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Pitching Value Meter: Wainwright vs. his Nemesis

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week May 12-18

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Felix Hernandez - TB, at MIN
Note: Ho-hum, no K in last start but still quietly brilliant ... again
2. Yu Darvish - at HOU
Note: Darvish and Tanaka can do a lot here even with just one start given the competition
3. Masahiro Tanaka - at NYM
4. James Shields - COL, BAL
Note: Rough slate, but at least he gets both at home and has already handled BAL this year
5. David Price - at SEA, at LAA
Note: Have to love the 9.7 K:BB, but the 1.5 HR/9 and 10.2 H/9 suggest command isn't quite as sharp as his control
6. Max Scherzer - at BOS
7. Sonny Gray - at CLE
Note: Yet to allow more than 3 ER in an outing
8. Justin Verlander - at BAL
9. Jon Lester - DET
10. Hisashi Iwakuma - TB
Note: Looking healthy in his two starts after missing a month
11. Scott Kazmir - at CLE
12. Yordano Ventura - BAL
Note: His best start of the season came in BAL earlier
13. Jose Quintana - at HOU
Note: Did you move him down your draft board after that horrific spring outing? Oops
14. Hiroki Kuroda - NYM, PIT
Note: A run better than his 4.43 ERA, and this pair of outings will help him get there
15. C.J. Wilson - at TOR, TB
16. Jesse Chavez - CWS, at CLE
17. Chris Tillman - at KC
Note: Perfect team for a guy with HR issues to face
18. Garrett Richards - at PHI
19. Corey Kluber - at TOR
Note: So good when he's on ... but maddeningly inconsistent through 8 starts
20. John Lackey - DET
Note: 35-year-old is overlooked for his strong 2013 and his solid start in 2014
21. Rick Porcello - at BAL, at BOS
22. Danny Salazar - at TOR, OAK
Note: Coming out of it a bit in his last three, but I'm still a little reticent, especially at TOR
23. Justin Masterson - at TOR
Note: Now has a 2.94 ERA over his last five since back-to-back 5 ER duds
24. Jake Peavy - at MIN
Note: MIN offense has returned to earth, but it does exploit Peavy's biggest weakness: walks
25. Jered Weaver - TB
Note: Chiseled ERA down to 3.48 with a 1.78 over his last four
26. CC Sabathia - at NYM
27. Zach McAllister - OAK
28. Chris Archer - at LAA
Note: Great or awful with only one start (5 IP/3 ER vs. BAL) falling in between
29. Martin Perez - TOR
Note: Knew he'd come back after back-to-back shutouts; he's good, not great
30. Drew Smyly - at BAL
31. Dallas Keuchel - TEX
Note: Showed some flashes last year, too; this is intriguing
32. Jason Vargas - BAL
33. Matt Harrison - at HOU
Note: Hey, someone who tamed the Rockies!
34. David Phelps - PIT
Note: After 4 ER in first two appearances - 1.32 ERA, 14:6 K:BB ratio in 13.7 IP
35. Phil Hughes - BOS
Note: After three straight 5-IP/4-ER outings to open year, has 2.05 ERA in last four with 15:1 K:BB ratio
36. Mark Buehrle - LAA, at TEX
Note: Pitching great, but he's not sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, and these two will likely remind him of that
37. John Danks - at OAK, at HOU
38. Colby Lewis - at HOU, TOR
39. R.A. Dickey - CLE, at TEX
Note: Just don't know what to make of him
40. Ricky Nolasco - BOS, SEA
Note: Appears to be putting April behind him with two strong starts to open May
41. Roenis Elias - at MIN
42. Jake Odorizzi - at SEA
Note: Inept M's offense gives Odorizzi a chance to string a pair together
43. Danny Duffy - COL
Note: Gotta be careful with the Rockies, but at least it's not in Coors
44. Tyler Skaggs - TB
45. Josh Tomlin - OAK
46. Drew Hutchison - at TEX
47. Dustin McGowan - CLE
Note: Wearing the insulin pump on the mound has seemed to really help him over his last three

