Category Strategy: Early Standouts Returning From Injury

Category Strategy: Early Standouts Returning From Injury

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

Gary Harris is already too widely owned in Yahoo (68%) and CBS (67%) leagues to qualify for this column, but ESPN (29%) users need to take note. While I have my reservations about the Denver wing situation – too many talented players, not enough minutes to go around – Harris warrants ownership in all 12-team leagues and most 10-team league. His production floor is a young Gordon Hayward, and his ceiling is a more recent version of the same.

The 76ers, Hornets and Raptors play only two games this week. Each of these teams roster a few waiver players of interest, and the short weeks diminishes those players' waiver value in most settings. Eighteen teams play three games this week, leaving only nine teams with four games. Those teams are the Bulls, Cavaliers, Celtics, Clippers, Lakers, Spurs, Timberwolves, Thunder, and Warriors. As a result, all of their players are more valuable this week.

Points

Robert Covington, 76ers
Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo – 65%; CBS – 73%)

Covington has received a lot of mentions in this column, mostly as an "other suggestions" add for threes and steals. When he hits his shooting groove, however, he add potent scorer to his resume, and he becomes a strong option for almost any team. He is finally getting good minutes, averaging 33.4 minutes per game over his last five. In that span, he has scored 15.6 points per game, in addition to 1.4 threes and 0.8 steals. He also shot a

Gary Harris is already too widely owned in Yahoo (68%) and CBS (67%) leagues to qualify for this column, but ESPN (29%) users need to take note. While I have my reservations about the Denver wing situation – too many talented players, not enough minutes to go around – Harris warrants ownership in all 12-team leagues and most 10-team league. His production floor is a young Gordon Hayward, and his ceiling is a more recent version of the same.

The 76ers, Hornets and Raptors play only two games this week. Each of these teams roster a few waiver players of interest, and the short weeks diminishes those players' waiver value in most settings. Eighteen teams play three games this week, leaving only nine teams with four games. Those teams are the Bulls, Cavaliers, Celtics, Clippers, Lakers, Spurs, Timberwolves, Thunder, and Warriors. As a result, all of their players are more valuable this week.

Points

Robert Covington, 76ers
Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo – 65%; CBS – 73%)

Covington has received a lot of mentions in this column, mostly as an "other suggestions" add for threes and steals. When he hits his shooting groove, however, he add potent scorer to his resume, and he becomes a strong option for almost any team. He is finally getting good minutes, averaging 33.4 minutes per game over his last five. In that span, he has scored 15.6 points per game, in addition to 1.4 threes and 0.8 steals. He also shot a respectable 46.2 percent from the field in his last five, but that's unusually high for him, and managers should anticipate that Covington will hurt them in that category. Nonetheless, as long as his minutes stay high, his scoring should be, too.

Other suggestions: Nick Young, Lakers; Gary Harris, Nuggets; Tim Hardaway, Hawks; Terrance Ross, Raptors

Three-Pointers

Tim Hardaway, Hawks
Ownership: ESPN – 7%; Yahoo – 15%; CBS – 21%)

Kent Bazemore is returning to the starting lineup after playing 30 minutes in Saturday's game. Few picked up Hardaway while Bazemore was ailing, and many of those will take Bazemore's return as the impetus to drop Hardaway and get a head start on the new best thing. I'd advise otherwise. Before Bazemore missed two games due to knee troubles, Hardaway averaged 25.3 minutes and 15.7 points per night over a three game span. Over the course of the season, Hardaway is averaging 1.5 threes in just 22.9 minutes per game. If Bazemore continues to feel healthier and expand his role, Hardaway could end up being a short-term add, but I expect him to continue to warrant ownership for at least the next few games – if not the next few months.

Other suggestions: JJ Barea, Mavericks; JR Smith, Cavaliers; Garrett Temple, Kings
Deep leagues only: Austin Rivers, Clippers

Rebounds

Willy Hernangomez, Knicks
Ownership: ESPN – 2%; Yahoo – 6%; CBS – 19%)

Three straight games with double-digit rebounds is a good way to get noticed. The downside here – and this is a big one – is that he received a DNP-CD in the middle of those three games. Worse still, the DNP-CD was in the Knicks' closest contest of the past four, which seems to indicate that he does not yet have the full trust of his coaching staff. But for rebound-needy managers, the good news here still outweighs the bad. Hernangomez averaged 23.0 minutes during those three games, a significant increase over his season average of 14.5. He doesn't have a stable role in the Knicks' rotation, but his role is increasing overall. He has only sat two of the past 21 games. Over his past 13 games, he has at least four rebounds in all but three, and seven or more in seven games.

Other suggestions: Bismack Biyombo, Magic, Terrence Jones, Pelicans
Deep leagues only: Kosta Koufos, Kings

Assists

J.J. Barea, Mavericks
Ownership: ESPN – 11%; Yahoo – 31%; CBS – 46%)

Barea was on the brink of mass ownership when he injured his calf and had to sit out 17 games. Before getting hurt, he averaged 5.4 assists per game, in addition to 16.3 points and 2.0 steals. The mere possibility that he might return to his pre-injury production warrants adding Barea in all formats. And the early returns are promising. In his first night back, he scored 11 points and added four assists, three rebounds, one steal, and one three in just 13 minutes.

Other suggestions: T.J. McConnell, 76ers; Shelvin Mack, Jazz

Steals

Justise Winslow, Heat
Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo – 56%; CBS – 79%)

After playing the first nine games of the season, Winslow suffered a sprained wrist, causing him to miss the next 16. Before the injury, Winslow was averaging 1.4 steals and 36.0 minutes per game. In his three games since returning, he already has six steals. Once he is fully healthy, his workload will probably return towards the mid-30s. He's an inefficient shooter, which limits his scoring, but he also helps in rebounds and assists and occasionally chips in some blocks and threes. His upside is high enough that he can garner wide attention, so the time to grab him may be limited.

Other suggestions: Thabo Sefolosha, Hawks; Patty Mills, Spurs

Blocks

Larry Nance, Lakers
Ownership: ESPN – 7%; Yahoo – 23%; CBS – 21%)

The only reason I'm not writing about John Henson is because I've covered him in this exact space twice already this season. If you need blocks, he's the guy you really want. But I said I'm not talking about him, so I'll settle for Larry Nance. Nance made the news recently for prematurely endingBrook Lopez's life. He's a highlight reel full of dunks. But he's also a good shot blocker, averaging 1.3 per game over his past seven games. His fantasy game has a lot of holes, but he's an exciting player with a lot of upside if he can earn a bigger role in the rotation.

Other suggestions: John Henson, Bucks; Bismack Biyombo, Magic; Willy Hernangomez, Knicks

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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