The Prospect Post: The Next Great Chicago Bull

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

There have been three truly great players for the Chicago Bulls in the modern era: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Derrick Rose. It seems highly unlikely at this point that Rose will ever return to the level of greatness he showed during his 2010-11 MVP season. However, the future in Chicago still looks very bright because of a 24-year-old rookie from Montenegro -- Nikola Mirotic.

Excels At Creating Contact

When looking through Mirotic's tape in recent games, the first thing that stands out is how often he draws contact around the hoop.

The numbers back this up, as his 5.9 free-throw attempts per-36 minutes ranks eighth among forwards and centers who have played at least 20 games this season. This puts him in the company of DeMarcus Cousins, Blake Griffin, Mason Plumlee, Kevin Durant, Gordon Hayward, Marc Gasol and Carmelo Anthony. That's not bad for a rookie. Once his usage rate picks up in future seasons, he could find himself near the top of that list, as he is so good at getting defenders off balance and in the air when he drives to the hoop.

Mirotic has the James Harden-esque ability to find contact while making a shooting motion without REALLY attempting a shot. His and-one drives are impressive, but so many times he just goes searching for contact without making a good faith attempt at scoring, and not many players do this with such regularity.

Once he becomes the Bulls' go-to scorer, he will be getting seven-to-eight points per game from the free-throw line, which will make him incredibly valuable in fantasy. While he shoots 78.9 percent from the line this season, that rate will surely trend up, as players almost always improve upon their shooting percentages from their rookie season.

High Basketball IQ

Mirotic's basketball IQ is already excellent, as he is great a creating space by slipping to the hoop, cutting back door, etc…

He is also a very capable passer, though in his role on the Bulls, passing is not something that is expected of him.

As a rookie power forward, to already have the handles to go coast-to-coast suggests that he will be able to do that and much more off the dribble with more experience.

His quest to get to the free-throw line also suggests that he is already a very smart player. He also seems to have a good knack of knowing when to shoot and when to try to drive when he gets the ball in catch-and-shoot situations.

Mirotic may never be an elite source of assists for his position, but he will be solid with time, especially once teams start double-teaming him. He should be a good source of other non-scoring categories too, as he averages 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.2 blocks per-36 minutes.

Explaining Mirotic's Poor Shooting

This is the toughest part of evaluating Mirotic. When watching him shoot, he looks very capable, and the degree of difficulty on some of his three-pointers is extreme.

But most of the numbers do not back up the fact that this is a major skill. At least not yet. The biggest reason why his overall field-goal percentage is so dreadful (39.8 percent) is that 48.7 of his attempts are from downtown. Another key reason for his low overall shooting percentage is that he is making around 15 percent of his shots between three and 15 feet from the basket, yet those shots make up 12.7 percent of his attempts. Either his success on those shots needs to greatly improve, or he needs to eliminate those shots from his game. The good news is Mirotic is shooting 45.9 percent from between 16 feet and the three-point line, which is absurdly good for a rookie. Here is how Mirotic stacks up against some other notable forwards with renowned mid-range jump shots from between 16 feet and the three-point line:

David West - 51.6 percent
Dirk Nowitzki - 49.6 percent
Nikola Mirotic - 45.9 percent
Paul Millsap - 44.3 percent
Anthony Davis - 42.7 percent
LaMarcus Aldridge - 40.1 percent
Kevin Durant - 40 percent

If a player ranks third on this list as a rookie, then it would stand to reason that said player is a good shooter, and will only continue to improve. That lends optimism to the idea that Mirotic could improve on his 32.9 percent shooting from downtown, as his shot certainly passes the eye test.

On the surface it's hard to be so optimistic about a player with Mirotic's shooting struggles, especially when that is supposed to be a big part of his game. But after digging around the advanced stats, I think there is hope that this can be a strength for the 6-foot-10 stretch-four in future seasons. This offseason he will be able to analyze what kind of shots he should be taking more of and what shots he needs to spend time refining in the gym before looking for them during games.

Where Does He Rank Among His Peers?

The list of players with fewer than three years of experience in the NBA that I would take over Mirotic for the next five years is quite small. Here are the tiers:

Tier One:
Anthony Davis

Tier Two:
2. Andrew Wiggins
3. Damian Lillard

Tier Three:
4. Rudy Gobert
5. Draymond Green
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo
7. Nikola Mirotic
8. Joel Embiid
9. Andre Drummond
10. Bradley Beal
11. Victor Oladipo
12. Dante Exum
13. Nerlens Noel

This is my list, and I'm sure there are many who would take issue with the order, but the point is, I would not argue if anyone wanted to take Mirotic over anyone else in the third tier. He is a true franchise building block, and going into next year, it would not be surprising for him to be treated like a top-75 pick in re-draft fantasy leagues, even with the log jam in Chicago's frontcourt. There have been whispers about coach Tom Thibodeau moving on from the Bulls due to a strained relationship with his bosses, but if he stays, I would wager Mirotic will be the reason why.