. If he plays, you have to consider him a top-10 NL starter, even in 80% of a season.

Clemens became the oldest pitcher to win a Cy Young award in 2004 at age 42. He hasn't lost a step at his age and should be among the NL's best starters again if he returns. Expect a decision late in the offseason if he'll return with the Astros or retire.

Clemens changed his mind about retirement and decided to join friend Andy Pettitte in Houston. While Clemens didn't show any signs of age last season, the risk is to the downside in a hitters park and with his age well past 40.

Clemens posted the third highest ERA (4.35) of his career in 2002, but looking at his underlying numbers, he pitched just about as well as he did in 2001 when he won the Cy Young award. Clemens' K/BB ratio of 192/63 was in line with his career marks, and his K/IP ratio of 192/180 was actually better than his career mark and the best he has posted since his dominant 1998 season with Toronto. Moreover, he didn't allow an inordinate amount of hits (172) or home runs (18). If Clemens were 10 years younger, we would feel very comfortable in forecasting a season with more wins and a better ERA in 2003 on the basis of last season's numbers. But Clemens will turn 41 next August, and as much of a horse as he has been, he will go steeply downhill at some point in the next couple seasons. Our gut tells us that he will still be good in 2003, but if you bid on him, be aware of his downside.