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FantasyDraft MLB: Monday Values

Juan Carlos Blanco

Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for close to 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, and the NFL for Rotowire.com, including serving as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' beat writer. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports.

PITCHERS:

Jon Lester, CHC vs. SD ($20,400):- Lester has taken his share of lumps this season, but the majority have come on the road. He’s sporting a 2.65 ERA and allowing a .203 average and .257 wOBA over 51 innings at Wrigley, while the Padres, despite showing notable improvement on offense recently, still carry an NL-high 34.1 percent strikeout rate and a .298 wOBA against southpaws on the road over the last month. Lester scored 34.15 fantasy points in his most recent start, has already eclipsed the 40-mark once this season and has double-digit fantasy points in seven of eight home starts overall.

Jake Odorizzi, TB vs. CIN ($14,700):- Odorizzi has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in three of his last four starts at Tropicana Field and owns a solid 3.11 ERA and .292 wOBA in 37.2 home innings while allowing a .210 batting average. The Reds own a 24.0 percent strikeout rate against righties on the road in the last 30 days, along with a 28.0 percent hard contact rate that’s the third-lowest in the majors against that handedness over that span. They’ve seen an overall dip in performance away from Great American Ballpark against either handedness over the last month, compiling a mediocre .303 road wOBA.

INFIELD

Daniel Murphy, WAS at MIA ($9,200):- Marlins starter Edison Volquez and Murphy have a long history, and the latter has usually walked away with the upper hand. Murphy boasts a .450 average, two doubles and three RBI over 23 career plate appearances against the veteran righty, and also owns a .432 wOBA, 30.0 percent line drive rate and 35.0 percent hard contact rate over his first 69 plate appearances of June. He’s also punishing right-handed pitching, especially on the road, where he’s posted a .459 wOBA, .291 ISO, 185 wRC+ and 34.0 percent hard contact rate. Volquez has surrendered a .357 wOBA, 5.59 xFIP, 21.2 percent line drive rate and 41.1 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, furthering Murphy’s case.

Mike Moustakas, KC vs. BOS ($8,400):- Moustakas has pounded right-handed pitching for a .385 wOBA and .354 ISO on the road, along with a 23.1 percent line drive rate and 38.5 percent hard contact rate. Rookie Red Sox starter Hector Velazquez has very a small sample size to evaluate, but it includes a .530 wOBA and 5.42 xFIP allowed to lefty bats. Moustakas has also hit 14 of his 18 homers on the season off righties and checks into Monday with a .452 wOBA, .351 ISO, five homers and a 38.8 percent hard contact rate in 63 June plate appearances.

Hanley Ramirez, BOS at KC ($6,600):- Ramirez makes for an appealing value play in his own right on the other side of the Red Sox-Royals tilt, considering KC starter Jason Hammel’s .339 wOBA and 5.08 xFIP versus right-handed hitters, as well as Ramirez’s .462 average over 14 career plate appearances against him. Hammel has also surrendered a 21.1 percent line drive rate and 31.9 percent hard contact rate to righty bats at home, while the Royals bullpen has yielded a 4.39 ERA, .342 wOBA, 26.8 percent line drive rate and 35.4 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at Kaufmann Stadium in the last month.

OUTFIELD

Matt Kemp, ATL vs. SF ($9,200):- Giants starter Johnny Cueto has been very hittable on a number of occasions thus far in 2017, putting Kemp in a position to potentially take advantage Monday. He checks into Monday with a .391 wOBA and .231 ISO against righties, along with a robust 33.9 percent line drive rate and 35.7 percent hard contact rate against them at SunTrust Park. Cueto has allowed a .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters, along with a 24.1 percent line drive rate, 22.7 percent HR/FB rate and 38.3 percent hard contact rate to them on the road. Kemp has also gotten the best of him a number of times in their long history, as Cueto has yielded a .353 average, two doubles and three homers to the veteran slugger in 36 career plate appearances.

Josh Bell, PIT at MIL ($8,400):- Brewers starter Matt Garza has had his moments this season but has been especially vulnerable to lefty bats at hitter-friendly Miller Park, surrendering a .394 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9, 5.56 xFIP and 39.5 percent hard contact rate over a 55-batter sample. The switch-hitting Bell counters with a .352 wOBA, .231 ISO and 32.8 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, along with a .410 wOBA, .300 ISO, 23.1 percent line drive rate and 43.6 percent hard contact rate in 57 June plate appearances overall. Brewers relievers have also been generous to left-handed hitters recently, posting a 5.92 ERA and allowing five homers and a .332 wOBA to that handedness in the last month.

Alex Gordon, KC vs. BOS ($6,300):- Gordon has admittedly been untouchable for fantasy purposes for the majority of the season, but his bat has finally started to come around since the calendar flipped to June. Gordon boasts a .367 wOBA and .277 ISO in his last 14 games (55 plate appearances), along with an impressive 37.1 percent line drive rate and 34.3 percent hard contact rate. Meanwhile, rookie starter Hector Velazquez’s struggles against lefty hitters were detailed earlier, and Red Sox relievers have also surrendered a .355 wOBA and 4.50 ERA to that handedness on the road over the last month.

UTILITY:

Carlos Correa, HOU at OAK ($9,600):- A’s rookie Daniel Gossett received a rude introduction to the big leagues against the Marlins on the road last Wednesday and could be in for some more growing pains against a high-powered Astros squad. Correa is as good a candidate as any to dole out some punishment, considering his .386 wOBA and .233 ISO against righties, along with his 21.4 percent line drive rate and 41.4 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness on the road. Gossett surrendered a pair of round trippers to righty bats in his big-league debut, while the Oakland bullpen has given up a majors-high .360 wOBA (along with a 26.0 percent line drive rate and 33.3 percent hard contact rate) to right-handed hitters at home over the last month.

Corey Dickerson, TB vs. CIN ($9,200):- Reds starter Scott Feldman’s Achilles’ heel has been left-handed hitters, particularly outside of Great American Ballpark. The veteran right-hander has allowed a .409 wOBA, 34.0 percent line drive rate and 30.6 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats on the road, while Dickerson has pounded righties for a .397 wOBA, .286 ISO, 21.0 HR/FB rate and 37.7 percent hard contact rate. Feldman’s HR/FB rate versus the 67 left-handed hitters he’s faced on the road is notably a bloated 33.3 percent, and the Reds bullpen has given up a .450 wOBA, 8.83 ERA and 46.8 percent hard contact rate to the 94 lefty bats they’ve seen on the road in the last month.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.