MLB Prop Bets: Top Wagers for 2016

It's one of our most hallowed traditions. Each season, right before Opening Day, Rotowire co-founder Peter Schoenke looks at the preseason over/under win total bets for each major league team and tries to find value in Vegas' (or the public's) misjudgment of a particular team or trend.

However, the betting universe is vast and getting vaster, and there are more options available these days than the standard "my favorite team to win the World Series" wager or even Peter's over/under win totals. Prop bets, on all kinds of season-long outcomes, are starting to become more prevalent, and with them comes more opportunities to look for an edge.

WORLD SERIES BETS

Shockingly, from a historical perspective, the team with the best odds of taking home the 2016 crown right now is the Chicago Cubs at +600, which no one should be touching with a 10-foot pole, really. Sure, they're coming off a 97-win season and have gobs of exciting young talent, but 1908 and all. Plus, those 97 wins only got them third place in the dangerous NL Central and a wild card spot last year. Any slip, whether through regression, injury or sophomore slumps, could put them on the outside looking in come October.

The only two other teams listed in triple digits are the New York Mets (+800) and the San Francisco Giants (+900). The Mets seem like a solid play, if you're so inclined, but it's not a bet I would make. The NL East is a division of haves (Mets and Nationals) and have nots (everybody else), which gives the the two big dogs better odds at elevated win totals and playoff spots, even before you factor in the Mets having the best homegrown rotation ever. The Giants, however, I'm less thrilled by. Those odds seem influenced by their recent track record of winning it all every other year, a pattern which is highly unlikely to hold.

The next tier of teams seems to be where the value lies. The Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000) took a tumble due to the spate of recent bad news they got in their rotation, but this is still the Dodgers. The Kansas City Royals (you remember them, last year's champs?) top the AL listings along with the Toronto Blue Jays at +1200, while the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals all check in at +1400. Of those, the Nats stand out as the best bet. Despite last season's disappointment, they still have Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, with solid depth behind them, and have averaged over 90 wins for the last four seasons. Frankly, I consider them about equal to the Mets, so getting them at nearly twice the odds seems like a great price.

One other team jumps out at me from the next tier of odds, and that's the Texas Rangers at +2200. Like the NL East, the AL West increasingly looks like two great teams (the Rangers and Astros) feasting on three struggling outfits, though the dregs of the AL West aren't in full-on rebuild mode like the Phillies and Braves. The Rangers won the division last year and get Yu Darvish back at some point in 2016 to bolster their one weakness, rotation depth. Those are great odds for a team that seems very likely to make the postseason for the fifth time in the last seven seasons.

If you're looking for something closer to a true long shot, the Baltimore Orioles at +4500 are intriguing given all the power they've brought in this offseason. Their rotation is still suspect, but a breakout performance from Kevin Gausman could solve some of those concerns.

Wagers Placed: $25 on the Nationals at +1400 (would cash $375), and $25 on the Rangers at +2200 (would cash $575). If you don't like the idea of hedging with two World Series winners, their odds of winning pennants are Nationals +650 and Rangers +900 instead.

SEASON LEADER PROPS

Now things get interesting. Many cites offer props not only on which players will lead the league in certain statistics, as well as over/unders on the league-leading total in specific categories. However, they're taking an extra cut, starting both sides of the line at -115 instead of -110, which makes most of these bets tougher to justify.

On the hitting side, the first number that jumps out as worth playing is doubles, which has a line of 50.5 for the league leader. Last year, Michael Brantley led the majors with 45 doubles, but that's the lowest league-leading total in a full season since 1990. The league-leaders for the three previous seasons all topped 51, and in fact, since the strike years there have been only three instances where the league leader hit fewer than 50. Of course, all three of them are of recent vintage (2015, 2011 and 2010), but history suggests that bettering 50 won't be a problem for whoever takes the crown.

The hits leader presents a more interesting dilemma. The line is 205.5, and last year's leader, Dee Gordon, managed 205 hits. In 2013, the league leaders (Matt Carpenter and Adrian Beltre) tied at 199. Other than that, though, MLB league leaders have consistently rung up hit totals in the mid-210s or better. The odds have already moved to reflect this, as the over is already up to -125 (and the under at -105) since the prop was posted. If the under slips into the positive zone, it becomes worth serious consideration despite that history, though. It's entirely plausible that the rise in strikeouts game-wide is causing a drag on hit totals, making it more difficult for any player to break 200.

The home run line is 44.5, and it's hard to see much value on either side of that. The last five big league HR leaders hit 47, 40, 53, 44 and 43 bombs, and while it's easy to imagine any number of players threatening 45, recent history suggests it's no sure thing any one of them will make it. RBI at 126.5 is also a pass based on recent history, though as with hits, the over seems to be getting more love and the odds have shifted to -125/-105. If 2016's offensive environment ends up looking more like 2014 than 2015, the unders on these bets are going to be gold.

The line on runs scored is 118.5, and like doubles this seems almost too good to be true based on recent history. Josh Donaldson's 122 from 2015 is on the low end of recent MLB leaders, and at that line the under would only have cashed in 2014 and 2010 in the post-strike era.

There's also a line on hitting for the cycle, at 3.5. The last five years have seen four, one, three, four and two, and you have to go back to 2009 to find a season which was crawling with cycles (eight of them!). Given how few of them happen, though, there too much volatility and randomness to make either side worth a bet.

