East Coast Offense: Expanding Your Skill Set

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Expanding the Fantasy Owner Skill Set: Josh Gordon, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson

The transition from football fan to fantasy owner once seemed simple: know a lot about the NFL and apply it to your fantasy team. Along the way, you had to understand how your league's parameters impacted player value, and most people picked that up by playing for a few years, learning they could wait on quarterbacks and tight ends if they didn't land elite ones. But now fantasy football is requiring us to understand the NFL's drug testing policy, the intersection between collective bargaining agreements and state law, public opinion on issues like domestic violence, marijuana use and corporal punishment. This entails a different kind of work, and it's asking us to expand our skills and knowledge base. It's actually not so different from injury analysis - where once we used to just throw up our hands and curse our bad luck, now we have Jeff Stotts and Stephania Bell helping us figure things out.

Accordingly, while I'm not an expert in these other areas the way they are with sports medicine, it's worth delving into the details here the way they would if a player had a knee injury and making the most informed decisions we can. To that end, here's my take on these three players' situations:

Adrian Peterson - the Vikings said he'll play this week in New Orleans, but since then have been destroyed in the media and urged by the Governor of Minnesota to sit him. They've also lost their Radisson sponsorship, and Anheuser-Busch has expressed disappointment with how the NFL has handled both Peterson's and Rice's cases to date. The ship has sailed with Rice - more on him below - but the league could still act regarding Peterson.

Bottom line, I think Peterson is at significant risk for a suspension even if per the terms of the NFL collective bargaining agreement, the league is supposed to let the legal process take its course first. It might even be worthwhile from a public relations standpoint for the league to suspend him and lose if he takes them to court.

Moreover - and this consideration kept me from drafting Ray Rice in a league - how is Peterson going to cope with being so reviled? It's easy to say it won't affect him on the field, and maybe it won't, but he's probably stressed out of his mind, not sleeping, etc. And this isn't Kenny Britt or Marshawn Lynch who's been down this road before - Peterson's been worshipped his whole career as a superstar and model citizen.

Derek VanRiper actually dropped him in our Stopa 10K league because he doesn't want to root for him, and while I wouldn't consider doing that, I'm hesitant to bid more than roughly half my FAAB budget on him, virtually assuring someone else will get him. If I had Peterson, and I could move him for Zac Stacy or, someone like him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[Update: an hour after this article went up, the Vikings deactivated Peterson for Week 3, and it appears he's out indefinitely.] So much for getting Stacy for him. At this point, I'd drop him if I needed a starter at any position, or if there were a high-upside bench option like...

Josh Gordon - It looks like the official verdict is in, and that's 10 games for Gordon, who pled guilty to a DWI earlier early Tuesday, ensuring he won't be suspended for it per the old policy. Gordon could still sue for a temporary restraining order for the reduced suspension, and his case looks even better now that the NFL itself raised the marijuana-testing threshold above the amount he had in his blood. In fact, it's now unclear exactly what Gordon's four violations were (you need four to trigger 10 games), and nobody seems interested in investigating it. Here's Browns beat reporter, Mary Kay Cabot, describing his violations:

Gordon violated the substance abuse policy at least once in Stage One to move to Stage Two; he violated it twice in Stage Two to earn the two-game/four-check suspension in 2013 for what he said was codeine in his cough syrup; he violated it a fourth time in Stage Three when he tested positive for marijuana in January or February.

Let's set aside his fourth violation was below the new NFL threshold and possibly contrary to Ohio law, we're not even told what his first and third violations were. The second one was for, unbelievably, codeine in his cough syrup, but that's all the specific information Cabot provides.

For that reason, it's hard to know what's actually going on, but it seems Gordon has a good case under the known facts. It also doesn't hurt that the NFL now looks like the bad guy after the Rice incident and has much bigger problems and more serious crimes on its hands with Peterson. Moreover, the threat of the NFL not reinstating Gordon until late in training camp 2015 is no longer on the table with the reduced suspension. Finally, it made sense for Gordon not to sue until the new drug agreement was completed and the threshold raised. So I'd say Gordon is a buy over the next 24 hours on the chance it happens, but if he doesn't sue Wednesday or Thursday morning, I doubt he'll file at all. There are no longer any obstacles to his suit, so if Week 3 kicks off without him, expect him to be out nine more weeks.

Ray Rice - Rice was suspended only two games for knocking his wife out in an elevator, but later got an indefinite ban from the league after the video of the punch rekindled outrage at the lenient punishment. But Rice apparently told commissioner Roger Goodell the truth before the video surfaced, and it's clear the league had the second video before it handed out the original suspension.

Accordingly, as Sports Illustrated's Michael McCann details, Rice has several options:

They include: Rice petitioning a court for an injunction that would make him eligible as a free agent following Week 2; Rice filing a civil lawsuit against the NFL for monetary damages; Rice, along with the NFLPA, filing a grievance pursuant to the collective bargaining agreement and obtaining an independent review; or the NFLPA filing an unfair labor practices charge.

As McCann also points out, the NFL has a strong incentive to settle with Rice:

Ray Rice's greatest weapon against NFL is threat of pretrial discovery and forcing Goodell under oath. Might be reason for NFL to cut deal.

— Michael McCann (@McCannSportsLaw) September 17, 2014

Week 2 Observations

• We ranked Nick Foles No. 4 on our preseason QB list, and I think that was the right call. The Eagles run so many plays and have such a dangerous run game that defenses have to commit resources to stopping it. That leaves receivers wide open down the field, and Foles throws deep more than any other quarterback in the league. Moreover, as we saw Monday night, Foles can rack up yards with LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles taking short passes a long way.