SIT


48. Bud Norris - DET, at KC
Note: All three BAL arms have been strong lately, but don't love the matchup against DET
49. Wei-Yin Chen - DET
50. Ubaldo Jimenez - DET
51. Robbie Ray - at BOS
52. Clay Buchholz - at MIN
Note: Don't feel confident in him even against a sinking MIN offense
53. Robbie Ross - TOR
54. Felix Doubront - at MIN, DET
55. Hector Santiago - at PHI, TB
56. Kyle Gibson - SEA
57. Chris Young - at MIN
Note: Sweet K:BB ratio
58. Brandon Maurer - TB
59. Scott Feldman - TEX
60. Drew Pomeranz - CWS
Note: Avoiding CWS as a rule with middle tier of talents or below
61. Jarred Cosart - CWS
62. Tommy Milone - CWS
63. J.A. Happ - CLE
64. Miguel Gonzalez - DET
65. Brad Peacock - TEX, CWS
Note: Having two starts almost hurts when it's these two teams
66. Vidal Nuno - NYM, PIT
67. Cesar Ramos - at SEA, at LAA
68. Samuel Deduno - SEA
69. Erik Bedard - at LAA
70. Jeremy Guthrie - BAL
71. Andre Rienzo - at OAK
72. Scott Carroll - at OAK
73. Hector Noesi - at HOU
74. Collin McHugh - CWS
75. Kevin Correia - BOS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Adam Wainwright - CHC, ATL
Note: Oddly enough the Cubs have given Waino 10 of his 13 ER this year
2. Jordan Zimmermann - at ARI, NYM
Note: Since MIA left him with a 1.7-IP/5-ER dud - 1.78 ERA and 5.6 K:BB ratio in 30.3 IP
3. Cliff Lee - LAA, CIN
4. Clayton Kershaw - at ARI
Note: Layoff really seemed to hurt him as he "only" went seven
5. Johnny Cueto - SD
6. Jose Fernandez - at LAD
Note: Baseball loves to keep us honest - like Fernandez getting ripped in SD
7. Stephen Strasburg - at ARI
Note: Feels like he hasn't been great, but deeper look suggests he really has
8. Gerrit Cole - at MIL, at NYY
Note: Haven't seen the Ks from late last year, but he's gone 6-plus IP in all but one outing
9. Dan Haren - MIA, at ARI
10. Marco Estrada - PIT, at CHC
11. Julio Teheran - at SF
Note: Amazing this year and the Ks are on the rise lately, too - 29 in 30 IP over last four starts
12. Zack Greinke - at ARI
Note: Rain snuffed out his last start after just three innings
13. Michael Wacha - CHC
14. Gio Gonzalez - NYM
15. Nathan Eovaldi - at SF
Note: Emergence has given the Marlins a dynamic 1-2 punch atop their rotation
16. Madison Bumgarner - ATL
Note: After allowing 6-plus hits in every April start, he's allowed 7 total in two May starts
17. Andrew Cashner - at CIN, at COL
Note: Trip to Coors almost eliminates upside of two-start week, though Cashner has arsenal to survive
18. Zack Wheeler - at NYY, at WAS
19. Lance Lynn - CHC
20. Matt Cain - MIA
Note: Marlins go from '27 Yankees at home to '03 Tigers on the road
21. Tim Hudson - MIA
22. Josh Beckett - MIA
23. Alex Wood - at STL
Note: Cards are brutal against lefties
24. Ervin Santana - at STL
25. Matt Garza - at CHC
Note: Inconsistent thus far, but should be able to handle his former mates again
26. Wily Peralta - PIT
27. Jeff Samardzija - at STL
Note: Hasn't been much talk of his brilliant start (1.62 ERA in 50 IP)
28. Tyson Ross - at CIN
29. Ian Kennedy - at CIN
Note: Resurgence isn't just Petco-fueled - 1.42 ERA in 19 road IP
30. Wade Miley - LAD
31. A.J. Burnett - LAA
Note: Trips to TOR are scary, he's been excellent otherwise
32. Dillon Gee - NYY
Note: Appears to be working through endurance issues with 110-plus pitches in each of last two during which he has 0.00 ERA in 14 IP
33. Homer Bailey - at PHI
Note: Has to be moved down, but the component numbers show a much better pitcher
34. Cole Hamels - CIN
Note: Rocky start, but he'll be fine
35. Doug Fister - at ARI
Note: Rough debut, but you just have to give him some time
36. Mike Minor - at SF
Note: Early issues with HRs through 2 starts, but just stick with him
37. Francisco Liriano - at MIL
38. Travis Wood - at STL, MIL
39. Mike Leake - SD, at PHI
Note: He's been the guy we've seen the last few years - a solid, but unspectacular arm
40. Tyler Lyons - CHC, ATL
41. Jon Niese - at WAS
Note: Love what he's done, but the Nats really beat up on lefties so I don't love him this week
42. Alfredo Simon - SD
43. Jason Hammel - at STL
Note: Don't necessarily buy a 2.45 ERA, but I buy that's a reliable all-formats arm
44. Kyle Lohse - at CHC
45. Ryan Vogelsong - ATL, MIA
Note: Excellent in his last three - 0.89 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 20.3 IP
46. Tom Koehler - at LAD, at SF
Note: Skills aren't sub-2.00 ERA worthy, but he has some talent
47. Gavin Floyd - at SF
48. Tim Lincecum - ATL, MIA
Note: If it was at MIA, he'd probably be a "Consider" at best; just hasn't been good, but there's a lot of swing-and-miss in these two teams
49. Yovani Gallardo - PIT
50. Aaron Harang - at STL
51. Bartolo Colon - at NYY, at WAS
Note: 16 of his 26 ER have come in two starts
52. Henderson Alvarez - at LAD
Note: Skeptical dating to last year, but there's something here

