This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Miami Heat, vs. Dallas Mavericks: The Heat just held a potent Rockets offense to nearly 12 points less than their season average on Tuesday, and now face a Mavs team that's scored the fewest amount of points (95.7) per game this season. They've been even slightly worse on the road (95.5 points per game) and have shot just 43.6 percent away from American Airlines Center.
Offense To Use
San Antonio Spurs, vs. Denver Nuggets: The Spurs are averaging 106.5 points per game at home while shooting 47.8 percent, with the latter figure checking in as the seventh-highest in the league. They've also scored 134 and 122 points in two of their last three home games, and already lit up this same Nuggets squad for 127 points on the road Jan. 5. Denver also enters Thursday with a host of injuries, while giving up the third-most points (111.5) on the road this season.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Mavericks
Second game of a back-to-back: Wizards, Knicks
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Kyrie Irving, CLE vs. PHO ($8,600): The Cavs figure to be particularly locked in coming off an embarrassing 126-91 MLK Day shellacking at the hands of the Warriors, and a rough ending to their Western Conference road swing overall. Kevin Love could also miss Thursday's contest with a sore lower back, which would give Irving even more of a boost in what is already a highly favorable matchup. The All-Star point guard has a whopping 34.1 percent usage rate with Love off the floor this season and has also averaged 41.5 fantasy points over 18 home games this season. The Suns also give up 55.9 fantasy points per game to point guards this season, along with the most actual points (25.3) to the position.
Austin Rivers, LAC vs. MIN ($5,200): Chris Paul will miss several weeks following thumb surgery, presumably providing Rivers with another extended run in the starting lineup. Rivers sported a healthy 21.8 percent usage rate last season when both Paul and Blake Griffin were off the court last season, and the figure stands at an even better 22.8 this season. Rivers has already been mostly outpacing his price tag in recent games, scoring 21.0 to 46.5 fantasy points in his last six contests, and he'll face a Timberwolves defense giving up the eighth-most fantasy points (59.6) over the last five games.
Patty Mills, SA vs. DEN ($3,200): Mills returned from a one-game absence due to a calf injury Tuesday and was back on track, netting 21.25 fantasy points over 19 minutes against the T-Wolves. He draws another enticing matchup Thursday, as the Nuggets surrender the second-most fantasy points (60.0), second-most points (24.9), second-most assists (9.7), fifth-most three-pointers (2.3) and sixth-highest shooting percentage (45.5) to point guards.
LeBron James, CLE vs. PHO ($10,800): For many of the same reasons that Kyrie Irving makes for the top play at point guard, James checks in as the optimal choice at forward Thursday. James' usage checks in at 32.7 percent when Kevin Love is off the court, and the Cavs' power forward is currently 50/50 to play Thursday due to a sore lower back. Even if Love does suit up, James faces a Suns defense giving up the second-most fantasy points (49.6) to small forwards over the last five games, along with the fifth-highest shooting percentage (46.0) to the position on the season. Furthermore, James already went for 43.5 fantasy points against this same Suns squad in the one previous meeting between the teams this season, and he's averaging 51.9 fantasy points over 21 home games this season.
Otto Porter, Jr., WAS at NY ($5,900): Porter exploded for 38.75 fantasy points on Wednesday and has been over 30 fantasy points in four other games over his last 10 as well. Despite the fact that he'll be on his third game in four nights, Porter remains extremely reasonably priced. Plus, he already lit up the Knicks for 39.5 fantasy points in his one previous encounter with them this season.
T.J. Warren, PHO at CLE ($4,000): Warren's price continues to be at its lowest point of the season, and he therefore stands a very good chance of providing a minimum of a 5x return Thursday, even against what should be a healthy dose of LeBron James defense. In fact, the Cavs actually check in dead last against small forwards over the last five games, giving up a whopping 55.4 fantasy points to the position during that stretch, along with the fourth-most (44.0) per game on the season. Meanwhile, although he's been consistently inconsistent since returning from a 13-game absence earlier in the season due to a head injury, Warren's shot has started to fall recently, as he's tallied a 60 percent or better success rate from the field in three of his last four games.
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. DAL ($8,100): The Mavs struggle to defend centers without Andrew Bogut (hamstring) down low, and they've given up the ninth-most fantasy points (55.9) to centers over the last five games. They've also given up the fourth-most rebounds (15.6) and second-highest shooting percentage (56.9) on the season to the position, and Whiteside has averaged 46.9 fantasy points over 18 home games.
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL at MIA ($5,900): Nowitzki figures to draw another start at center, where he'll draw a matchup against a Heat defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points (50.3) on the season to centers, along with the fifth-most rebounds (15.5) and seventh-highest shooting percentage (55.5). Nowitzki has started to heat up after finally enjoying an extended stretch of health, scoring 29.0 to 40.75 fantasy points in the last four games, including a double-double in his last contest.
Willy Hernangomez, NY vs. WAS ($3,200): With Joakim Noah quite possibly missing another game Thursday with his ankle injury, Hernangomez makes for a terrific value play at just $200 away from minimum. He exploded for a season-high 33.25 fantasy points versus the Celtics on Wednesday over just 20 minutes, which followed a 24.25-effort against the Raptors on Sunday. The Wizards have given up a robust 52.5 fantasy points to centers over the last five contests, along with the sixth-highest shooting percentage (55.7) on the season.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
