This article is part of our The Z Files series.
A dozen sliders may refer to a meal at your favorite burger joint or a Sergio Romo inning. In this case though, it's 12 hitters sliding down the draft board per our early Top 350. Perhaps we need to reconsider our rankings, or perhaps this presents an early buying opportunity for those inclined to participate in drafts before opening their holiday presents.
The National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Draft Champions contest has begun in earnest as well as mocks for the various industry magazines. Based on those results, here are 12 hitters almost always drafted after our rankings.
A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: What's a Z Files without a Pollock reference? My generosity brings Pollock's average down, but even without my early second round ranking, the Diamondbacks fly chaser is being drafted after the average of the rest of the panel. There must be a residual injury concern, which is understandable. Where I disagree with the masses is on the baseline. I see a year and a half of solid, sustainable skills while others expect some regression. I've been playing chicken with Pollock, passing on him in the second round in hopes he falls to me in the third. Sure, I could snag him in the second, and later in the drafting season I likely will. But in early drafts, I like playing chicken with the field in hopes of snagging a potential Top 10 overall player 25 picks later.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets
A dozen sliders may refer to a meal at your favorite burger joint or a Sergio Romo inning. In this case though, it's 12 hitters sliding down the draft board per our early Top 350. Perhaps we need to reconsider our rankings, or perhaps this presents an early buying opportunity for those inclined to participate in drafts before opening their holiday presents.
The National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Draft Champions contest has begun in earnest as well as mocks for the various industry magazines. Based on those results, here are 12 hitters almost always drafted after our rankings.
A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: What's a Z Files without a Pollock reference? My generosity brings Pollock's average down, but even without my early second round ranking, the Diamondbacks fly chaser is being drafted after the average of the rest of the panel. There must be a residual injury concern, which is understandable. Where I disagree with the masses is on the baseline. I see a year and a half of solid, sustainable skills while others expect some regression. I've been playing chicken with Pollock, passing on him in the second round in hopes he falls to me in the third. Sure, I could snag him in the second, and later in the drafting season I likely will. But in early drafts, I like playing chicken with the field in hopes of snagging a potential Top 10 overall player 25 picks later.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets: Cespedes is a second round talent pushed down a round or two, sometimes three, as sexier middle infielders and pitchers go in his stead. Dropping one round is understandable, but occasionally, once a player begins to slide, he continues as the room is reacting to the earlier picks and joining in on the run at other positions. The clever drafter recognizes this and grabs Cespedes at a discount, securely knowing middle infield is crazy deep so there will be plenty of options later.
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Is there still residual ill will from the suspension? Health concerns? Worries that the steals will disappear? Whatever the reason, Braun is dropping from third round status to fourth and fifth round territory. Truth be told, I'm guilty too. I know what the numbers say: a healthy Braun is still a very productive Braun, and if there were just one concern, I'd likely have a share or two. But with so many question marks, all it takes is for one to manifest. The other reason for me shying away is roster construction. When Braun is a viable choice, I'm usually looking at starting pitchers. As alluded to with Cespedes, I'll take an outfielder in lieu of an infielder, but not instead of a pitcher. There just isn't the same ability to compensate with later arms.
J.D. Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers: If Martinez had played even 140 games in 2014 and 2016, the trust level would be greater. But since his 158-game campaign in 2015 is sandwiched by only 123 the previous season and 120 last year, there's justifiable concern. This one's easy. If he plays a full season, Martinez is a late second, early third round producer. If you're not swayed by the injury concerns (and keep in mind that in 2014 he was brought up 17 games into the season), draft him in the fourth and sleep like a baby.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Detroit Tigers: The panel ranks Kinsler in the third round, while he's being drafted in the fifth and later. There are several things in play here, most notably Kinsler's position. As mentioned, middle infield is stacked. Eleven or 12 teams already have a second baseman or shortstop at that point. while others recognize the depth and are waiting. Many also expect a fall back from 2016's 28 homers. The overlooked aspect of Kinsler's numbers is run production. Sitting atop the Tigers lineup, he's always a threat for 100 runs and 80 RBI. Even is his power drops, we're still looking at a floor of 30 combined homers and steals with a solid average. Others are looking for upside, the panel rewards reliability.
Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Apparently hitting only 25 homers in a year where power was a record high is a bad thing. Abreu still hit .293 with 100 RBI, though to be fair, the lineup surrounding Abreu looks to be severe downgraded, so some of the concern is warranted. I'm just not sure it's enough to knock a early fourth rounder down a couple rounds, especially since the panel baked the power drop and lineup woes into our ranking.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Colleague Tim Heaney makes the case for Cutch to rebound, and I agree. So much so in fact that I've already drafted McCutchen, albeit in the eighth round. Still, no one else was willing to take the chance. I also paid $37 for him in the XFL, a pseudo-industry keeper league where there's heavy inflation. Because of how I want to build my squad, I won't be looking at the Bucs veteran in the first five rounds, but after that I'm reading the room and he's in play.
Todd Frazier, 3B, Chicago White Sox: The reason this fourth round-ranked player is dropping a couple rounds is his declining batting average, as he hit a career-worst .225 in 2016 despite knocking 40 homers for the first time. The panel already penalized Frazier though, as he was a consensus third rounder heading into the 2016 campaign. If you're concerned he won't bounce back to the .250 range, the slide is justified. Just beware, third base thins out faster than any other position. The top end is loaded, no doubt, but the back end is worse than either middle infield spot.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B, Boston Red Sox: We have Ramirez ranked in the fourth, whereas the masses are waiting until at least the sixth round. Maybe it's due to his inconsistency, but Ramirez isn't getting the love commensurate with a hitter coming off a 30 HR, 111 RBI campaign who also chipped in nine bags. I agree with waiting at least one round, but come the fifth (assuming I didn't start my squad with Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo or Miguel Cabrera), Ramirez is on my radar. I'll usually take the chance he falls to the sixth.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: This is all about the horror if CarGo is traded out of Coors Field. As an aside, I'm not as concerned if teammate Charlie Blackmon is dealt away, but on Gonzalez I agree – take him out of the thin air and he's just another power hitter that doesn't hit enough fly balls. In early drafts, if he falls to the eighth, he is well worth the risk he continues to drive to Denver 81 times a year.
Matt Kemp, OF, San Diego Padres: There's a saying: "perception is reality". I've always felt reality is reality while perception is for those unwilling or too lazy to accept reality. Kemp is penalized by his home venue and lineup, be it the Padres and Petco Park or the Braves and Turner Field. Granted, we don't know how SunTrust Park will play, but even if it's like Turner Field, Kemp's baseline is still 25 HR with 175 runs plus RBI. The panel has him in the sixth, so even we're skeptical. Still, you could do worse in the seventh than Kemp.
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles: For years, Jones was a first rounder despite sketchy plate skills. But since he always seemed to overcome that, he was forgiven. The other factor was volume, as Jones rarely missed a game so his counting stats benefited from so many trips to the dish, not to mention a great hitting park and strong lineup around him. Recently, Jones has begun to miss some games, but more importantly, his batting average is sliding as his BABIP is dipping. The willingness to overlook his lack of patience is waning, dropping Jones out of the Top 100 in most drafts. This is far too severe for a sixth round player.
There's your dirty dozen, 12 hitters sliding down the ranks. Two trends stand out. The majority are first basemen and outfielders, ranked in the third to fifth round but drafted two or three rounds later. As has been discussed, the primary reason first baseman and outfielders populate the list is the emergence of middle infielders and the need to follow the herd and draft pitching before it dries up. Plus, the perception is those respective position pools are deep enough to wait.
With respect to the rounds, obviously, you can't draft more than two or three of these hitters at the available discount. On the other hand, it makes sense to be willing to take the plunge in the sixth to eighth round. These names are no longer sexy, having been usurped by the shiny new toys. It's cliché, but it's true. Championships aren't won early. Grabbing some nice profit in this portion of the draft can get you a long way towards the victory circle.
