Hoops Lab: Who's the Next Scorer of Note?

The last couple weeks I've discussed ways to use "advanced stats" to look for fantasy value moving into next season. So far I've discussed the +/- family of stats, and how statisticians (like those being hired in increasing numbers by NBA teams) can now identify how a player's presence on the court correlates with changes in the scoring margin. But there are more direct ways to gauge what a player brings to the table in limited minutes. Today we'll look at scoring stats, specifically true shooting percentage and points per 36 minutes.

True shooting percentage seeks to determine how often a player's shots leads to points, including field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage and three-pointers into one efficiency stat. Often big men (who shoot very close to the rim) and three-point specialists have very good true shooting percentages. Among the top-20 players in the NBA this season in true shooting percentage are names like Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Kyle Korver and DeAndre Jordan. Let's look at some of the other interesting names from the top-20 in TS% this season who might be poised for improvement next season:

TS%

•Jonas Valanciunas (5th, 62.7%)
•J.J. Redick (7th, 61.4%)
•Ed Davis (9th, 60.4%)
•Amir Johnson (10th, 60.2%)
•DeMarre Carroll (11th, 59.7%)
•Anthony Morrow (13th, 59.2%)
•Timofey Mozgov (14th, 59.2%)
•Tyler Zeller (15th, 59.2%)
•Matt Barnes (19th, 58.6%)
•Harrison Barnes (20th, 58.5%)

As expected, there are a lot of big men and shooters on this list. But while efficiency is a great thing, for fantasy purposes we need volume as well. So let's look at two things: first, the volume these players produce per minute, and second, the chances that their minutes will increase next season. First, the per-36 minute volume of these players of interest:

Per-36 Minute Scoring Volumes

•Jonas Valanciunas: 16.5 points, 6.3/10.9 FG, 3.9/5.0 FT
•J.J. Redick: 18.3 points, 2.9 made 3pt, 6.4/13.6 FG, 2.7/3.0 FT
•Ed Davis: 12.6 points, 5.4/8.9 FG, 1.8/3.5 FT
•Amir Johnson: 12.7 points, 5.5/9.5 FG, 1.5/2.4 FT
•DeMarre Carroll: 13.9 points, 2.0 made 3pt, 4.9/10.3 FG, 2.1/2.9 FT
•Anthony Morrow: 15.4 points, 2.6 made 3pt, 5.6/12.2 FG, 1.6/1.8 FT
•Timofey Mozgov: 15.1 points, 6.1/10.2 FG, 2.9/4.1 FT
•Tyler Zeller: 16.9 points, 6.8/12.5 FG, 3.3/4.0 FT
•Matt Barnes: 12.1 points, 2.1 made 3pt, 4.4/9.6 FG, 1.2/1.6 FT
•Harrison Barnes: 13.1 points, 1.4 made 3pt, 5.0/10.2 FG, 1.7/2.3 FT

On this list I highlighted the five who averaged more than 15 points per 36, which would make them plus scorers if they got more minutes. I also highlighted Carroll's and Barnes' treys since they were at least two made treys per 36. So now, of the list of five-plus scorers, who seems poised to get more minutes toward that 36-minute standard next season?

Jonas Valanciunas played 26.2 minutes per game this season, down from 28.2 minutes per game last season. But he's only 22, in his third season, and he has a firm grasp on the starting center position for the Raptors. I'd say he's a decent bet for more minutes next year.

J.J. Redick is a veteran, but he's playing a career-high 31 minutes per game and having the best season of his career. In March, with Jamal Crawford injured, he has averaged 21.2 points and 3.1 treys in 37.7 minutes per game. It is possible the Clippers could take notice of this and give him a bigger role next season.

Anthony Morrow is also a veteran, but he only plays 23.7 minutes per game (he maxed out at 32 minutes per game in his third season). Interestingly, Morrow was also covered in the last article as he had a very good RAPM score in the study I cited. It is possible that the Thunder could note that his shooting meshes very well with Russell Westbrook in the backcourt and give him a larger role next season. But he doesn't have the positive momentum for extra minutes that the previous two have.

Despite being 28, Timofey Mozgov is still a young player in the NBA whose role has steadily expanded the last few years. He played about half a season as a part-time reserve every year from 2011-13. In 2014, he played all 82 games at a then career-high 21.6 minutes per game, and this season he has played in 69 games at a current career-high of 25.7 minutes per game. The Cavaliers traded for him to be the starting center, and his only competition is the veteran Anderson Varejao, who has quite a history of injury/durability issues. Following the trend, I expect Mozgov to play more minutes next season and perhaps get closer to 30 minutes per game.

Finally, Tyler Zeller is another young player trying to establish himself on a new team. Zeller came to Boston in the offseason after spending his first two years as a backup in Cleveland. He is averaging 21.1 mpg, down from his rookie season (26.4 mpg) but up from last season. He has gone through stretches as a starter for the Celtics (23.4 mpg, 10.9 points, 6.2 rebounds in 42 starts this season) but has also spent quite a bit of time as a reserve. It seems that when he has started it has been by default, as the Celtics don't have any other NBA starting-caliber centers on the roster. Zeller could end up starting some next season, but it seems that his level is more of a back-up center, so I'm not confident that he will be getting 30-plus minutes a game anytime soon.

Conclusion: So, from this excersice, I'd say that Valanciunas, Redic and Mozgov look like the most promising prospects on the list to potentially step up to become an impact/efficient scorer next season.

Around the League

• Durant removed from basketball activities:Kevin Durant has been removed from basketball activities and is out indefinitely. Words like "removed" and "out indefinitely" are extremely scary this time of the year, and foot injuries have proven to be the bane of many an NBA player through the years, as the feet have to carry such a heavy load for these enormous men. It is increasingly likely that Durant may be out through the fantasy playoffs, and as crazy as it sounds if you have him and are still alive in your playoffs you may have to at least consider dropping him.

