Mound Musings: Advanced Metrics and 20/20 Eyesight

I get asked about this or that advanced metric all the time, so I thought it might be a good idea to walk through some of the metrics (and other factors) I use to assess pitchers. I'll start by saying the ever-expanding advanced metrics are very useful, but I'll qualify that by saying it's also important to watch a pitcher when possible. Knowing what to look for can tell you all you need to know, while advanced metrics sometimes have underlying factors involved that need to be included in your overall evaluation.

Let's look at a sample assessment:

Metrics Assessment: These days there are so many metrics available to fantasy owners. Many of these are incredibly detailed, and most are extremely useful – especially if they include statistics over a long period of time, providing an adequate sample size. As a research analyst in the nonfantasy world, I evaluated both raw data and the application of various statistical approaches to be sure my data didn't skew results. As helpful as data can be, you have to be certain it doesn't give you an unrealistic view.

[Pitcher] suffers from a high BABIP, when the exit velocity exceeds 105 mph, especially against left-handed batters in night games, when the relative humidity is greater than 67 percent, and the game is being played west of the Mississippi on a weeknight in an even numbered month and [Shortstop] is not in the lineup.

Now, obviously, that is an extreme example, but there are a few things that should immediately come to mind as you read it. Does the pitcher have an adequate assortment of pitchers to be effective against left-handed hitters? A right-handed pitcher without a reliable changeup will often be hit hard by lefties. Depending on the weather and time of the year, pitches may not move as much, and the batted ball may carry better at night. Is the game being played in Coors Field, the hitter's paradise in Colorado, or in Oakland, traditionally a very pitcher-friendly venue? Is the even numbered month April (and potentially cold, deadening hits) or August, when the balls often fly? And is that shortstop a gold-glove candidate with exceptional range? As your data accumulates, these variables will usually even out and provide better stats, but you should be aware and question the data when it's possible you could be dealing with an outlier.

Use these metrics! They will generally tell you a lot about your pitcher. At the very least, they can bring potential concerns (or positives) to your attention for further analysis. I just want to make sure you use another tool when assessing a pitcher.

An Old-school Scouts Perspective: That tool would be your own eyesight. When the metrics say a pitcher is potentially volatile or an option to acquire for help, your eyes can validate or disprove the findings. Way back when, before the electronic age, that is how it was done. Today it's just one more part of the process.

Watched [Pitcher] for a couple of innings in his last start. His mechanics appear to be out of synch as he's opening up early causing him to leave many of his pitches up in the zone and out over the plate with diminished movement. Unable to consistently hit his spots with his change-up. Rarely uses it. Very vulnerable to left-handed bats.

Those few minutes of watching the pitcher in question tells me pretty much all I need to know about his likely fantasy value. Obviously, if this pitcher has displayed good/better mechanics in the past or looks like he could be "fixed" fairly easily, the assessment could change in the near future. However, the lack of a reliable third pitch (changeup) suggests that the fix probably won't be something that happens overnight. Below are some things you can watch for when assessing a pitcher.

What to watch for:

• Hitting his target: This is pretty basic but it isn't something everyone thinks about when they watch a pitcher to evaluate potential long term success. Yes, you actually can learn a great deal about a pitcher by watching his catcher. Battery mates have a plan (hopefully), and how well they execute that plan often determines success or failure. Is the catcher moving very little once a pitch is delivered? If the pitcher is hitting the target put down by the catcher consistently, that demonstrates command, and if the pitcher is having trouble commanding a certain pitch that day, he will usually adjust and throw that pitch less often. If the catcher is constantly diving in and out or having to jump up to receive a pitch he asked for low and away, the command isn't there. A pitcher I like to suggest watching for this assessment technique is Justin Verlander. He always seems to be on the same page with his catcher, and he readily adjusts as needed.

• Critical pitch selection: It's nearly impossible for a starting pitcher to maintain a high level of performance at the major league level without a minimum of three reliable pitches. The hitters are simply too good. If they can sit and wait for a pitch, particularly a fastball, they will adjust and start hitting that pitcher. He may get by with a deceptive motion and just a couple of pitches for a while, but it rarely lasts and it's one of the most common traps in evaluating fantasy pitchers. To be listed in a pitcher's repertoire, a pitch has to be something he can and will throw in critical counts and situations. You won't need to watch many games to develop a feel for what pitch might be the best option in a critical count. If the pitcher avoids that pitch when it's really called for and only throws his changeup (for example) when the count is in his favor, beware. He probably lacks real confidence in that pitch, and the hitter is probably also aware of that fact.