CONSIDER


53. Shelby Miller - ATL
Note: Devolved into a one-pitch pitcher, but it's kinda working ... kinda
54. Jenrry Mejia - NYY
Note: How badly do you need Ks?
55. Jordan Lyles - SD
Note: Still nervous about the modest skills supporting his fast start, but at least it's SD coming into town
56. Tanner Roark - NYM
57. Bronson Arroyo - WAS, LAD
Note: Excellent in his last three; he's working his way back to his high-3.00s/low-4.00s watermark
58. Jake Arrieta - at STL, MIL
59. Brandon McCarthy - WAS
Note: Either dominates or gets destroyed; love the K and velo surges
60. Jhoulys Chacin - SD
Note: Can Coors even help this SD offense?
61. Juan Nicasio - SD
62. Paul Maholm - MIA
Note: MIA is so bad on the road that even Maholm becomes worthwhile

SIT


63. Jacob Turner - at LAD, at SF
Note: Keeping a close eye on him
64. Edinson Volquez - at MIL
65. Charlie Morton - at NYY
66. Wandy Rodriguez - at NYY
67. Edwin Jackson - MIL
68. Josh Collmenter - WAS, LAD
69. Jorge de la Rosa - at KC
70. Franklin Morales - at KC
71. Kyle Kendrick - CIN
72. Robbie Erlin - at COL
73. Eric Stults - at COL
74. Reds Fifth Starter
Note: No one slotted for "at PHI" on Saturday just yet
75. Roberto Hernandez
Note: Not needed in a 5-game week

