This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
We are in the last weeks of the NBA regular season, so short-term trends are often more predictive than season-long ones because teams are changing the way the play. Some teams, like the Suns and Lakers, have fully committed to a youth movement. The Nets have accepted their lottery lot, but have one veteran player in Brook Lopez who they don't necessarily want to play into the ground. The Pelicans are trying to play their way into the playoffs, and have started finding success around their new twin towers. The Warriors are at the opposite extreme, finally seeming to click on all cylinders as they have re-discovered the art of the blowout. All in all, there are a lot of interesting storylines and value plays, so let's see what we can find.
GUARDS
Tyler Ulis, PHO at BOS ($19): Ulis has scored between 34.0 and 41.1 fantasy points in four of his five games since taking over as the starting point guard, numbers that outperform his price solidly. On Friday, he plays a Celtics team that has the only point guard in the league about the same size as Ulis (Isaiah Thomas).
D'Angelo Russell, LAL vs MIN ($27): Russell has moved back into the starting lineup, playing next to Jordan Clarkson, and through two games the results have been explosive. He had a career-high 40 points, including seven 3-pointers, and six assists against the Cavaliers, then followed that up with a solid 34.4 fantasy points against the Clippers. He now faces a Timberwolves unit that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to shooting guards over the last five games.
Guard to Avoid
Stephen Curry, GS vs SAC ($51): Curry is a top-level player and the Kings are a terrible team; there-in lies the potential problem. The Warriors, with the way they've played this week, should blow out the Kings, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to point guards over the last 10 games, but the fourth-most to shooting guards. For the Warriors, Klay Thompson has been hot lately, averaging roughly the same output as Curry. Put that all together with Curry's price being more than a fourth of the salary cap, and he becomes a risk. There is a high likelihood that Curry plays well but that he doesn't get enough shots or play enough minutes to score $51 worth of fantasy points.
FORWARDS
Paul George, IND vs DEN ($40): George earns this spot partially on the strength of a weak small forward group on Friday's slate. His price is a bit higher than desired, but he has scored between 42.1 and 55.5 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. On Friday, he faces a Nuggets defense that has been average against small forwards over both the season and the last 10 games.
Marquese Chriss, PHO at BOS ($13): Chriss had 23 points and 11 rebounds Thursday, giving him his second game with at least 40 fantasy points in his last five. He has scored between 25.9 and 42.7 fantasy points in five straight, and on Friday faces a Celtics defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards over the last 10 games.
Forward to Avoid
Andrew Wiggins, MIN at LAL ($34): Wiggins has the third-highest price among healthy small forwards, with a price that is about 1/6 of the salary cap. However, he has not scored more than 32.8 fantasy points this month, including a low of 17.3. That level of production just doesn't warrant his price, and though he obviously has higher upside, his recent games make him too much of a risk, even against a weak Lakers defense.
CENTER
Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs DET ($30): Vucevic has scored between 45.4 and 47.4 fantasy points in four of his last five games, including each of his last three. He has a tougher matchup Friday against the Pistons, but his scoring versatility should allow him to produce from areas on the court where Andre Drummond isn't comfortable defending.
Al Horford, BOS vs PHO ($25): Horford has scored between 37.1 and 51.1 fantasy points in five straight games, as he's playing some of his best basketball of the season. On Friday, he faces a Suns defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers over the last 10 games.
Center to Avoid
Brook Lopez, BKN at WAS ($27): The Nets will be playing their seventh game in the last 10 days, and they are on the road on the second night of a back-to-back. While no announcement or suggestion has been made, this seems like the kind of game that Lopez could sit out. Lopez has six DNPs this season, five of which came on the road, and all six within periods when the Nets had a lot of games in a short period. If he does play, he'll face an average Wizards defense that has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to centers this season.