The final two hitting categories are triples, with a line of 13.5, and steals at 63.5. League-leaders in triples are almost always somewhere in the low double digits, so that one isn't worth a wager. The steals line seems much too high, however. Dee Gordon's 58 lead the majors in 2015, and his 64 in 2014 was the only time in the last five years the over would have paid on that line. However, the odds are already moving to account for it, with the under sitting at -125. You might have to act fast on this one if you want to get a decent return.

Wagers Placed: $50 on the over on doubles (would cash $93.48), $50 on the over on runs scored (would cash $93.48), $50 on the under on stolen bases (would cash $90).

On the pitching side, the line for 2016 no-hitters was set at 4.5 and has already seen a rush of money on the over, pushing the odds to -135/+105. It's no wonder, given that 12 of them were racked up over the last two seasons. The under as a contrarian play is tempting given the positive odds, but even at +105 the value isn't quite there. However, the prop on whether anyone will throw a perfect game has great value. Yes is currently sitting at +180 (No is riding at -225), and while there hasn't been a perfecto since 2012, given all the no-hitters being tossed and the number of recent near misses, those odds seem too good to pass up.

Weirdly, complete games has also seen a large amount of money hitting the over with a line of 5.0. The possibility of a push already makes me leery, but when you consider that over the last four seasons the league leader has managed four, six, five and six CGs, I don't see the overwhelming logic towards betting the over. Modern MLB managers simply don't ride their horses the way they used to. At +115, the under is starting to get tempting, though.

Wins and losses have also seen action on the over. Losses now sit at -125/-105 with a line of 17.0. That one's a bit more understandable, as the league leader has lost either 17 or 18 games in each of the last five seasons, so it might seem like a "safe" bet, but as with CGs the over doesn't seem particularly compelling. Wins are at -120/-110 with a line of 21, another bet that might seem protected by the push given that Jake Arrieta's 22 wins in 2015 was the first time a league leader didn't have exactly 21 since 2009, when four players tied at 19. Again, better odds on the under might make sense as a contrarian play, but as they currently sit, neither side seems great value.

Two more categories round out the pitching side. The line on saves is 49.5, which seems right on the money. In the seven seasons since Francisco Rodriguez popped for 62, the league leader has recorded between 48 and 51 saves. Recent MLB history says this one's a pure coin flip. In strikeouts, the line was set at 276.5, and surprisingly the under has attracted more action. Clayton Kershaw's 301 K's last year was the first time someone broke 300 since Randy Johnson in 2002, but a closer look shows strong upward movement overall. From 2005 through 2012, only two league leaders even broke 250 strikeouts. In 2013, though, Yu Darvish lead with 277, and David Price took the crown with 271 in 2014. At -105, the over looks enticing.

Wagers Placed: $50 on Yes to a perfect game (would cash $140), and $25 on the over on strikeouts (would cash $48.81).

There are two more season leader props listed, team wins and losses. The line on team wins sits at 98.5, which makes the over a potential value bet. Over the last five years, the highest win total in MLB has been 100, 98, 97, 98 and 102. That might make the line seem a bit high, but as teams begin embracing the full-on rebuild (as the Phillies and Braves are doing and the Astros have done successfully), it creates an opening for dominant teams in a single division to rack up more wins due to the unbalanced schedule. Similarly, the line on losses is at 99.5, and while no team has broken the century mark in the last two years, four different teams (the Astros three straight seasons, plus the Marlins and Cubs) hit triple digits between 2011 and 2013. If a team like the Reds, which already has three tough divisional opponents, completely sweeps the decks of talent, they could have a hard time winning 52 games, much less 62. The line has also shifted to +100 on the over, making it that much more enticing.

Wagers Placed: $25 on the over on season wins (would cash $46.74), $50 on the over on team losses (would cash $100).

SEASON AWARD PROPS

Finally, you can bet on individual players to take home each league's MVP and Cy Young awards, as well as the MLB home run champ, if you're so inclined.

Mike Trout (+150) is understandably the big favorite to win the AL MVP. Only four other players are below +1600: last year's winner Josh Donaldson (+450), Manny Machado (+550), Miguel Cabrera (+800) and Mookie Betts (+900). If you're betting the O's to win the World Series or AL pennant, betting on Machado to win MVP seems like a good pairing given the respective odds.

Bryce Harper (+200) leads the MVP pack in the NL, while Paul Goldschmidt (+500), Andrew McCutchen (+500), Giancarlo Stanton (+650) and Kris Bryant (+900) round out the top five, with Buster Posey (+1200) and Anthony Rizzo (+1200) also getting shorter odds than the pack. It's hard to bet against Harper here, if you're going to bet at all.

The AL Cy Young race sees six pitchers below +1000: Chris Sale (+250), David Price (+300), Corey Kluber (+350), Felix Hernandez (+600), Dallas Keuchel (+600) and Carlos Carrasco (+800). You can also bet Rick Porcello at +20,000. The name that stands out in the middle, though, is Cole Hamels at +2000.

In the NL, it's Clayton Kershaw and everyone else. Kershaw gets a tiny +175, Jake Arrieta gets +700, and no one else is below +1000. That makes players like Max Scherzer (+1000) and Matt Harvey (+1200) very interesting.

The lowest odds on the home run champ sit on Stanton at +700, and it's easy to see why given his track record when healthy and the fact that the fences at Marlins Park are being lowered and brought in. Trout (+1000), Chris Davis (+1200), Harper (+1200) and Bryant (+1400) round out the top five, while the +2000 band sees other possibilities in Jose Bautista, Miguel Sano and Nolan Arenado.

Wagers Placed: $25 on Harper as NL MVP (would cash $75), $25 on Hamels as AL Cy Young (would cash $525), and $25 on Harper as home run champ (would cash $325)