This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
In February I participated in a Rotoworld-hosted mock dynasty league draft with some industry experts. Mocks like this are always fun, but I was particularly eager to vet my dynasty league rankings in an actual draft. While I love the team I put together, I realized that dynasty league rankings don't really matter.
How can that be? After all, this article is specifically dedicated to my top-250 dynasty league rankings. Well, they matter in a general sense, for someone just looking to ballpark a player's value, but I quickly started to ignore what my rankings were telling me to do, and instead followed a path that my first several picks led me on.
To understand what I mean, let's first take a look at my roster, with the overall pick in parenthesis:
C: Blake Swihart (95)
C: Welington Castillo (218)
1B: A.J. Reed (119)
2B: Yoan Moncada (47)
3B: Mike Moustakas (98)
SS: Addison Russell (50)
CI: Josh Bell (266)
MI: Tim Anderson (146)
OF: Bryce Harper (2)
OF: Byron Buxton (26)
OF: Michael Conforto (71)
OF: Jason Heyward (74)
OF: Kevin Pillar (170)
UTIL: Manuel Margot (242)
P: Jose Fernandez (23)
P: Steven Matz (122)
P: Alex Reyes (143)
P: Patrick Corbin (167)
P: Jose Berrios (191)
P: Joe Ross (194)
P: Blake Snell (215)
P: Vincent Velasquez (239)
P: Jorge Lopez (290)
Bench:
Franklin Barreto (263)
Andrew Benintendi (287)
AGE
Welington Castillo, 28, is the oldest player on the roster, and the only player over the
In February I participated in a Rotoworld-hosted mock dynasty league draft with some industry experts. Mocks like this are always fun, but I was particularly eager to vet my dynasty league rankings in an actual draft. While I love the team I put together, I realized that dynasty league rankings don't really matter.
How can that be? After all, this article is specifically dedicated to my top-250 dynasty league rankings. Well, they matter in a general sense, for someone just looking to ballpark a player's value, but I quickly started to ignore what my rankings were telling me to do, and instead followed a path that my first several picks led me on.
To understand what I mean, let's first take a look at my roster, with the overall pick in parenthesis:
C: Blake Swihart (95)
C: Welington Castillo (218)
1B: A.J. Reed (119)
2B: Yoan Moncada (47)
3B: Mike Moustakas (98)
SS: Addison Russell (50)
CI: Josh Bell (266)
MI: Tim Anderson (146)
OF: Bryce Harper (2)
OF: Byron Buxton (26)
OF: Michael Conforto (71)
OF: Jason Heyward (74)
OF: Kevin Pillar (170)
UTIL: Manuel Margot (242)
P: Jose Fernandez (23)
P: Steven Matz (122)
P: Alex Reyes (143)
P: Patrick Corbin (167)
P: Jose Berrios (191)
P: Joe Ross (194)
P: Blake Snell (215)
P: Vincent Velasquez (239)
P: Jorge Lopez (290)
Bench:
Franklin Barreto (263)
Andrew Benintendi (287)
AGE
Welington Castillo, 28, is the oldest player on the roster, and the only player over the age of 27. This became my strategy as soon as I took Byron Buxton in the third round. I like Buxton this season, but that pales in comparison to how much I love him long term. Expecting him to return enough value as my third selection for me to compete in 2016 seemed like a stretch. The pick made all the sense in the world, and I saw a case for taking him in the second round, so I had no problem with the value, but at that point my strategy needed to adapt on the fly, knowing that competing in 2016 was not a goal.
With high-upside young hitters like Bryce Harper, Buxton and Yoan Moncada as my building blocks, I needed to target a few big leaguers who were likely pre-peak, or at worst entered their peak last season, and were 27 or under, so I could bank on at least several more years of steady production in their primes. While targeting younger players and prospects is obviously the key to a long-term strategy in dynasty leagues, guys like Jason Heyward, Mike Moustakas and Kevin Pillar are important established players who will help minimize the risk on the roster.
The goal is to have as many players in or near their prime at the same time from 2017 to 2020. All of the prospects I drafted should debut in the big leagues by 2017 at the latest, so that allows for at least three years where they will be up and producing at the same time that the relative veterans on the roster are theoretically in their peak years.
HITTERS OVER PITCHERS
If I were trying to put together a roster to win in 2016, the price on all the pitchers I drafted, save Alex Reyes, would have still made sense, but there's no way I would have skewed that young across the board. Players like Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright and John Lackey still have a place on contending rosters in dynasty leagues, and I would have liked to supplement my young arms with some steady veterans who annually top 200 innings.
Additionally, I didn't draft a single relief pitcher, as closer jobs turn over so steadily, that at best there's a 50/50 chance that a closer in 2016 will still be a closer in 2018. Punting saves makes sense in certain scenarios in single-season leagues, and it is an absolute requirement for anyone taking a long-term approach in a draft from scratch dynasty league. Even if I struggled to draft closers in the reserve drafts in 2017 and 2018, there are always closers for sale in dynasty leagues, and often at a discount. As soon as an owner decides they are not contending, they immediately try to move their closers. Additionally, contenders are even willing to move closers if it's an area of strength, because they are the least reliable long-term commodities in the game.
While I would have preferred to not have so many young, unproven arms on the staff, it was an unavoidable result of loading up on young hitters, as I couldn't justify taking too many high-end pitchers. They would be sitting on my roster in a meaningless 2016 season, during which time they could get hurt and I'd wind up getting nothing from them in 2017. Instead I took a handful of arms I really like, that don't have quite the track record to generate an exorbitant price tag this year.
EMBRACING AN IDENTITY
I entered this mock draft with a flexible approach. If the chips had fallen a different way, and I had ended up with three or four players currently right in the middle of their MLB primes with my first several picks, I would have had no problem bringing in guys like Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Felix Hernandez, etc. to try to win the league in 2016 and 2017. However, things did not work out that way, and as soon as I took Buxton and Moncada back-to-back with my third and fourth round picks, post-peak players were useless to me. Similarly, if I had started with a win-now core, players like Buxton, Moncada and Addison Russell would have been terrible picks, as the price tag would far surpass what they could be expected to produce this year and next.
The worst place one can be in a start from scratch dynasty draft is in the middle, building around both win-now players in their 30s and players who are at least a year or two away from peaking. And this brings us back to why dynasty rankings can prove to be somewhat useless in many instances. As soon as I took Buxton, that eliminated roughly half the player pool from my consideration. After the draft, someone could have offered me Albert Pujols for Josh Bell, and I would have turned it down.
With this in mind, it is important to look at these dynasty rankings as a very abstract snapshot of where players are at in terms of long-term value. A player could be ranked 20, 50 or even 100 spots higher than another player, but it still might not make sense for a certain dynasty league team to make that "upgrade" if it does not fit into what that roster's blueprint is for winning.
These rankings are for true dynasty leagues where a player can be kept forever with no contracts and no keeper limits. Feel free to ask league-specific questions in the comments section.
