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Pitching Value Meter: King of the Hill

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

NOTE: A few rotations are still unsettled so I made my best guess. Stay tuned as opponents won't change, but rather names might change with our short week.

For the week July 19-21

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Adam Wainwright - SD
2. Matt Harvey - PHI
3. Clayton Kershaw - at WAS (a healthy WAS lineup is a good bit tougher than SD or PHI hence this slotting, but he's just as ace-level as Waino and Harvey)
4. Stephen Strasburg - LAD
5. Mat Latos - PIT (ASB came at the perfect time as his two July starts weren't so good)
6. Gio Gonzalez - LAD
7. Cliff Lee - at NYM (push to .500 likely keeps him in PHI, at least through July 31)
8. Jordan Zimmermann - LAD (he's right there with the Waino-Harvey-Kersh trio in 4x4 leagues that don't use Ks)
9. Cole Hamels - at NYM
10. Mike Leake - PIT (has NL's best WHIP and second-best ERA since May 15)
11. A.J. Burnett - at CIN
12. Francisco Liriano - at CIN (how much more does he need to do before you believe?)
13. Madison Bumgarner - ARI
14. Homer Bailey - PIT
15. Mike Minor - at CWS (the Sox don't hit, but U.S. Cellular exposes his biggest flaw: home runs)
16. Zack Greinke - at WAS
17. Lance Lynn - SD (had lull in June last year before finishing strong; ASB hits at a great time for him, too)
18. Matt Cain - ARI
19. Jeremy Hefner - PHI (only Jeff Locke has bested his 2.14 ERA in the NL since May 24)
20. Zack Wheeler - PHI (back-to-back starts showed what the fuss was about just as folks jumped off the bandwagon)
21. Kyle Lohse - MIA
22. Jeff Locke - at CIN (skills still say ERA is a underserved by more than 1.50 runs)
23. Ricky Nolasco - at WAS
24. Jacob Turner - at MIL (don't forget, he was a huge prospect with DET)
25. Paul Maholm - at CWS
26. Nathan Eovaldi - at MIL (five straight quality starts to open his season)
27. Tim Hudson - at CWS
28. Jeff Samardzija - at COL (had a funk like Lynn last year before rebounding, but falls far this week because of venue and matchup)
29. Kyle Kendrick - at NYM
30. Yovani Gallardo - MIA (every time you start trusting him, he pulls the rug out)
31. Randall Delgado - at SF
32. Jorge De La Rosa - CHC
33. Wade Miley - at SF

CAUTION

34. Tyler Chatwood - CHC (does his best work on the road)
35. Eric Stults - at STL (does his best work at home)
36. Henderson Alvarez - at MIL
37. Wily Peralta - MIA
38. Ian Kennedy - at SF
39. Edwin Jackson - at COL
40. Carlos Villanueva - at COL
41. Jhoulys Chacin - CHC
42. Jason Marquis - at STL
43. Edinson Volquez - at STL
44. Jake Westbrook - SD
45. Chad Gaudin - ARI