MLB TOP 100


1. Adam Wainwright - CHC, ATL
Note: Oddly enough the Cubs have given Waino 10 of his 13 ER this year
2. Felix Hernandez - TB, at MIN
Note: Ho-hum, no K in last start but still quietly brilliant ... again
3. Jordan Zimmermann - at ARI, NYM
Note: Since MIA left him with a 1.7-IP/5-ER dud - 1.78 ERA and 5.6 K:BB ratio in 30.3 IP
4. Cliff Lee - LAA, CIN
5. Clayton Kershaw - at ARI
Note: Layoff really seemed to hurt him as he "only" went seven
6. Johnny Cueto - SD
7. Yu Darvish - at HOU
Note: Darvish and Tanaka can do a lot here even with just one start given the competition
8. Masahiro Tanaka - at NYM
9. Jose Fernandez - at LAD
Note: Baseball loves to keep us honest - like Fernandez getting ripped in SD
10. Stephen Strasburg - at ARI
Note: Feels like he hasn't been great, but deeper look suggests he really has
11. James Shields - COL, BAL
Note: Rough slate, but at least he gets both at home and has already handled BAL this year
12. David Price - at SEA, at LAA
Note: Have to love the 9.7 K:BB, but the 1.5 HR/9 and 10.2 H/9 suggest that his command isn't quite as sharp as his control
13. Max Scherzer - at BOS
14. Gerrit Cole - at MIL, at NYY
Note: Haven't seen the Ks from late last year, but he's gone 6-plus IP in all but one outing
15. Dan Haren - MIA, at ARI
16. Marco Estrada - PIT, at CHC
17. Julio Teheran - at SF
Note: Amazing this year and the Ks are on the rise lately, too - 29 in 30 IP over last four starts
18. Zack Greinke - at ARI
Note: Rain snuffed out his last start after just three innings
19. Michael Wacha - CHC
20. Gio Gonzalez - NYM
21. Nathan Eovaldi - at SF
Note: Emergence has given the Marlins a dynamic 1-2 punch atop their rotation
22. Madison Bumgarner - ATL
Note: After allowing 6-plus hits in every April start, he's allowed 7 total in two May starts
23. Sonny Gray - at CLE
Note: Yet to allow more than 3 ER in an outing
24. Justin Verlander - at BAL
25. Jon Lester - DET
26. Hisashi Iwakuma - TB
Note: Looking healthy in his two starts after missing a month
27. Scott Kazmir - at CLE
28. Yordano Ventura - BAL
Note: Best start of the season came in BAL earlier
29. Jose Quintana - at HOU
Note: Did you move him down your draft board after that horrific spring outing? Oops.
30. Hiroki Kuroda - NYM, PIT
Note: A run better than his 4.43 ERA, and this pair of outings will help him get there
31. C.J. Wilson - at TOR, TB
32. Jesse Chavez - CWS, at CLE
33. Andrew Cashner - at CIN, at COL
Note: Trip to Coors almost eliminates upside of two-start week, though Cashner has the arsenal to survive
34. Zack Wheeler - at NYY, at WAS
35. Lance Lynn - CHC
36. Matt Cain - MIA
Note: Marlins go from '27 Yankees at home to '03 Tigers on the road
37. Tim Hudson - MIA
38. Josh Beckett - MIA
39. Alex Wood - at STL
Note: Cards are brutal against lefties
40. Ervin Santana - at STL
41. Matt Garza - at CHC
Note: Inconsistent thus far, but should be able to handle his former mates again
42. Wily Peralta - PIT
43. Jeff Samardzija - at STL
Note: Hasn't been much talk of his brilliant start (1.62 ERA in 50 IP)
44. Tyson Ross - at CIN
45. Ian Kennedy - at CIN
Note: Resurgence isn't just Petco-fueled - 1.42 ERA in 19 road IP
46. Chris Tillman - at KC
Note: Perfect team for a guy with HR issues to face
47. Garrett Richards - at PHI
48. Corey Kluber - at TOR
Note: So good when he's on ... but maddeningly inconsistent through 8 starts
49. John Lackey - DET
Note: 35-year-old is overlooked for his strong 2013 and his solid start in 2014
50. Rick Porcello - at BAL, at BOS
51. Wade Miley - LAD
52. A.J. Burnett - LAA
Note: Trips to TOR are scary, excellent otherwise
53. Dillon Gee - NYY
