RotoWire Partners

Pitching Value Meter: Harvey Rises to the Top

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week of May 27-June 2

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Matt Harvey - NYY, at MIA (as long as Harvey suppresses NYY's ability to hit HRs off RHP, he's headed toward an amazing week)
2. Adam Wainwright - at KC, SF
3. Jeff Samardzija - at CWS, ARI
4. Madison Bumgarner - at OAK, at STL (tough 5.11 ERA in May only pushes season ERA to 2.89, telling you how great his April was)
5. Cliff Lee - at BOS, MIL
6. Gio Gonzalez - BAL, at ATL (shaking off rusty April with 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 27 IP)
7. Mat Latos - CLE, at PIT (trip to PIT may be damage control outing v. CLE, which is handling most challengers)
8. Clayton Kershaw - at COL (still the top NL arm and possibly top MLB arm, but one start in a hostile environment doesn't compare to several excellent arms getting two starts with at least one favorable matchup apiece)
9. Stephen Strasburg - at ATL (15 K in 12 IP over two starts v. ATL this year)
10. Jordan Zimmermann - at BAL (ERA/WHIP make up for lack of Ks, yet real K potential still exists)
11. Shelby Miller - SF
12. Johnny Cueto - at PIT
13. Lance Lynn - KC
14. Cole Hamels - MIL
15. Matt Cain - at STL (only a rough trip to COL has kept him from a huge May; still has 3.45 ERA in four starts even including the COL outing)
16. Trevor Cahill - TEX, at CHC (still starting my one-start aces ahead of him, but it's close)
17. Mike Minor - TOR
18. Patrick Corbin - at CHC
19. A.J. Burnett - DET (13th is the highest-ranked OPS he's faced this year; he's excellent, but several two-start studs and other one-start studs with a favorable matchup lands him this low)
20. Paul Maholm - at TOR, WAS (has bounced back brilliantly from each of his disaster outings)
21. Zack Greinke - LAA, at COL (two tough opponents plus they may continue to ease him back limiting him to 90-100 pitches regardless of how he's doing)
22. Jose Fernandez - at TB, NYM
23. Hyun-Jin Ryu - LAA, at COL
24. Travis Wood - CWS (Sox are AL's lowest and MLB's sixth-lowest in OPS against lefties)
25. Andrew Cashner - SEA (Ks haven't come as expected, but 2.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP as SP more than make up for it)
26. Kyle Kendrick - BOS
27. Scott Feldman - CWS
28. Homer Bailey - at CLE (the Indians are a team to fear, even with strong arms like Bailey)
29. Wade Miley - at TEX
30. Matt Garza - ARI
31. Wandy Rodriguez - CIN (1.93 ERA and 9.3 K:BB at home, 6.11 ERA and 1.5 K:BB on road)
32. Kris Medlen - TOR
33. Brandon McCarthy - at TEX (season has really turned with mechanical fix in May yielding a 1.98 ERA in 36.3 IP over five starts)
34. Ian Kennedy - TEX, at CHC (tough offense and tough venue shave down the confidence in his two-start week a bit)
35. Kevin Slowey - at TB, NYM (sharp in latest outing after two duds; he's solid, but not the superstud we saw through his first seven)
36. Francisco Liriano - at DET, CIN (off to a brilliant start, but will be heavily challenged with a pair of tough matchups)
37. Julio Teheran - WAS (2.41 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in his last five)
38. Tim Lincecum - OAK
39. Ross Detwiler - BAL, at ATL
40. Edwin Jackson - at CWS, ARI (skills are far better than the results; can he start turning the corner against a pair of former teammates?)
41. Tim Hudson - at TOR, WAS (huge K improvement from 14 percent to 19 percent is quite impressive; if he starts stranding runners again, he's a mid-3.00s guy)
42. Jorge de la Rosa - at HOU, LAD
43. Jhoulys Chacin - at HOU, LAD
44. Kyle Lohse - MIN, at PHI (if healthy; a replacement would plummet down the ranks as their Triple-A arms offer nothing of import)
45. Jonathon Niese - NYY, at MIA
46. Mike Leake - CLE, at PIT (his worst start of the year was in PIT where he allowed five in six innings)
47. Tyler Cloyd - at BOS, MIL
48. Clayton Richard - at SEA, TOR (expected to be activated May 28)
49. Ricky Nolasco - TB (a sneaky WHIP guy as walks and hits allowed are way down even though ERA is still near 4.00)
50. Shaun Marcum - at MIA (trip to Miami is the best remedy for a 6.59 ERA)
51. Yovani Gallardo - at PHI
52. Marco Estrada - at MIN
53. Jonathan Pettibone - BOS (succeeding with modest skills including a gem against CLE, but that formula usually catches up to a pitcher)
54. Eric Stults - SEA