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Felix Hernandez - at HOU (ho-hum, just quietly leading the AL in ERA)
2. John Lackey - NYY (he's been excellent this year)
3. David Price - at TOR (1.08 ERA in 25 IP since return, though admittedly against HOU, CWS, HOU)
4. Anibal Sanchez - at KC
5. Justin Verlander - at KC (a lot of panic for a 3.50 ERA; watch a start or two and you'll see the stuff is still sharp)
6. Hisashi Iwakuma - at HOU (great closeout to the first half against a tough team: 7 IP, 3 ER v. LAA)
7. Bartolo Colon - at LAA (how is he not the biggest surprise [pun fully intended] in baseball?)
8. Doug Fister - at KC (despite some ugly starts, he rarely looks like he was destroyed even with 6 ER tagged on him)
9. Jered Weaver - OAK
10. James Shields - DET
11. Ervin Santana - DET (he and Shields are down here because of opponent)
12. Hiroki Kuroda - at BOS
13. Jeremy Hellickson - at TOR (now 5 straight gems: 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 IP incl. outings v. BOS, DET, TOR)
14. Bud Norris - SEA (tough close to half in STL, but had a 2.90 ERA in 90 IP spanning 14 GS before that)
15. Felix Doubront - NYY
16. Derek Holland - BAL (O's don't smash lefties like they do righties and Holland fared well in BAL on July 8)
17. Corey Kluber - at MIN
18. CC Sabathia - at BOS (too good to ever bench, but not the superstud we'd grown used to; tough matchup, too)
19. Jake Peavy - ATL (how much of his two 6-ER outings before DL stint were under duress? Likely auditioning for trade)
20. John Danks - ATL
21. Justin Masterson - at MIN (first 10: 2.83 ERA; last 10: 4.68 ERA; the difference is OPS v. LHB: 621 to 846)
22. Miguel Gonzalez - at TEX
23. Erik Bedard - SEA
24. A.J. Griffin - at LAA (wasted by CHC, but then eight scoreless v. BOS?)
25. C.J. Wilson - OAK
26. Jon Lester - NYY (he's just not right since May 20 and the fastball, curveball are to blame)
27. Jordan Lyles - SEA
28. Chris Tillman - at TEX (too many HR to feel safe in this venue)
29. Wei-Yin Chen - at TEX (sharp vs. TEX in return from the DL, but now at TEX won't be easy)
30. Dan Straily - at LAA
31. Andy Pettitte - at BOS
32. Martin Perez - BAL (DET corrected that ERA right quick)
33. Joe Saunders - at HOU (not easy to figure him out this year, but should be solid here)

CAUTION

34. Chris Archer - at TOR (1.69 ERA in his last 5 GS, including NYY, DET, HOU, MIN, HOU; DET got him for 3 ER in 5 IP)
35. R.A. Dickey - TB
36. Scott Kazmir - at MIN
37. Esmil Rogers - TB
38. Jerome Williams - OAK
39. Jose Quintana - ATL
40. Mark Buehrle - TB
41. Mike Pelfrey - CLE
42. Kevin Correia - CLE
43. Jeremy Guthrie - DET
44. Scott Diamond - CLE
45. Ross Wolf - BAL

MLB TOP 50

1. Adam Wainwright - SD
2. Matt Harvey - PHI
3. Clayton Kershaw - at WAS
4. Felix Hernandez - at HOU
5. John Lackey - NYY
6. Stephen Strasburg - LAD
7. David Price - at TOR
8. Mat Latos - PIT
9. Anibal Sanchez - at KC
10. Justin Verlander - at KC
11. Gio Gonzalez - LAD
12. Cliff Lee - at NYM
13. Hisashi Iwakuma - at HOU
14. Jordan Zimmermann - LAD
15. Cole Hamels - at NYM
16. Bartolo Colon - at LAA
17. Mike Leake - PIT
18. A.J. Burnett - at CIN
19. Francisco Liriano - at CIN
20. Doug Fister - at KC
21. Jered Weaver - OAK
22. Madison Bumgarner - ARI
23. Homer Bailey - PIT
24. Mike Minor - at CWS
25. James Shields - DET
26. Ervin Santana - DET
27. Justin Masterson - at MIN
28. Hiroki Kuroda - at BOS
29. Jeremy Hellickson - at TOR
30. Bud Norris - SEA
31. Zack Greinke - at WAS
32. Felix Doubront - NYY
33. Derek Holland - BAL
34. Lance Lynn - SD
35. Matt Cain - ARI
36. Jeremy Hefner - PHI
37. Corey Kluber - at MIN
38. CC Sabathia - at BOS
39. Jake Peavy - ATL
40. John Danks - ATL
41. Zack Wheeler - PHI
42. Kyle Lohse - MIA
43. Jeff Locke - at CIN
44. Ricky Nolasco - at WAS
45. Jacob Turner - at MIL
46. Paul Maholm - at CWS
47. Nathan Eovaldi - at MIL
48. Tim Hudson - at CWS
49. Miguel Gonzalez - at TEX
50. Jeff Samardzija - at COL

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