In-Season Strategy: Yahoo H2H Playoff Cheat Sheet

In-Season Strategy: Yahoo H2H Playoff Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our In-Season Strategy series.

In standard Yahoo! head-to-head leagues, six teams qualify for the playoffs and the top two teams earn a bye. The playoffs are comprised of three one-week matchups: Week 20 (March 14-20), Week 21 (March 21-27) and Week 22 (March 28-April 3). One NBA team plays 13 games, seven teams play 12 games, 16 teams play 11 games, five teams play 10 games, and one team plays nine games during that three-week stretch.

The fantasy playoff weeks traditionally fall between Weeks 21-23, and this year added a new wrinkle. While Yahoo promotes Week 20-22 as playoff time, it's only because they merged the week before and after the All-Star break (Week 16-17; Feb. 8-21) into one matchup, thus shifting the labeled playoff weeks ahead by one. By the NBA schedule, Weeks 21-23 align with Weeks 20-22 of the fantasy playoffs because host sites deem each matchup as its own week.

Categorized below are all 30 NBA teams based on their head-to-head playoff schedule (Weeks 20-22). The rankings were constructed using a variety of factors, including but not limited to: total games (13 max; nine min), quality games (six max; 0 min), home/road splits, back-to-backs (five max; one min), and 2016 first-round pick status.

Quality Games

Basketball Monster popularized the term "quality game," which are exploitable games in the schedule where, for the purposes of this exercise, fewer than half the NBA teams play on a single day. Scarcity, in this case fewer daily games played, generates a more valuable commodity. It

In standard Yahoo! head-to-head leagues, six teams qualify for the playoffs and the top two teams earn a bye. The playoffs are comprised of three one-week matchups: Week 20 (March 14-20), Week 21 (March 21-27) and Week 22 (March 28-April 3). One NBA team plays 13 games, seven teams play 12 games, 16 teams play 11 games, five teams play 10 games, and one team plays nine games during that three-week stretch.

The fantasy playoff weeks traditionally fall between Weeks 21-23, and this year added a new wrinkle. While Yahoo promotes Week 20-22 as playoff time, it's only because they merged the week before and after the All-Star break (Week 16-17; Feb. 8-21) into one matchup, thus shifting the labeled playoff weeks ahead by one. By the NBA schedule, Weeks 21-23 align with Weeks 20-22 of the fantasy playoffs because host sites deem each matchup as its own week.

Categorized below are all 30 NBA teams based on their head-to-head playoff schedule (Weeks 20-22). The rankings were constructed using a variety of factors, including but not limited to: total games (13 max; nine min), quality games (six max; 0 min), home/road splits, back-to-backs (five max; one min), and 2016 first-round pick status.

Quality Games

Basketball Monster popularized the term "quality game," which are exploitable games in the schedule where, for the purposes of this exercise, fewer than half the NBA teams play on a single day. Scarcity, in this case fewer daily games played, generates a more valuable commodity. It permits those in leagues with daily roster moves to maximize their games played, while minimizing wasted games and add/drops, which are typically limited.

I've determined seven games, as opposed to Basketball Monster's standard five games, is the requisite benchmark for a quality game. A standard 12-team league rosters 156 players, or 5.2 players per NBA team. When 14 NBA teams (seven games) are in action, approximately 73 active players are rostered. That leaves each fantasy team with roughly six players for 10 active spots in their lineup. It provides leeway for fantasy teams to incorporate one or two streaming slots.

The grid below denotes the number of games on each day during the fantasy playoffs, running from March 14-April 3. Only eight of the 21 days yield quality streaming conditions.

Cheat Sheets

Those in head-to-head leagues that employ weekly lineups can ignore the rank-ordered list and focus on the tiers. Even though the Pacers are ranked ninth and the Suns claim the 24th spot, each team plays 11 games over the three-week fantasy playoff run. Their overall rank is similar if streaming is no longer a factor.