CAUTION
55. Ted Lilly - at LAA
56. Chris Capuano - at LAA
57. Juan Nicasio - HOU
58. Barry Zito - OAK (he's rejoined us back on Earth)
59. Jason Marquis - TOR
60. Dan Haren - at BAL (good luck figuring him out)
61. Bronson Arroyo - at CLE
62. Tyler Chatwood - HOU
63. Tom Koehler - TB
64. Jeff Locke - DET (pushed way down by modest skills and facing remarkably tough lineup)
65. Dillon Gee - at NYY
66. Alex Sanabia - NYM
67. John Gast - KC
68. Jeremy Hefner - at NYY
69. Tyler Lyons - at KC, SF (solid debut, but this non-prospect needs to prove more before being trusted)
70. Jeanmar Gomez - at DET, CIN
71. Chad Gaudin - at OAK, at STL (best guess at Vogelsong replacement; Michael Kickham wouldn't rate any higher)
72. Edinson Volquez - at SEA, TOR (not even striking guys anymore out as he trashes your ratios)
73. Jon Garland - LAD
74. Wily Peralta - MIN, at PHI
75. Hiram Burgos Replacement - MIN (unnamed replacement will either face Minnesota at home or at Target Field; it could be Mike Fiers who throws Saturday meaning it'd be in Minnesota)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - at ARI, KC
2. Justin Verlander - PIT, at BAL (we haven't seen a three-start run like this from JV in quite some time, but it appears mechanical as opposed to stuff-related, meaning it's fixable)
3. James Shields - STL, at TEX
4. Chris Sale - CHC, at OAK (shoulder tendinitis cost him a start, but 23 scoreless IP streak calms some of the worries)
5. Clay Buchholz - PHI, at NYY
6. Hiroki Kuroda - at NYM, BOS (keep an eye on him and the bum calf, but he isn't expected to miss any starts)
7. Felix Hernandez - at SD
8. Anibal Sanchez - at PIT
9. Jon Lester - at PHI
10. Hisashi Iwakuma - at MIN (a nice soft landing for him after his worst outing of the year, which unsurprisingly came in CLE)
11. Matt Moore - at MIA
12. Max Scherzer - BAL (obscene skills should yield a better ERA, but a couple shaky outings have inflated it to 3.61)
13. CC Sabathia - BOS
14. Jake Peavy - at CHC (quietly dominating as Sale once again steals the headlines)
15. Derek Holland - ARI
16. Doug Fister - at PIT (mini-Scherzer in that skills deserve much better than 3.62 ERA; room for improvement)
17. Justin Masterson - CIN
18. Jered Weaver - at LAD, HOU (projected to return Monday or Tueday, which likely will take Blanton's second start)
19. R.A. Dickey - at ATL (homers are the key: 17 of 31 ER and 7 of 9 HR allowed in 3 starts)
20. John Lackey - at PHI
21. Ryan Dempster - PHI, at NYY
22. Zach McAllister - at CIN, TB
23. C.J. Wilson - at LAD, HOU
24. Ervin Santana - STL, at TEX (very similar to Dickey: 13 of 22 ER and 9 of 10 HR allowed in 3 starts; trip to TEX bumps him down a bit)
25. Alex Cobb - at CLE (love what he's done this year, but CLE thrashes the pitches of his arsenal)
26. David Phelps - NYM (toting a 3.27 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 33 IP as a starter)
27. Andy Pettitte - BOS (slated to return on Jun 1)
28. Tommy Milone - at SF
29. Jeremy Hellickson - MIA, at CLE (who wants to hear more about CLE's tough offense? OK, no one, but it can erase a great start against MIA quickly)
30. Jarrod Parker - SF, CWS (three straight QS with 3.10 ERA in 20.3 IP including a trip to TEX)
31. Jose Quintana - CHC, at OAK
32. Jeremy Guthrie - at STL
33. Justin Grimm - ARI
34. John Danks - at CHC (decent season debut v. MIA on Friday)
35. Jason Vargas - LAD (continuing trend he established in SEA where he dominates at home and falters on road)
36. Scott Kazmir - CIN
37. Brandon Morrow - ATL, at SD (far too maddening to trust twice in a week when safer one-start options exist)
38. Scott Diamond - at MIL, SEA (HRs are an issue with strike zone-pounder like Diamond; his two opponents rank 4th and 5th in HRs v. lefties)
39. A.J. Griffin - at SF
40. Phil Hughes - at NYM (Pettitte's slated to return June 1 taking Hughes' 2-start week and giving NYY six arms this week)
41. Dan Straily - SF, CWS
42. Chris Tillman - WAS

