This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
RISING
David Johnson, RB, ARZ
Johnson is obviously an impressive player and his entry on the Rising list might appear lazy, but Johnson projects to not merely be "good" in 2016 -- he more likely projects to be a top-three fantasy back. Chris Johnson is not in the long-term picture -- his signing was precipitated by preseason injuries to both David Johnson and Andre Ellington -- and Ellington is too injury prone to pose a threat to the younger Johnson's workhorse status when the elder Johnson moves on. At 5-foot-11, 224, with elite workout numbers and, somehow, even better rookie-year NFL production, Johnson is one of the NFL runners most uniquely suited to providing a three-down skillset and top-tier fantasy upside. He has 979 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage on just 114 carries and 33 catches, yet it's quite easy to imagine him earning twice that workload in 2016.
Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS
Cousins' 2015 production ranks among the best at his position, and his play has been convincing in the second half of the year, especially. After throwing eight interceptions in his first six games, Cousins has 20 touchdowns against three interceptions since. Not only has he thrown for 3,990 yards (7.6 YPA) and 26 touchdowns, he's added five touchdowns on the ground. That it's all being done with only modest surrounding talent makes it appear like Cousins could produce at an even better level if the Washington offense as a whole gets more explosive.
RISING
David Johnson, RB, ARZ
Johnson is obviously an impressive player and his entry on the Rising list might appear lazy, but Johnson projects to not merely be "good" in 2016 -- he more likely projects to be a top-three fantasy back. Chris Johnson is not in the long-term picture -- his signing was precipitated by preseason injuries to both David Johnson and Andre Ellington -- and Ellington is too injury prone to pose a threat to the younger Johnson's workhorse status when the elder Johnson moves on. At 5-foot-11, 224, with elite workout numbers and, somehow, even better rookie-year NFL production, Johnson is one of the NFL runners most uniquely suited to providing a three-down skillset and top-tier fantasy upside. He has 979 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage on just 114 carries and 33 catches, yet it's quite easy to imagine him earning twice that workload in 2016.
Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS
Cousins' 2015 production ranks among the best at his position, and his play has been convincing in the second half of the year, especially. After throwing eight interceptions in his first six games, Cousins has 20 touchdowns against three interceptions since. Not only has he thrown for 3,990 yards (7.6 YPA) and 26 touchdowns, he's added five touchdowns on the ground. That it's all being done with only modest surrounding talent makes it appear like Cousins could produce at an even better level if the Washington offense as a whole gets more explosive.
Brandin Cooks, WR, NO
After a disappointing start to the season, Cooks caught fire in the second half, renewing faith in the idea that he can serve as the lead receiver in New Orleans. After failing to exceed 100 yards or score in all but one of his first seven games, Cooks has gone off for 672 yards and eight touchdowns in his last eight games. He won't turn 23 until Sept. 25, but Cooks has 1,116 yards and nine touchdowns on 123 targets this year.
Jeremy Langford, RB, CHI
It appears more and more as if Chicago won't make much of or any attempt to re-sign impending free-agent Matt Forte, leaving Langford as the favorite to serve as a lead runner and workhorse in 2016. He's nearly done as much already in the last three weeks, receiving 41 carries over that span compared to Forte's 29. With the fastest 40-yard dash among running backs at the 2015 Combine at 4.42 and the ability to contribute as a receiver, Langford has the profile of a major fantasy asset when you factor in Chicago's demonstrated commitment of late.
FALLING
Justin Forsett, RB, BAL
Javorius Allen hasn't looked like a future star, but the rookie fourth-round pick has provided a cheap, versatile anchor in a down year overrun with injuries. Although Forsett averaged 0.2 more yards per carry than Allen, the rookie proved much better as a pass-catching option, totaling 39 catches for 321 yards and two touchdowns (8.2 YPC) versus Forsett's total of 31 receptions for 153 yards (4.9 YPC). At 30 years old, Forsett risks losing explosiveness each offseason at this point in his career, so the prospects of him starting over Allen in 2016 don't appear good.
Derek Carr, QB, OAK
Carr has generally had a fine second season as Oakland's starting quarterback, and his entry on the falling list is mostly just to express some caution where there might otherwise only be reason for optimism at the moment. With 3,793 yards and 31 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, Carr's numbers are quite good, and at 24 it's tempting to presume steady improvement from season to season. He also has a solid surrounding cast with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at receiver. Still, week-to-week ups and downs combine with a lack of downfield explosiveness within Carr's otherwise fine season, and they could imply ups and downs beyond this year, too. Carr's YPA of 7.0 is rather low at a completion percentage of 60.9 -- you would ideally get a better yardage return at a completion percentage below 65.0. He's failed to average 6.0 YPA in a game in a month, and he logged YPAs at 7.0 or lower in five of the 10 games before that point.