Disclaimers

Each team is equipped with a visual representation of its three-week schedule. Home games are identified with a white background and away games are flanked with a solid color. Any quality game is noted with a thick, bold border.

Some teams will appear to have one more back-to-back set than shown on the calendar. An asterisk (*) denotes a back-to-back set tied to the Sunday prior to the start of the fantasy basketball playoffs. While that Sunday game doesn't count in the fantasy playoffs, the Monday game is still considered the second game of a back-to-back (SEGABABA).

The Monday following Week 23 is the NCAA Championship game. The NBA will not play any games on that night.

Tier One: Team with 13 Games in the Fantasy Playoffs

1. Chicago Bulls

Home/Road: 6/7
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 4
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

Because the Bulls play the most games during the fantasy playoffs, they enter mid-March having played the fewest games (64 - tied with the Toronto Raptors). They are only one of two teams to play a maximum three quality games during Week 22, and their schedule supersedes all other teams during the three-week fantasy playoffs.

Jimmy Butler appears like the most obvious candidate to remain on the team through the trade deadline, so delay targeting Pau Gasol in fantasy leagues until certainty arises.

Tier Two: Teams with 12 Games in the Fantasy Playoffs

2. Denver Nuggets

Home/Road: 3/9
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 3
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Nuggets, much like last season, spend a majority of the fantasy playoffs on the road. They compete in a league-high nine road contests, negating their altitude advantage. They're kicked out of the Pepsi Center during Week 20 for the first and second round of the NCAA tournament and again later in the month for a Colorado Avalanche home stand. Their fantasy schedule is evenly split between Eastern and Western Conference teams.

Through Feb. 7, Danilo Gallinari was shooting eight percent better on three-pointers on the road and Kenneth Faried made seven percent more of his field goals away from Pepsi Center in two fewer minutes per game. I can't explain their broad splits because in previous seasons, both have been as accurate if not better at home. It's a trend worth monitoring as we approach March.

Last season, Jusuf Nurkic played significantly fewer minutes at home (15.5 to 20.2) even though his foul rate per location was nearly identical. Cracking an arbitrary number like 25 minutes per game will be a tall order for the 280-pound center who dealt with ankle and knee issues late last season once the minutes began to pile up. The last Nuggets power forward or center to average more than 30 minutes per game at home was Nene Hilario during the 2009-10 season.

3. Orlando Magic

Home/Road: 5/7
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 4
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Magic's fantasy playoff schedule involves two games against Western Conference teams, each bookending the three-week excursion. While they only compete in three back-to-backs from March 14-April 3, 11 of their 19 back-to-back sets occur after January. Nine of their 11 games from March 7-25 are on the road, and they play 14 of their final 24 regular season games away from home.

In an odd twist, both Nikola Vucevic, whose only attempted 52 free throws through January 11th, and Elfrid Payton are significantly better free-throw shooters on the road (table below). Not coincidentally, each month of the season began with an disproportionate amount of road games. Essentially, the mainstays perform better as visitors, clearing the runway for a quality fantasy playoff run.

Player FT% Home FTM Home FTA Home FT% Road FTM Road FTA Road FTM%
Vucevic 74.1 29 47 61.7 31 34 91.2
Payton 61.5 43 74 58.1 32 48 66.7

4. Sacramento Kings

Home/Road: 5/7
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 4
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Bulls (top-10 protected each of the next two drafts), which was originally sent to Cleveland in the J.J. Hickson, Omri Casspi trade and rerouted to Cleveland in the Luol Deng, Andrew Bynum deal. If the pick lands inside the top-10, the 76ers have the option to swap places via the Nik Stauskas deal. If the Kings pass Go, they will not be allowed to collect $200.