CAUTION
43. Felix Doubront - at NYY
44. Rick Porcello - PIT, at BAL (throws gems v. CLE and at TEX only to give up 5 ER vs. MIN in latest outing ... because why not?!)
45. Ubaldo Jimenez - at CIN, TB (he's also known to throw random gems against great teams only to get thrashed by would-be tomato cans)
46. Bartolo Colon - CWS
47. Nick Tepesch - KC
48. Bud Norris - COL, at LAA
49. Brandon Maurer - SD, at MIN
50. Jason Hammel - at WAS, DET
51. Kevin Gausman - at WAS, DET (his debut wasn't too bad from a real baseball standpoint, and I'd expect him to get better, but I want to see more before trusting him for two starts)
52. Martin Perez - at ARI, KC (Ogando could return during weekend set against KC robbing Perez of his second start)
53. Jake Odorizzi - MIA, at CLE (Price replacement gets pushed back to face MIA instead of NYY, but trip to CLE almost cancels out MIA goodness)
54. Corey Kluber - TB (back-to-back QS after getting destroyed by DET, including one against the same Tigers)
55. Dylan Axelrod - at OAK
56. Wade Davis - at TEX
57. Jerome Williams - HOU
58. Lucas Harrell - at COL
59. Joe Saunders - at SD (he has a crazy 2.41/11.25 home/road ERA split)
60. Vidal Nuno - NYM
61. Joe Blanton - LAD
62. Kevin Correia - SEA (never saw his ERA staying awesome with modest skills; has 6.75 ERA in May with seven K in 21.3 IP)
63. Mark Buehrle - ATL, at SD
64. Miguel Gonzalez - DET (from here on, these guys can only hurt your fantasy team)
65. Freddy Garcia - WAS
66. Chad Jenkins - at SD
67. Jordan Lyles - COL, at LAA
68. Erik Bedard - at COL
69. Dallas Keuchel - at LAA
70. Aaron Harang - SD, at MIN
71. Luis Mendoza - at STL
72. Mike Pelfrey - at MIL, SEA
73. Samuel Deduno - MIL
74. P.J. Walters - MIL
75. Ramon Ortiz - at ATL (unofficial as Sean Nolin was immediately sent back down with no replacement named yet)

