This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Thursday's five-game NBA slate carries heavy playoff implications, paving the way for clutch performers to greatly help out both their teams and fantasy owners. While all eyes will be on the Spurs and Warriors, players from less heralded matchups are likely to steal the spotlight on the individual level. The guys most likely to do so are listed below, as they make up the night's top value plays.
GUARD
Patrick Beverley, HOU vs. PHO ($14) - The modestly-priced point guard has caught fire from deep, connecting on 12 3-pointers in the last five games while topping 33.0 fantasy points three times in that span. Beverley's increased offensive involvement bodes well for his chances of another strong performance with Phoenix's 29th-ranked defense in town, and the downside risk of drafting him is nearly non-existent due to his affordability.
Rajon Rondo, SAC vs. MIN ($30) - A rested Rondo came out with a vengeance Tuesday, posting a triple-double against the Trail Blazers. While a repeat of that performance is unlikely, he would still live up to his price if he accrued just half of those statistics, and Minnesota's 25th-ranked defense is unlikely to keep him from doing so. As long as he isn't randomly sitting to rest again, Rondo is a safe bet to provide value.
Guard to Avoid:
Derrick Rose, CHI at MIA ($24) - Rose's middling performance Tuesday against the Grizzlies in his return from an elbow injury was par for the course, as he's managed to exceed 30.0 fantasy point just once in his last five appearances while falling under 20.0 three times. He's simply too brittle to be trusted, especially considering his limited effectiveness on the rare occasion he does get through a full game unscathed.
Others to Avoid: Jimmy Butler ($39), Tony Parker ($16), Andre Iguodala ($13)
FORWARD
DeMar DeRozan, TOR at ATL ($35) - DeRozan played wonderfully in leading the Raptors to a 3-0 record over the past week, putting up an average of over 40.0 fantasy points per game. That included 47.5 fantasy points against these same Hawks on Mar. 30, and there is little to suggest that a repeat isn't in order for Toronto's leading scorer.
Nikola Mirotic, CHI at MIA ($17) - Even with a clunker against the Pistons thrown in, Mirotic is averaging 33.1 fantasy points per game over his last five. He's getting heavy minutes down the stretch as the beat-up Bulls look to make a playoff push, and his combination of shooting and rebounding gives him a variety of ways to exceed his $17 price. Mirotic's superior upside compared to alternatives in his price range makes him the logical choice despite a less-than-ideal matchup against the Heat.
Forward to Avoid:
Alex Len, PHO at HOU ($21) - Len has been struggling this month, totaling just 42.7 fantasy points in three games. It's possible the wear-and-tear of the NBA season is catching up to the young big man, as he's never previously been asked to play this many minutes in a season. With Len struggling and veteran Tyson Chandler playing well, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Suns cut back even further on the youngster's burden so as to avoid injury.
Others to Avoid: Paul Millsap ($34), Harrison Barnes ($17)
CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at SAC ($40) - Towns is really coming into his own late in the season, creating some separation for the Rookie of the Year Award with eight performances over 40.0 fantasy points in his last 10. All indicators point to another strong performance against the worst defensive team in the league, as his ability to manufacture points both inside and away from the basket make the Kentucky product tough to slow down. He doesn't come cheap, but Towns' combination of consistency and matchup makes him a safe play with plenty of upside even at $40.
Center to Avoid:
Al Horford, ATL vs. TOR ($29) - Horford has been consistently mediocre lately, except when the Raptors limited him to a mere seven points and seven rebounds Mar. 30. His upside isn't high enough to risk a repeat of that performance for $29, especially with multiple alternatives at the position tearing it up down the stretch.
Others to Avoid: Dwight Howard ($28), Andrew Bogut ($11)