The time of year to exercise caution toward DeMarcus Cousins clicks in during the final five weeks. He's led the league in technical fouls two of the previous three seasons, earning two one-game suspensions prior to the 2014-15 season. His league-leading 11 techs through Feb. 7 and his injury history, combined with the amount of various issues he's played through already, are cause for concern. It's a difficult ask to consider moving him with such a loaded schedule and him being one of three players averaging at least 2.0 assists, 1.0 block, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 three-pointer per game this season - the others being Draymond Green and Kevin Durant. I'm partial to the saying "you can plan the perfect picnic but you can't predict the weather." That's why it's better to wait before locking yourself into a trade that backfires or one you regret.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers

Home/Road: 6/6
Quality Games: 3
Back-to-Backs: 4*
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Suns (top-10 protected) via the Celtics in the Cavaliers attempt to clear cap space prior to signing LeBron James in 2014.

The Cavaliers pack five games into seven nights between Weeks 20 and 21. They're on the road a ton in March, playing eight of 11 games away from Quicken Loans Arena from March 9-26. The competition doesn't appear stiff during this portion of the schedule. That could generate intermittent rest days for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Kevin Love looks reenergized under coach Tyronn Lue, and that will bode well for him should James and Irving alternate games off. As long as all three remain healthy, the Cavaliers should clinch a playoff berth and top seed in the Eastern Conference at some point in March.

6. Toronto Raptors

Home/Road: 5/7
Quality Games: 3
Back-to-Backs: 4
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Raptors only play three home games in February, necessary to facilitate preparations for All-Star weekend, and that translates into a season-high six-game home stand from March 2-14. That disparity accounts for the deluge of road games in the following weeks.

Five games in Week 20 only benefits your fantasy team if you don't earn a bye as one of the top two seeds. If you've earned a bye before the trade deadline (March 3 in standard Yahoo! leagues), consider flipping any Raptors for players with eight games over the final two weeks. That said, the Raptors are the only team to play five times in Week 20, a distinct advantage toward clinching a semifinal berth.

7. Golden State Warriors

Home/Road: 8/4
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: The 76ers have the option to swap the less favorable of the Heat's top-10 protected pick and the Thunder's top-15 protected pick with the Warriors via the Gerald Wallace and Jason Thompson deal. If only one of the protected picks is conveyed to the Sixers, they maintain their swap rights.

Coach Steve Kerr stuck to his guns toward the tail end of last season, only resting his starters when a minor injury occurred. Draymond Green sat a few times due to a shin issue, but when healthy, he played. Klay Thompson rested a week with an ankle problem, then played the final 13 games. Kerr didn't max out their minutes, but he didn't believe in rest for the sake of rest.

The Warriors clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with nine games remaining last season and clinched the top seed in the playoffs with six games left, both of which overlapped the final three weeks of the regular season. As of Feb. 8, the Warriors are only 3.5 games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs, a team they face twice over the final two weeks, so resting starters may not be a viable option this year. I imagine Kerr will rest his key players once or twice during Week 21 against the Timberwolves and Sixers. Because of their place in the standings, it's not a stretch to think most of the players won't compete in all 16 games during the abridged fantasy playoffs.

8. Washington Wizards

Home/Road: 5/7
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Wizards close out the fantasy playoffs with five road games against Pacific Division opponents. 10 of their 16 games in March come on the road, including two west coast trips. The Wizards are displaced on account of Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Presents Circus XTREME, a four-day bonanza that redefines the word "extreme."

Tier Three: Teams with 11 Games in the Fantasy Playoffs

9. Indiana Pacers

Home/Road: 8/3
Quality Games: 6
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Pacers are one of only two teams to play a maximum three quality games during Week 22. They play 11 of their final 16 games at home and a league-high six quality games during the three-week fantasy playoffs.

The influx of home games doesn't give any player a distinct advantage or disadvantage. The inordinate amount of quality games bodes well for the Pacers' tertiary fantasy players. Individuals like Jordan Hill and Rodney Stuckey will find usefulness in Week 21 and 22, where a majority of the quality games take place.

10. Brooklyn Nets

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 5
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Boston Celtics by way of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trade.