• Sproles should spell his name "sPPRoles."

• If you're worried about Sproles' presence hurting LeSean McCoy, don't be. From Pro Football Focus' Mike Clay:

L McCoy has handled 71% of the Eagles carries so far. He handled 68% last season. Targets (13%) same as in 2013. Don't worry about Sproles

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 17, 2014

• A healthy Ahmad Bradshaw continues to outplay Trent Richardson, but Richardson looked fine when he carried the ball Monday night - except for the two occasions when he dropped it. I'd imagine the Colts would be inclined to give Bradshaw an increase in work, but given his extensive injury history, I'm not sure how much the split will change unless Richardson fumbles again.

• Incidentally, on the Eagles winning drive, Sproles caught a screen pass for 17 yards with about a minute left and was tackled at the 19-yard line. Why did the Colts tackle him, ensuring the Eagles would run the clock down to three seconds and attempt a short field goal? Had they let Sproles score, they would have gotten the ball back down seven and have a chance to tie it.

• Injuries to A.J. Green, Jamaal Charles and Robert Griffin were especially huge because they happened in the first quarter of their games. Not only (with the exception of Griffin) do you lose a key player for who knows how long, but you probably lose a week on top of that. Going from Charles' projected production to zero is a much bigger hit than going from Charles to whoever you use as a fill-in. In a 12-team league, I'd rather know I were missing a star for two weeks in advance, than have him leave in the first quarter of one game.)

• Crazy that in addition to Charles, Green and Griffin, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Vernon Davis and DeSean Jackson all sat out significant portions of Sundays games. That's a lot of dead lineup slots.

• The Giants lost mostly because of bad special teams play and turnovers, but they looked like an actual NFL team. Eli Manning was sharp (though his pocket awareness is still poor), and the offensive line played better. Victor Cruz had some inopportune drops, though two of them, in his defense, would have been great catches had he brought them in. Larry Donnell looked competent, though Arizona has been especially soft on tight ends since the start of last year. And Rueben Randle made an appearance. But forget about the specifics – they key is the offense no longer looks like a wasteland.

• There's no good reason for Doug Martin to get his job back from Bobby Rainey if and when Martin gets healthy.

• It's depressing to think about where RGIII was two years ago and where he is now. I doubt the Redskins' projected win total even moved after his injury. Pierre Garcon was barely used in this game – though Washington was way ahead all game – and Kirk Cousins did target him when he subbed in for Griffin last year.

• I still don't understand why Gus Bradley insists on using Chad Henne. Is it really necessary to throw 2014 away before it even starts?

• The Saints are a 7-9-type team on the road, so why is everyone so surprised when they lose? If the Browns are a 6-10 type, they'll beat the 7-9 type 50 percent of the time at home. It's insane the Saints were laying 6.5 points. Jimmy Graham is still usable on the road, but I'm staying away from Marques Colston, and I'd even sit Drew Brees if I had another QB like Andy Dalton or Ben Roethlisberger with a good matchup. At home, Brees is 2013 Peyton Manning, and I'm happy to lay the 9.5 against the Vikings. (I'd also happily start Colston despite his lack of targets in Week 2.)

• The Seahawks are a 9-7 type team on the road, and the Chargers would probably win 10 or 11 games if they played at home all the time, so you should not have laid the wood here, either. Percy Harvin got a lucky (out of bounds) TD run early, but was a non-factor after that. The Chargers dominated time of possession, and when the Seahawks had the ball, Russell Wilson spread it around to eight different receivers with no one getting more than six targets. Even Marshawn Lynch saw only six carries, a rare game-flow situation for the Seahawks who are usually playing with a lead. It's also possible the low workload was due to his back bothering him.

•Antonio Gates looks like the rare veteran who got healthy and rediscovered his old skills. You see it in baseball with players like Chipper Jones, Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz, but it rarely happens in the NFL, so I wonder how sustainable it is.

• For the second-straight week, the Broncos got off to a big lead, then went into a shell, only to see the opposing team knocking on the door with their final possession. They will not win a Super Bowl doing that

•Montee Ball had 12 carries for 60 yards, but you'd think he'd have had a bigger workload given the Broncos were leading all game. C.J. Anderson had five carries, while Ronnie Hillman had none.

• I didn't watch the Vikings game, but it's odd with Peterson out the Vikings never handed the ball to Cordarrelle Patterson.

• It didn't take long for EJ Manuel to discover Sammy Watkins is his No. 1 receiver.

• The Packers looked like themselves again this week with Jordy Nelson especially having a huge game, Randall Cobb scoring twice and Davante Adams getting involved. Eddie Lacy didn't do much for the second straight week, but the Jets had the toughest per-carry run defense in the league last year. It should get better for him. Right now he looks like his predecessor at Alabama.

•Eric Decker had a good day, but it could have been huge had Geno Smith not missed him on a wide open bomb and had he not later left with a leg injury. But we all knew Decker could never stay healthy without Peyton.

• I hope the Texans think throwing a touchdown to J.J. Watt is a gimmick reserved for uncompetitive games against the Raiders and don't make it a regular thing. If they do, it's simply unfair in IDP leagues.

• How often do you see a road team get manhandled by one of the league's more physical defenses for the first half, then come out and destroy that defense in the second? The Bears not only beat the 49ers decisively in their own building, they made it look easy.