Hoops Lab: Can Toronto Make a Real Challenge for the East?

Last week we talked about the top-two seeds out West, so this week let's bring it to the East. The Cavaliers have been the prohibitive favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference since before the season began. After all, a LeBron James-led team has represented the East in the finals for five consecutive seasons. This year was supposed to just be No. 6.

With that said, we're 70 games into the season and the Toronto Raptors are only one game behind the Cavaliers in the loss column. Both are eight games in the loss column ahead of every other team in the East, so there is a clear separation. The Raptors have been pretty competitive in the East for the last couple of years, but they have shown a tendency to fade late in the season and in the playoffs, leaving many to think of them more as also-rans than legitimate contenders. But this season they've played at a higher level, and held onto that higher level for longer. The Raptors are on pace for 57 wins, which would be a franchise record. So the question is: can Toronto make a legitimate challenge to win the Eastern Conference and represent them in the Finals?

My answer: unfortunately for Drake, I just don't see it happening. But, let's look into that.

I discussed this very topic recently with Jason Rubin on TYT Sports, and I deliver my punchline there. I think that the Raptors are for real this year, in that they won't fade into the playoffs. But ultimately, I think that as long as LeBron is healthy the Raptors just don't have the horses to overcome the Cavs in a seven-game series. Here, since I've got more space to work, let's go into more detail.

The Raptors are primarily driven on offense by Kyle Lowry (11.6 win shares) and DeMar DeRozan (8.6 win shares) with Jonas Valanciunas (5.6 win shares) capable of scoring in the interior and shooters at the other positions. On defense, Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo give them a formidable back line while DeMarre Carroll (when healthy) and Kyle Lowry are plus defenders on the perimeter. They are a solid team from top-to-bottom, with well defined roles and few real weaknesses. Lowry is playing like a superstar (those 11.6 win shares are fifth in the league, behind only Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard and just ahead of LeBron James) and seems to be in much better physical shape this season (Jason Rubin keeps referring to him as Skinny Kyle Lowry), and this seems to be helping him finish the season stronger, which bodes well for their playoff chances.

However, the Raptors look a lot like the upstart Eastern challenger from last season, the Atlanta Hawks. Another team with solid talent across the board, well defined roles on offense and defense and a synergy to make the whole better than the sum of the parts. But, like the Hawks, the Raptors just lack the front-end talent of the best-of-the-best. They have a team that will win a lot of regular-season games, but in the playoffs when the defenses tighten up, it often becomes a case of one team's strength being strong enough to overcome whatever strategy the other throws at them.

I don't think that Lowry and/or DeRozan will be enough individual fire power to compete with the Cavs. LeBron has been pacing himself all season, and thus playoff LeBron has upside to move up a couple of levels, which Lowry can't match. Similarly, while the Raptors are strong on both sides of the ball, they don't have a mega-dominant unit (either offense or defense) that an opponent just can't defend. The Cavaliers have a very strong across-the-board defense, ranking in the top-10 in least production allowed to all five positions. The Raptors' defense is only a tick behind, but the physical mismatch that is LeBron in the playoffs would put severe stress on that unit, and should open things up for Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to further exploit. I don't see the Raptors, even as good as Lowry and DeRozan can be, exerting as much pressure on the Cavs' defense.

As such, I see the Raptors as likely to play a high caliber of ball that will make them a tough out. But when the cards are down, even if they are able to advance through the first two rounds in an Eastern Conference, that is surprisingly more solid than usual among playoff teams, I just don't think they have enough to take down King James and crew. LeBron goes to his sixth straight finals, and then the real fun is trying to figure out whether the Cavs are good enough to make it competitive. But that's a story for another day.

Around the NBA

• Anthony Davis has been shut down for the season so that he can have surgery on his shoulder and knee. He says that he has been playing with a torn labrum for three years and that he is finally getting it fixed. If that's true, it suggests tantalizing things for what his upside could be if fully healthy. On the flip side, these injuries also add to the fragile label that he's been cultivating. Davis is expected to be out for four-to-five months, which means that he'll miss the Olympics, but he should be back in time to vie for the No. 1 overall pick in next year's fantasy drafts.

• Blake Griffin is still without a formal timetable to return from quad and hand injuries, but Doc Rivers says that he still expects Griffin to return before the playoffs. However, with most teams currently in their fantasy playoffs, if Griffin still has no timetable to return, that's essentially the death knell to him actually being able to contribute to a fantasy team this season. If you haven't already, it would certainly seem justified for you to drop him.

• Chandler Parsons is officially out for at least the next four games as the Mavericks explore treatments on his knee, but it has already been reported by ESPN that Parsons is expected to undergo season-ending knee surgery. While it might be worth it to hold onto him until the diagnosis becomes official, if you need the roster spot it makes sense to cut bait. Oh, and speaking of the Mavs, holy crap Dirk Nowitzki! Way to represent for the old guys.

• Nikola Vucevic has been "day-to-day" with a groin injury for more than two weeks. He is listed as out for Wednesday's game, which will be his 10th consecutive absence. He is still listed as questionable for Friday, which means that the team still expects him back at any time, which makes him hard to cut. But man, his timing for an extended absence with a nagging issue couldn't be worse for season-long players.

• Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes are both expected to return from injuries Wednesday. This returns the 76ers to as close to full health as they'll have for the rest of the season, with both Jahlil Okafor and, of course, Joel Embiid done. This is more newsworthy for DFS purposes, as for a while injury absences were making the 76ers a hot bed of value plays. Now the team rotation will be more similar to what it's been all season.

• This isn't fantasy related, but TNT announcer Craig Sager said Tuesday that his leukemia is no longer in remission, and that doctors have told him that he only has three to six months to live. Sager is one of the good guys in the game, and his over-the-top wardrobe choices have made him a fan and player favorite. I'm wishing him all the best, and hope he's able to beat down the leukemia for a third time. #SagerStrong

Back-to-backs 3/22 – 3/29

TW: Rockets, Lakers, Heat
WT: Bulls, Cavaliers, Clippers, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Jazz
TF: none
FS: Hawks, Hornets, Pistons, Bucks, Timberwolves, Magic, Suns, Spurs, Raptors
SS: Pacers, 76ers
SM: Mavericks, Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers, Kings
MT: Nets, Bulls, Thunder

New Additions and DFS Values

Amir Johnson (49 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues): Johnson has picked it up of late, making himself a nightly double-double threat and playing strong interior defense for a Celtics squad that needs it. Over the last week, he is averaging 11.5 points, 9.3 boards and 1.0 blocked shots in more than 27 minutes per game.

Toney Douglas (24 percent): With Anthony Davis shut down, that makes the top three scoring options for the Pelicans out for the season. This has opened up opportunities, and Douglas has taken advantage of it to average 14.8 points, 5.4 assists, 5.0 boards, 2.2 treys and 1.6 steals per game over his last five.

Cody Zeller (18 percent): Zeller is a non-sexy add, a role-playing big man who could help those that need that skill set. Over his last five games he is averaging 8.6 points, 7.6 boards and 1.4 blocks while shooting 60 percent from the field. In that stretch he has a 13-point, 13-rebound game, a 10-point, five-block one and a six-point, 14-rebound outing, so he's finding ways to contribute most nights.

Jon Leuer (12 percent): Leuer is somewhat of a speculative add based on the notion that veteran Tyson Chandler may miss extended time with back spasms since there is no impetus to rush him back. Leuer has shown that he can be productive as a starter, averaging 11.0 points with 6.3 boards, 1.7 assists, 0.8 treys, 0.7 steals and 0.6 blocks per game in 23 starts this season.