Talk about four games in five nights. The Nets five-game Week 23 schedule encompasses two quality games. They're blessed with just one game against the Western Conference and a league-high five games during Week 22. You could stream Bojan Bogdanovic or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (ankle) that week, but this is probably a case of a great closing schedule wasted on a bereft fantasy team. The Nets are one of four teams to play a minimum six games the first two weeks, yet rank the highest for their Week 23 buffet.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 5
Back-to-Backs: 4
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Pit of Despair doubles as an apt analogy for the Sixers' fantasy prospects. Other than the widely owned Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, Ish Smith should pay dividends for the remainder of the season. Besides a potential re-emergence of Robert Covington, most of the current Sixers don't instill confidence in any given week. You can pick and and choose between the rest of the roster when streaming single games, and the end of Week 21 presents one of two chances that weekend to take advantage of a back-to-back - the other belonging to the Pacers.

12. Los Angeles Clippers

Home/Road: 4/7
Quality Games: 5
Back-to-Backs: 5
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Clippers play the most back-to-backs during the three-week playoffs and square off against Western Conference powerhouses throughout the first week and a half. They either have two days off or no days off prior to their games, and that could violently swing their production throughout a week.

Consider the following trends pertaining to the jagged schedule (through Feb. 7):

  • Blake Griffin (knee) plays fewer than 30 minutes per game on zero days rest and may miss a significant portion of the fantasy playoffs;
  • Paul Pierce shoots 31 percent from the floor on the second night of a back-to-back;
  • J.J. Redick shoots 41.5 percent from the floor on the second night of a back-to-back, down from 49.0 percent when he receives at least one day off;
  • Chris Paul, due to some early season injuries, shoots 43 percent in road games, a six percent drop from home games, and 29 percent on threes as a visitor, a 19 percent decline from his accuracy at Staples Center.
13. New Orleans Pelicans

Home/Road: 6/5
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 1
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Pelicans are one of five teams gifted one back-to-back during the three-week fantasy playoff run. Many players experience an increase in efficiency after an off day as opposed to zero days of rest, and that held firm for most of the Pelicans last season.

The Pelicans are 18-32, the fourth-worst record in the Western Conference and sixth-worst overall. They are seven games back of the final playoff seed in the West, but they've struggled to implement Alvin Gentry's offensive scheme and are playing league-average defense for the second straight season. Possessors of their first-round draft pick, shutting down Anthony Davis or Tyreke Evans at season's end makes long-term sense. When the Pelicans were attempting to keep their top-6 protected pick at the end of the 2013-14 season, Davis missed seven of the final 16 games and the final five games overall due to "back spasms." The Pelicans ended the season with the 10th-worst record and conveyed their pick to the Sixers. It would behoove management to learn from their previous mistake and increase their chances at the first overall pick. Davis is a perpetual injury-risk who's never played more than 68 games in a season. It makes sense to add him to the trade block, and you're welcome to wait until the Pelicans are firmly out of postseason talk before shopping him.

14. Houston Rockets

Home/Road: 7/4
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Nuggets (lottery protected) due to the Ty Lawson deal.

The Rockets endure a season-long five-game east coast road trip immediately before the start of the fantasy playoffs.

Patrick Beverley has only played 56 games each of the last two seasons. Playing fewer minutes can depress his propensity for injuries, but with the exception of the Utah Jazz in Week 21, Beverley's services on the defensive end will be heavily required during the fantasy playoffs.

Dwight Howard leads the NBA with 11 technical fouls, tied with DeMarcus Cousins as of Feb. 7. Howard has routinely been among the league's egregious violators, accumulating double-digit techs almost every year since the 2007-08 season. He led the NBA in the 2010-11 season with 18 technical fouls, warranting two one-game suspensions. The league mandates a suspension on the 16th tech as well as every two that follow. It's an ominous sign for a player who only fits a punt free-throw percentage build.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the 76ers (top-15 protected each of the next two drafts) via the Nuggets by way of the Cavaliers. The pick was rerouted thrice over the course of a month, ultimately landing in Philadelphia along with JaVale McGee.