MLB TOP 100

1. Yu Darvish - at ARI, KC
2. Matt Harvey - NYY, at MIA
3. Justin Verlander - PIT, at BAL
4. Adam Wainwright - at KC, SF
5. James Shields - STL, at TEX
6. Chris Sale - CHC, at OAK
7. Clay Buchholz - PHI, at NYY
8. Hiroki Kuroda - at NYM, BOS
9. Jeff Samardzija - at CWS, ARI
10. Madison Bumgarner - at OAK, at STL
11. Cliff Lee - at BOS, MIL
12. Gio Gonzalez - BAL, at ATL
13. Mat Latos - CLE, at PIT
14. Felix Hernandez - at SD
15. Anibal Sanchez - at PIT
16. Clayton Kershaw - at COL
17. Stephen Strasburg - at ATL
18. Jordan Zimmermann - at BAL
19. Shelby Miller - SF
20. Jon Lester - at PHI
21. Hisashi Iwakuma - at MIN
22. Matt Moore - at MIA
23. Max Scherzer - BAL
24. Johnny Cueto - at PIT
25. Lance Lynn - KC
26. CC Sabathia - BOS
27. Jake Peavy - at CHC
28. Derek Holland - ARI
29. Doug Fister - at PIT
30. Justin Masterson - CIN
31. Cole Hamels - MIL
32. Matt Cain - at STL
33. Trevor Cahill - TEX, at CHC
34. Jered Weaver - at LAD, HOU
35. Mike Minor - TOR
36. Patrick Corbin - at CHC
37. A.J. Burnett - DET
38. Paul Maholm - at TOR, WAS
39. R.A. Dickey - at ATL
40. John Lackey - at PHI
41. Zack Greinke - LAA, at COL
42. Jose Fernandez - at TB, NYM
43. Ryan Dempster - PHI, at NYY
44. Zach McAllister - at CIN, TB
45. Hyun-Jin Ryu - LAA, at COL
46. C.J. Wilson - at LAD, HOU
47. Ervin Santana - STL, at TEX
48. Travis Wood - CWS
49. Andrew Cashner - SEA
50. Kyle Kendrick - BOS
51. Scott Feldman - CWS
52. Homer Bailey - at CLE
53. Wade Miley - at TEX
54. Matt Garza - ARI
55. Wandy Rodriguez - CIN
56. Kris Medlen - TOR
57. Brandon McCarthy - at TEX
58. Ian Kennedy - TEX, at CHC
59. Alex Cobb - at CLE
60. David Phelps - NYM
61. Andy Pettitte - BOS
62. Kevin Slowey - at TB, NYM
63. Tommy Milone - at SF
64. Jeremy Hellickson - MIA, at CLE
65. Francisco Liriano - at DET, CIN
66. Julio Teheran - WAS
67. Tim Lincecum - OAK
68. Ross Detwiler - BAL, at ATL
69. Edwin Jackson - at CWS, ARI
70. Tim Hudson - at TOR, WAS
71. Jorge de la Rosa - at HOU, LAD
72. Jhoulys Chacin - at HOU, LAD
73. Kyle Lohse - MIN, at PHI
74. Jonathon Niese - NYY, at MIA
75. Mike Leake - CLE, at PIT
76. Tyler Cloyd - at BOS, MIL
77. Clayton Richard - at SEA, TOR
78. Ricky Nolasco - TB
79. Jarrod Parker - SF, CWS
80. Jose Quintana - CHC, at OAK
81. Shaun Marcum - at MIA
82. Jeremy Guthrie - at STL
83. Justin Grimm - ARI
84. Yovani Gallardo - at PHI
85. Marco Estrada - at MIN
86. John Danks - at CHC
87. Jason Vargas - LAD
88. Scott Kazmir - CIN
89. Brandon Morrow - ATL, at SD
90. Scott Diamond - at MIL, SEA
91. A.J. Griffin - at SF
92. Phil Hughes - at NYM
93. Jonathan Pettibone - BOS
94. Dan Straily - SF, CWS
95. Chris Tillman - WAS
96. Eric Stults - SEA
97. Ted Lilly - at LAA
98. Chris Capuano - at LAA
99. Juan Nicasio - HOU
100. Felix Doubront - at NYY