Note: Appears to be working through endurance issues with 110-plus pitches in each of last two during which he has 0.00 ERA in 14 IP
54. Danny Salazar - at TOR, OAK
Note: Coming out of it a bit in his last three, but I'm still a little reticent, especially at TOR
55. Homer Bailey - at PHI
Note: Has to be moved down, but the component numbers show a much better pitcher
56. Cole Hamels - CIN
Note: Rocky start, but he'll be fine
57. Doug Fister - at ARI
Note: Rough debut, but you just have to give him some time
58. Justin Masterson - at TOR
Note: Now has a 2.94 ERA over his last five since back-to-back 5 ER duds
59. Jake Peavy - at MIN
Note: MIN offense has returned to earth, but it does exploit Peavy's biggest weakness: walks
60. Jered Weaver - TB
Note: Chiseled his ERA down to 3.48 with a 1.78 over his last four
61. CC Sabathia - at NYM
62. Zach McAllister - OAK
63. Chris Archer - at LAA
Note: Great or awful with only one start (5 IP/3 ER v. BAL) falling in between
64. Mike Minor - at SF
Note: Early issues with HRs through 2 starts, but just stick with him
65. Francisco Liriano - at MIL
66. Travis Wood - at STL, MIL
67. Mike Leake - SD, at PHI
Note: He's been the guy we've seen the last few years - a solid, but unspectacular arm
68. Tyler Lyons - CHC, ATL
69. Jon Niese - at WAS
Note: Love what he's done, but the Nats really beat up on lefties so I don't love him this week
70. Alfredo Simon - SD
71. Jason Hammel - at STL
Note: Don't necessarily buy a 2.45 ERA, but I buy that's a reliable all-formats arm
72. Kyle Lohse - at CHC
73. Ryan Vogelsong - ATL, MIA
Note: Excellent in his last three - 0.89 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 20.3 IP
74. Tom Koehler - at LAD, at SF
Note: Skills aren't sub-2.00 ERA worthy, but he has some talent
75. Gavin Floyd - at SF
76. Martin Perez - TOR
Note: Knew he'd come back after back-to-back shutouts; he's good, not great
77. Drew Smyly - at BAL
78. Dallas Keuchel - TEX
Note: Showed some flashes last year, too; this is intriguing
79. Tim Lincecum - ATL, MIA
Note: If it was at MIA, he'd probably be a "Consider" at best; just hasn't been good, but there's a lot of swing-and-miss in these two teams
80. Yovani Gallardo - PIT
81. Aaron Harang - at STL
82. Jason Vargas - BAL
83. Matt Harrison - at HOU
Note: Hey, someone who tamed the Rockies!
84. David Phelps - PIT
Note: After 4 ER in first two appearances - 1.32 ERA, 14:6 K:BB ratio in 13.7 IP
85. Phil Hughes - BOS
Note: After three straight 5-IP/4-ER outings to open year, has 2.05 ERA in last four with 15:1 K:BB ratio
86. Mark Buehrle - LAA, at TEX
Note: Pitching great, but he's not a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher and these two will likely remind him of that
87. John Danks - at OAK, at HOU
88. Colby Lewis - at HOU, TOR
89. R.A Dickey - CLE, at TEX
Note: Just don't know what to make of him
90. Ricky Nolasco - BOS, SEA
Note: Appears to be putting April behind him with two strong starts to open May
91. Roenis Elias - at MIN
92. Jake Odorizzi - at SEA
Note: Inept M's offense gives Odorizzi a chance to string a pair together
93. Bartolo Colon - at NYY, at WAS
Note: 16 of his 26 ER have come in two starts
94. Henderson Alvarez - at LAD
Note: Skeptical dating to last year, but there's something here
95. Danny Duffy - COL
Note: Gotta be careful with the Rockies, but at least it's not in Coors
96. Tyler Skaggs - TB
97. Josh Tomlin - OAK
98. Shelby Miller - ATL
Note: Devolved into a one-pitch pitcher, but it's kinda working ... kinda
99. Jenrry Mejia - NYY
Note: How badly do you need Ks?
100. Jordan Lyles - SD
Note: Still nervous about the modest skills supporting his fast start, but at least it's SD coming into town