The Thunder only host Western Conference teams and play five of their six road contests against the Eastern Conference. The Thunder is 5.5 games back of the two-seed as of Feb. 8 and will likely slot into the three-seed toward the end of March, permitting coach Billy Donovan to rest his starters. And to be frank, there are only three players worth owning in standard leagues. The rest of the supporting cast can be judiciously streamed.

16. Portland Trail Blazers

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 4
Back-to-Backs: 3
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Nuggets (lottery protected each of the next two seasons) in the deal for Arron Afflalo.

Allen Crabbe earned potential streaming consideration during Week 20 and 22, and should the Trail Blazers continue to compete for the final playoff spot (they are one game back as of Feb. 8) Damian Lillard won't miss sporadic games to help improve the team's chances of a high lottery pick. Chances are, the Trail Blazers fall out of the postseason contention, and with all of Lillard's accumulating injuries, coach Terry Stotts may opt for rest over risking injury. In fact, the Blazers employed a similar strategy at the end of the 2012-13 season, losing a franchise record 13 straight to retain their top-12 protected pick. They nabbed C.J. McCollum tenth overall.

17. Boston Celtics

Home/Road: 3/8
Quality Games: 3
Back-to-Backs: 3
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

Eight road games against primarily Western Conference teams lands near the top of the list among toughest schedules. The TD Garden hosts the 2016 ISU World Figure Skating Championships during Week 23, the impetus behind the west-coast road trip.

Coach Brad Stevens, a.k.a. Even Stevens, doesn't utilize a set rotation. This is especially true for the frontcourt. Jared Sullinger is playing 23.4 minutes per game, most among the bigs. Amir Johnson found his groove of late, but it's either him and his unguaranteed deal next season or David Lee who gets sent out the door if general manager Danny Ainge can swing a deal for a high-priced talent. Kelly Olynyk teases with a solid game every few weeks, but his reluctance and lack of aggression result in fluctuated playing time and performances.

Isaiah Thomas has performed better on the road and against the Western Conference this season, a recipe for a stellar end-of-season run. However, he's succumbed to injuries each of the past two springs, costing him at least eight games in both instances.

Avery Bradley is shooting 40 percent on threes on the road versus 32 percent at home this season. His ability to shoot well will come in handy during the fantasy playoffs considering the Celtics' road-heavy schedule.

18. Dallas Mavericks

Home/Road: 3/8
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 1
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Celtics (top-7 protected through 2020) via the Rajon Rondo deal.

Schedule-wise, the Mavericks engage in only three back-to-backs after Feb. 6, lessening their workload for the stretch run. They're one of four teams scheduled for one back-to-back over the three-week fantasy playoffs.

Dirk Nowitzki is an interesting case study this season. His stats through 48 games parallel his numbers from last season, a campaign that was marred by the appearance of Rajon Rondo, who caused a 14-percent dropoff in Nowitzki's three-point shooting when they shared the court. Draymond Green, who will square off against Nowitzki on two occasions, has limited Nowitzki to 18-of-54 shooting over the past two seasons, per NBAsavant.com. In their first meeting this season, Nowitzki shot 3-of-12 when Green was on the court, and you can expect more of the same in their Week 20 and Week 21 matchups. And lastly, Nowitzki has fared far better when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season (table below). Wesley Matthews suffers from the same affliction, performing much better when he doesn't get a day of rest.

Nowitzki PTS REB AST 3PT FG% 3PT% MPG
0 Days Rest 23.1 8.0 2.3 2.1 47.0 45.2 33.9
1 Day Rest 15.6 6.1 1.6 1.4 43.6 38.8 29.9
2 Days Rest 18.0 6.6 1.4 1.7 44.1 35.1 31.6

19. Detroit Pistons

Home/Road: 9/2
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 3
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Pistons bask in home games during the fantasy playoffs. They go 18 days between road games during the three-week timeframe.

