This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors: These are two units going in opposite directions, as the Hawks' defense has really improved, while the Raptors' offense has fallen off. What makes Toronto especially tough to use is the fact that one player has so much usage. With Kyle Lowry injured, DeMar DeRozan is the only legitimate fantasy option for the Raptors and that makes them a tough team to use for DFS. Atlanta has turned on its defense recently too, allowing 105 or less points in seven of the last 10 games, while ranking 11th in defensive efficiency in that span. DeRozan may very well go off, but the rest of this team is simply too hard to trust in these sort of circumstances.
Offense to Use:
Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets: The Nets are always a good target in DFS, but the Mavericks have become a nice sneaky option to use. In fact, Dallas ranks ninth in offensive efficiency across its last six games, continuing to improve. The Brooklyn defense is a nightmare too, as it is allowing 114 points a game, which is easily the worst mark in the league. The value plays of Dallas are attractive as well, as the Mavericks have no players above $6,400.
Teams on Back-to-Back Set:
First Game: Bucks, Hawks, Hornets, Kings, Magic, Mavericks, Nuggets, Raptors, Timberwolves, Warriors and Wizards
Second Game: None
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
Avery Bradley, BOS at DEN ($5,400): Bradley recently returned from an Achilles' injury and is finally back to playing a full complement of minutes. In fact, Bradley played 30 minutes in his most recent game, as he's seen an increase in playing time in five straight outings. That injury has lowered his price to this friendly number too, as he's a $7,000 talent. The final piece to the puzzle is the matchup, with Denver ranking dead-last in defensive efficiency, while allowing the second most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Yogi Ferrell, DAL vs. BRK ($5,300): Ferrell has taken over starting point guard duties in the absence of Deron Williams, as he's developed into a legitimate starting point guard. Since taking over that role, Ferrell is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game in about 32 minutes of action. It's this matchup that's most tasty though, with Brooklyn allowing the second most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Jeremy Lin, BRK at DAL ($5,000): Lin is in the same circumstance as Bradley, as his price is diminished due to an injury. Much like Bradley, Lin has seen an increase in playing time in four straight games, as he continues to build up his minutes. The form of Lin has been fantastic in those limited minutes too, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Another factor to consider here is the fact that Brook Lopez will be sitting this game out, so that only adds to the value and usage of Lin.
Paul George, IND at MIL ($7,800): George has put this team on his back over recent weeks and this price is not showing that. In fact, George has at least 34 fantasy points in five-straight games, while averaging 43 fantasy points in that span. The most enticing part about using George may be the matchup though, as Milwaukee has allowed the most fantasy points in the NBA to small forwards this season.
Trevor Ariza, HOU at CHI ($4,500): Ariza has been frustrating to own in fantasy this year, but this price is simply too cheap. Not only is Ariza a guarantee for 30-plus minutes, he's still averaging 27 fantasy points a game for the season. That's a ton of production for a $4,500 player and it simply doesn't add up. This matchup is nothing to be scared of either, with Chicago allowing the 11th most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Thaddeus Young, IND at MIL ($4,200): Young is in the same boat as Ariza, as he has far too much upside to be this cheap. Young has proven to be a $7,000 player in the past and his 25 fantasy points a game is way too much for this price. His recent form has been downright horrendous, but a 30 fantasy point game in his most recent outing shows just how good he can be. Milwaukee have also been a terrible defense this season, ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Al Horford, BOS at DEN ($5,600): Horford has been dealing with injuries over recent weeks and it's really hurt his numbers. What it has done is lowered his price to a usable number though, as Horford is one of the best bets to exceed 5X value at just $5,600. Horford has been better than you'd expect too, averaging 32 fantasy points across his last three games, which is only two points below his season average. It's Horford's ability to stuff the stat sheet that makes him most reliable though, as he has a 30 fantasy point floor in this sort of matchup. The Nuggets defense also ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency.
Myles Turner, IND at MIL ($5,400): Despite failing to surpass 27 fantasy points in his last three games, Turner had scored at least 28 fantasy points in his previous eight. It's the price and matchup that make him especially intriguing, as the Bucks surrender the eighth most fantasy points to centers, and Turner is the cheapest he'll be all year.
Clint Capela, HOU at CHI ($5,200): Capela has been outperforming this price tag all season long, and it's a wonder why DraftKings is so slow to react to his play. Not only is he averaging 27 fantasy points a game for the season, Capela is averaging 33 fantasy points across his last seven. That's incredible value for a player barely cracking $5,000 and it's clear he's back to being the full-time center.
