College Football Picks: Picking Games Week 15

This is it. By this time next week, we'll know the participants in the first-ever college football playoffs. This will be my last time to predict the outcome, but before we get to that, let's look at what we know already.

We know that the committee is not a big fan of Florida State, well it's not that it doesn't like the Seminoles, it just doesn't appreciate the way FSU has won games all season. That said, we know that the committee is not going to move FSU out of the top-4 unless it loses a game.

We know that the committee likes TCU ... more than Baylor anyhow. Some people find this odd as Baylor beat TCU, but when you look at the body of work of each team, you have to give the nod to TCU. So bravo to the committee for not bowing to public pressure on that one.

We know that Alabama and Oregon are locks ... as long as they continue to win.

Here's what we don't know.

We don't know how the committee will treat Ohio State without its top-2 QBs. Will an impressive win this week be enough to leapfrog TCU or FSU?

That's an easy question compared to the following. What happens if FSU loses this week? Do the Noles stay in the mix or does OSU jump them? What about Baylor? Do the Bears jump back ahead of TCU if they impress against a solid KSU team?

Here's my take. First, I expect Alabama and Oregon to win this week. I'm not overlooking either opponent -- Missouri is solid, and Arizona is good as well -- but unlike years past, the top teams are not going to falter down the stretch this year.

Second, TCU will thump Iowa State ... severely. There's no room for error this week; the Horned Frogs can't afford to look bad for even a minute this week.

Third, Florida State likely will win again this week and look very average doing so ... and it won't matter because the Seminoles will be undefeated.

Fourth, OSU loses this week, ending all speculation about its chances to crack the top 4.

Fifth ... well, there is no fifth. We're talking about the top-4, and it looks like there's no room for Baylor this season.

Another one of those weeks last week where my top plays fell flat and my other picks came through with flying colors. Can't explain it, but for some reason, my best picks have come from games that I generally wouldn't play.

As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara

Cream of the Crop (Week: 2-3; Season: 16-29-1)

Saturday

Iowa State at TCU: I really hate taking the public angle on games, but as mentioned, TCU cannot afford to let up one bit this week. Iowa State can move the ball on offense, but there's no chance of keeping up with TCU this week. With that in mind, I'm going to handcuff the over with TCU, just to be safe.

Side: TCU -34
Total: Over 68

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: OSU has been awful this year and looks to be vulnerable heading into this rivalry game. Oklahoma performed much like it has every year for the last decade. Loaded with talent, but always coming up short, the Sooners once again failed to live up to expectations. That said, they are fully equipped to put a hurting on a down and out OSU squad.

Side: Oklahoma -20

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State: I'm not saying OSU is going to revert to early season form, but do you remember how bad the Buckeyes looked earlier in the season when J.T. Barrett was learning the ropes? Well, this isn't Virginia Tech, and last I checked, the Big Ten Championship is not played in Columbus.

Side: Wisconsin -4.5

Best of the Rest (Week 1-3; Season: 21-22-1)

Friday

Arizona vs. Oregon: Arizona is in a tough spot. The Cats threw everything they had at Oregon earlier in the year and it was enough then. But it won't be enough the second time around. I don't see them going down without a fight, but the Ducks are going to get theirs this year, as will Arizona ... just not quite as much.

Total: Over 73.5

Saturday

SMU at Connecticut: I know, what is this game doing on the slate here? Well, I watched much of the SMU-Houston game something occurred to me; SMU's offense is just as bad as its defense. But you still need a decent offense to take advantage of the Mustang's defense, which UConn does not possess.

Total: Under 45.5

Missouri vs. Alabama: Alabama is going to win this game, but the Tide isn't in a spot where it has to impress this week, just win the game, that's enough. That, along with the toll last week's game took on the Tide, will be enough to keep this game close for three quarters.

Side: Missouri +14.5

PASSing Thoughts (Week: 6-1; Season: 40-28)

Saturday

Kansas State at Baylor: Just like TCU, Baylor needs to impress this week. The only problem is Baylor faces a legitimate opponent. There's also the Bryce Petty situation, which according the injury report is nothing to worry about, but concussions are tricky. One bad hit and he's out again. No Petty and scoring margin won't be the only issue this week.

Side: KSU +7.5

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech: I keep thinking that one of these weeks FSU is going to win and look good doing so, but we are running out of weeks and there are no cupcakes left on the schedule. So I guess I'll fade them again. Tech has looked pretty strong over the last month as well.

Side: Georgia Tech +4