Through Feb. 8, the Pistons are 16-8 at the the Palace of Auburn Hills and scored five more points per game on marginally better efficiency. As you'd suspect, Reggie Jackson accumulates two more assists in home games (7.1 per) and converts 43 percent of his three-pointers, an increase from 29 percent in road games. The hometown scorekeeper may have a hand in Jackson's assist numbers, and Jackson certainly plays to the crowd. Ersan Ilyasova joins Jackson as a homebody, shooting nine percent better from long distance at home.

20. Utah Jazz

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 3*
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Jazz's longest road trip of the season stretches from March 19-26, spanning five games in eight nights.

Rudy Gobert is back from a sprained MCL, and the Jazz have five combined games against the Suns, Timberwolves, and Lakers that are ripe with high-block potential. Gobert can help you secure a victory in that stat as the Jazz vie for a playoff seed.

21. Charlotte Hornets

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 3
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Hornets' playoff schedule is front loaded with a five-games-in-seven-nights excursion. They are one of two teams to play a league-low five games over the final 12 days (March 23-April 3) of the fantasy playoffs. Three of their final five games are against the defensively-inept Bucks and Sixers.

The 76ers were a much improved defense last season, finishing 12th in Defensive Rating. Al Jefferson's numbers against the Sixers were deceptive because he was held to 6-of-20 shooting when guarded by Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, per NBAsavant.com, and 12-of-20 against Henry Sims and Nerlens Noel. Potentially matching up against rookie Jahlil Okafor, Jefferson is in line for a monumental Championship Week performance.

22. Memphis Grizzlies

Home/Road: 5/6
Quality Games: 1
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Nuggets (top-5 and non-lottery protected) via the Cavaliers in the Timofey Mozgov deal.

From March 6 through March 22 (17 days), the Grizzlies play 11 games with no more than one day off at any point. It's their most grueling portion of the entire season, and it could result in periodic rest days or minutes restrictions as the stretch progresses. Much like the 21st-ranked Hornets, the Grizzlies' fantasy playoff schedule is front loaded with six games in the first nine days, leaving five games over the remaining 12 days, including two against the Spurs. One quality game caps Tony Allen's usefulness as a streamer candidate, and Jeff Green is Jeff Green.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves

Home/Road: 6/5
Quality Games: 0
Back-to-Backs: 1
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the Celtics (top-12 protected). If the pick isn't conveyed, the Celtics will receive the Timberwolves' 2016 and 2017 second-round picks.

In terms of difficulty, the Timberwolves compete against a playoff or near-playoff team every night and encounter just one Eastern Conference foe. The team lacks any quality games, limiting the usefulness of their fringe talent in a streaming situation, and it doesn't make sense to clue in on those players until the semifinals when the Timberwolves play four games in consecutive weeks.

I don't think they'll be forced to play with only eight healthy players like they did much of the second half of last season. With most of the veterans approaching coach Sam Mitchell's age, he'd be a fool to prioritize winning over developing talent. Kevin Martin is no longer in the rotation, and he may not be on the team after the trade deadline. Nikola Pekovic, another player consuming rotation minutes, has missed at least 20 games for the last four seasons, and his weight continues to negatively impact his lower body. It's merely a matter of time before his season ends due to injury.

24. Phoenix Suns

Home/Road: 6/5
Quality Games: 0
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Suns' schedule includes with two games each against the Lakers, Timberwolves and Jazz. All three opponents roster capable defensive centers.

The Suns give me the most trouble when trying to forecast who to target or what to look for because I think they're due for a roster overhaul. They're falling out of the playoff discussion and players like Markieff Morris (malcontent), Jon Leuer (final year of his contract) and Tyson Chandler (if they can get rid of his contract) may no longer be Suns after the trade deadline. That may result in viable pieces returning and further mucking up the rotation.