• George to return within week ... or not:Paul George was rumored to be on the verge of a return within the week, perhaps as soon as last Saturday. However, George didn't play Saturday, and Pacers coach Frank Vogel said he still doesn't have a timetable to return. With the haziness of his return date mixed with the questions about what his role/level will be upon his return, it is extremely risky to continue to stash him at this point.

• Klay is actually coming back:Klay Thompson is expected to return soon from his sprained right ankle, perhaps as soon as Monday. He has missed a couple games, but is a bit ahead of the original prognosis that he'd miss seven to 10 days. The results of his Sunday test will determine whether he is able to play Monday.

• Lowry's back:Kyle Lowry dressed but didn't play Friday and also sat out Sunday due to a back injury. He has missed a handful of games this month due to different issues, but with the Raptors fighting for playoff position you'd expect him to be on the court as soon as his body will let him.

• Gibson is back, so what about Mirotic?Nikola Mirotic was on an absolute tear the last few weeks after Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson went out with injury. He had scored at least 23 points in six of the previous 11 games, had six games with nine or more rebounds over the same stretch and had played himself into a front line fantasy starter on a nightly basis. Then, on Friday, Gibson returned. He only played 11 minutes, and Mirotic still exploded to 29 points (11-for-21 FG, 4-for-5 FT), 11 boards, four blocks, three treys and an assist in 32 minutes. However, a day later Mirotic saw his minutes drop to 24 (while Gibson played 19) for an eight-point, five-rebound performance that was his lowest scoring output since February. Mirotic has been so outstanding that I would probably hold onto him for another game or two just in case, but if the trend from Saturday continues it could mean the end of Mirotic's magic run.

• Jones' lung:Terrence Jones has a collapsed lung that will keep him out at least the next few games. Jones has been outstanding this season when he could get on the court, but injuries have robbed him of most of the season and seems likely to keep him out through the majority of the fantasy playoffs.

• Payton making late ROY surge: I saw a headline on ESPN this week that said that Elfrid Payton should be the Rookie of the Year this year. I don't know if Payton saw that same headline, but he is certainly playing like he's trying to make his case. Payton has averaged 15.9 points, 8.3 assists, 6.6 boards and 1.9 steals the last two weeks with his only weakness, as always, his free-throw percentage (53.8% FT in last two weeks). He's gotten even hotter in the last week, though, and entered Sunday with back-to-back triple-doubles in which he had averaged 18.5 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and 3.0 steals while even knocking down all four of his free throws.

New Additions

Randy Foye (41 percent owned): Foye was on this list last week as well, but in the meantime he has seemingly solidified his hold on the starting job and has been the most consistent Nuggets guard with Ty Lawson and Jameer Nelson in-and-out of the lineup (Note: Foye did sit out Sunday himself with an illness). The last two weeks Foye is averaging 16.1 points, 4.3 assists, 3.1 treys, 2.6 boards and 1.0 steals while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 92.9 percent from the line.

Brandan Wright (37 percent owned): Wright has taken advantage of the injury to Alex Len to explode into relevance over the last week. He's been extremely efficient on low volume all season, but in the last week he has continued to shoot 72 percent from the field while playing 35 minutes per game. Over that stretch he averaged 14 points, 9.3 boards, 3.0 blocks and 0.7 steals while also shooting 85.7 percent from the free-throw line. Len (ankle) returned Saturday and played 18 minutes, but still wasn't very explosive. Wright could still maintain some short-term value if he can keep playing 25-plus minutes while Len is hobbling.

Steven Adams (32 percent owned): While Enes Kanter was the obvious benificiary when Serge Ibaka got hurt, Adams also stepped up with some solid games (14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds March 15-16). Then, Kanter and Nick Collison also got hurt and Adams stepped up into impact player range with averages of 13 points, 14.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals March 18 and 20. Kanter returned Sunday, but Adams is in a groove, and the Thunder frontcourt is so thin that he should continue to get plenty of minutes.

Ish Smith (13 percent owned): On Wednesday I did an interview on the SXM Drive with Kyle Elfrink and Ray Flowers (@baseball guys on Twitter). The highlight of the interview was listening to Kyle try to repeatedly say "Ish Smith" without accidentally cussing. That said, Smith's play lately has been worthy of a four-letter exclamation if you got him on the cheap. Over the last week he is averaging 15.3 points (48.8% FG), 7.0 assists, 2.3 boards, 2.0 steals, 0.7 treys and even 0.7 blocked shots.

Chase Budinger (2 percent owned) and Justin Hamilton (12 percent owned): Budinger is a risky pick-up because there is not much clarity in the Timberwolves frontcourt, but over the last few games he has risen above the fray of injuries and inconsistent play to make his mark. Budinger has four consecutive double-digit scoring efforts, and his minutes played over those four games have increased from 21:31 to 26:25 to 36:20 up to 43:23 in his last outing, an overtime victory over the Knicks. Budinger is a stretch 4 who can knock down the trey from a big man slot, and if he gets minutes might contribute slightly in the peripheral categories (14.3 points, 5.0 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.0 treys over the last week). Hamilton is also worth paying attention to because he was putting up good numbers earlier in the week with the starting bigs out (14 points, 7.3 boards, 1.8 blocks in his last four games), but he fell sick and had to miss two games that broke his momentum and may have allowed Nikola Pekovic and/or Kevin Garnett to get healthy enough to return.

Keeping up with the Professor

If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on CLNS Radio about once a month.