• What is really happening: It takes a critical, and unbiased, eye to effectively determine how a pitcher is performing on any given day. Therefore this can be one of the most difficult assessments to make. Have you ever watched a game where one pitcher was consistently serving up lollipops that morphed into laser shots that somehow always found a fielder's glove, while his opponent was throwing darts that the hitters managed to lunge at, lifting bloopers into the field that constantly fell between three defenders? Pitcher A allowed one run on four hits over six-plus innings while pitcher B was touched up for five runs on seven hits and three walks – two intentional trying to escape trouble – in just five innings. Which pitcher do you want on your roster? If you see either of these extremes, good or bad, it's best to watch another start to be sure it wasn't an anomaly. However, if a pitcher clearly has hitters off balance throughout, even if a few hits have seeing eyes, he's worth considering, while a pitcher who somehow survives an outing or two despite providing a backdrop for a 4th of July fireworks show is the definition of a coming apocalypse. Here's the hard part. You have to be objective. The exact same visual cues have to apply whether he's a favorite pitcher on your favorite team or a hated opponent's hurler.

• Opponent hitting history: Metrics (and visual scouting) tends to focus on the pitcher, which is appropriate, but there's another factor that doesn't usually show up in a pitcher's evaluation. Some team's routinely display specific tendencies that should be taken into consideration. For example, a team, whether loaded with left-handed hitters or switch hitters that perform better from the left side of the plate, can easily make an otherwise ordinary southpaw pitcher look like Clayton Kershaw. Or, some teams are extremely patient at the plate, and they can drive a pitcher with edgy command crazy. They swing at nothing on the corners and take at least a few pitches each at bat. The result can be frustration, and higher pitch counts leading to potential mistakes and perhaps an early exit. Don't put too much weight on a surprisingly strong outing by the former or a shaky performance by a pitcher in the latter category.
  

• Keeper League Alert: Players in keeper leagues should always be on the lookout for players they can acquire at a discount price for the future. If the roster allows, a great add would be Shohei Otani of the Nippon Ham Fighters (Japan) who has stated he will come to the United States next season. He is a blue-chipper.

• A good example of opponent hitting history could be Arizona's Patrick Corbin. After a so-so first start, he threw six shutout innings against Cleveland – a team that doesn't fare especially well against lefties – and this week faces the Dodgers who have been awful against southpaws. We'll see how it goes.

• Did you know that the starting pitcher with the second lowest ERA since the end of last June (minimum 100 innings) is the Twins' Ervin Santana? He's off to a great start this year, and while he's not going to be a big strikeout pitcher, he is an innings eater who can help a fantasy team from mid-rotation.

• Watching Lance Lynn – he has been injured so much I (and MLB hitters) don't really remember specifics about what he has. His pitches still don't have the life I would like to see, and he really didn't consistently command the zone. I think hitters will keep hitting him as they re-familiarize themselves with his stuff.

• Nice results for Drew Pomeranz in his first start, but I'm still leery. He threw fastballs and knuckle curves exclusively (only one changeup in 90-plus pitches) and I don't see him living the good life with just two pitches. I love that knuckle curve, but he's going to need an effective changeup.

• Matt Harvey might not be completely back to where he was before the injuries, but he's very close. I watched a couple of innings in his start against the Phillies, and his pitches were really dancing with good velocity. He left the game with a tight hamstring so hopefully this won't impact his future workload.

  Endgame Odyssey:

  Next week we'll take a more detailed look at some of the shaky closer assignments, but things are really wild right now. It didn't surprise anyone when the Phillies removed Jeanmar Gomez, but naming Joaquin Benoit their closer was interesting. There's still a chance Hector Neris will figure into the saves equation at some point. Sam Dyson has been a train wreck in Texas. Most would guess that Matt Bush should be next in line (including me), but he has apparent shoulder issues so Jeremy Jeffress is still lurking in the shadows. The A's continue to do a committee with Sean Doolittle and Santiago Casilla finishing depending on the matchup. In Toronto, Roberto Osuna is back and looked sharp. He should immediately step in as their closer. They won't go too heavy right away, but he's the guy. Blake Treinen remains the primary closer in Washington, but the confidence level may be slipping. I don't think they want to go to Sean Kelley long term and they may not be ready to anoint Koda Glover with the full time gig so they might be shopping outside the organization. In Tiger town, veteran Francisco Rodriguez hasn't been automatic like he once was, but Bruce Rondon was sent down after looking horrible, apparently leaving Justin Wilson next in line. Keep an eye on this one.