Tier Four: Teams with 10 Games in the Fantasy Playoffs

25. San Antonio Spurs

Home/Road: 7/3
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 1
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

I'm looking at what is potentially the most difficult cluster of opponents during the default fantasy playoffs. Much has been made of coach Gregg Popovich's resting habits, but they were muted last season as the Spurs fought for the No. 2 seed up until the final day of the regular season. In lieu of sitting players, Popovich merely reduced their playing time during the second half of the season (chart below), aided by Kawhi Leonard's availability and resulting in an 11-game winning streak with an average margin of victory of 18.7 points before ultimately losing on the final day of the season.

Players Minutes Per Game
Pre All-Star Break
Minutes Per Game
Post All-Star Break
Kawhi Leonard 32 31.5
Danny Green 30.3 25.3
Tim Duncan 29.9 27.2
Tony Parker 29.1 28.2
Manu Ginobili 24.7 18.8

26. Milwaukee Bucks

Home/Road: 7/3
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The overwhelming home games work well for the Bucks, a team sporting a 7-24 record on the road through Feb. 8. They're one of the slowest teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before Michael Carter-Williams faces competition for his starting point guard job or gets outright traded. Jerryd Bayless is one of coach Jason Kidd's favorites, and with his ability to stretch the defense by shooting a team-high 43 percent on threes, he'll battle with Carter-Williams for minutes even if he doesn't get promoted to the starting lineup.

T-27. Miami Heat

Home/Road: 5/5
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the 76ers (top-10 protected). This pick originally came to Cleveland in the LeBron James sign-and-trade and was then flipped to the Sixers in the Thaddeus Young, Kevin Love, Andrew Wiggins three-team deal.

Overall, six of their 10 games are against the Western Conference. Conversely, the Heat's Championship Week is doused with non-playoff opponents. Josh McRoberts (knee) and Gerald Green may play a factor in standard leagues during the final week of the playoffs, the most pertinent time to stream players from the Heat.

T-27. New York Knicks

Home/Road: 5/5
Quality Games: 2
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: The Nuggets have the right to swap picks due to the Carmelo Anthony deal. The lesser of the two picks belongs to the Toronto Raptors because of the Andrea Bargnani trade. That was the sound of a tool chest falling down the stairs.

The Knicks play the most games (68) prior to the start of the default fantasy playoffs. Both Week 20 and 21 are shaping up to entail plenty of garbage time minutes. From March 8-19, the Knicks engage in a season-high six-game road trip. They go 14 days between home games. Game over, man. Game over.

29. Atlanta Hawks

Home/Road: 5/5
Quality Games: 0
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owned

The Hawks are one of three teams without a quality game on the schedule. Most of the fantasy value is concentrated in the starting lineup, so streaming will likely come from another NBA team during the head-to-head playoffs. In fact, the Hawks may lose Mike Scott to the justice system and potentially trade Dennis Schroder or Jeff Teague to replenish their bench.

Tier Five: Team with Nine Games in the Fantasy Playoffs

30. Los Angeles Lakers

Home/Road: 7/2
Quality Games: 3
Back-to-Backs: 2
2016 First-Round Draft Pick Status: Owed to the 76ers (top-3 protected each of the next two years) via the Suns in the Steve Nash deal.

The Lakers play the fewest number of games (nine), are the only team with single-digit fantasy playoff games, and they don't enter the eastern time zone. This is a team to avoid during Week 20 before confidently using their players for their five-games-in-seven-nights journey at the start of Week 21.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
J.J. Calle
J.J. Calle is a fantasy basketball prognosticator with mesmerizing hair who also aggregates obscure stats. Allegiances reside with the New York Knicks, New York Mets, Houston Texans, Penn State Nittany Lions, St. John's Red Storm, and Gael Monfils.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Sunday, April 28
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Sunday, April 28
NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Sunday, April 28
NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Sunday, April 28
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Saturday, April 27
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Saturday, April 27
NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, April 27
NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, April 27