RB Rankings

McCaffrey was the consensus RB1 and 1.01 overall fantasy pick from 2019 to 2021, but the collapse of the Panthers offense and injuries in the 2020 and 2021 seasons had McCaffrey's ranking up for review after two dud years. That didn't last long. Not only has McCaffrey's health cooperated the last two years, he now has the enviable privilege of playing in a top-three offense. To switch from the Panthers to the high-octane 49ers offense took McCaffrey – already a 1.01 pick in fantasy – and made his numbers even better. Even with sky-high usage the last two years (516 carries, 152 receptions) McCaffrey's efficiency is at a league-leading level (5.0 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per target). Volume is normally a slight downward pressure on efficiency – the more a defense expects you, the better they tend to defend you – but in the 49ers offense McCaffrey has been unstoppable no matter how aggressively defenses try to slow him. McCaffrey's previous injury troubles raise the understandable fear of similar injuries occurring in the future, but injuries can happen to any running back. Rather than fretting over McCaffrey's past injuries, the more useful frame would be the fact that injuries are likely the only way another running back might catch McCaffrey in the fantasy rankings. That's a statement that would apply to very few running backs throughout history, and the simple fact is a talent like McCaffrey in a scheme like San Francisco's yields an almost perfect projection.

Hall's career has largely been defined by starts and stops due to his 2022 ACL tear and the constant shenanigans of the Jets offense over the past two years, yet the verdict is clear: Hall is a star. This is a player capable of finishing as the top fantasy running back multiple times before his career concludes. That would be particularly true if Hall could just get some good luck for once. If Aaron Rodgers can make a return to 100 percent health and if the Jets offensive line could have better durability luck then 2024 might finally be the season where Hall is truly unleashed. When entertaining upside scenarios with Hall it's difficult to rule anything out – he's capable of leading the league in rushing production, yet his 76 receptions from 2023 imply he can also lead NFL running backs in receiving production. Perhaps both in the same season is on the table? Such a memorable season would be impossible to foresee, but Hall really has the stuff to make it happen if the stars align.

Taylor's 2023 season was a bit of a circus at first, and there might have been a little rust as a result of the holdout/lockout feud that kept Taylor out of training camp and the first four weeks of the season, but once the star runner settled in Taylor began to resemble himself again. From Week 7 onward Taylor began to meet his customary high standards again, running for 704 yards and seven touchdowns on 155 carries (4.5 YPC) in eight games. The rushing average was still a bit low – Taylor averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons – but overall it was a strong showing in a struggling offense. Fellow running back Zack Moss left the team for Cincinnati in free agency, so Taylor might have a higher share of the overall Colts backfield usage than he did when after Moss logged 504 snaps, 183 carries and 37 targets in 2023. Although Taylor will always be known as a run-first running back, the departure of Moss and the three-year, $42 million extension Taylor signed gives the Colts reason to give Taylor as much work as possible, including plenty of passing downs. The ankle troubles of previous years left Taylor alone in 2023 – it was only a thumb injury that cost him Weeks 13 through 15 – so Taylor's injury situation should grade better going into this year than last.

Tyler Allgeier is a good running back, but it wasn't reasonable for Robinson to only see 214 carries to Allgeier's 186 carries in 2023. Atlanta team ownership presumably agreed, because previous head coach Arthur Smith was fired and the new coach Raheem Morris likely has an understanding that Robinson's inconsistent 2023 usage was a big reason Smith was fired. If Robinson's rushing workload increases then it could hold explosive results for his fantasy value, especially with Kirk Cousins arriving at quarterback. Robinson is one of the league's leading pass-catching producers at running back (86 targets last year) yet his efficiency numbers were badly dragged down by Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Robinson will likely improve on the 67.4 percent catch rate and 5.8 yards per target figure he had last year, and if that occurs at the same time as a rushing production surge then Robinson would have a clear path to finish the 2024 season not just as a fantasy RB1 in general, but maybe even the top fantasy back in the entire NFL.

Williams will be an interesting case study after his improbable 2023 breakout season, one where he ran for nearly 100 yards per game while scoring 15 touchdowns (12 rushing, three receiving) in just 12 games. Coach Sean McVay values Williams' pass-blocking abilities to the point that Williams almost never left the field, playing an average of 55 snaps per game. It's an incredibly heavy workload for a running back listed at 5-foot-9, 195 pounds, especially one who ran only a 4.65-second 40, and despite the excellent returns it still feels like Williams' best season might have already occurred. Not just because his stats are due for general regression, but because at around 195 pounds Williams has already had trouble holding up physically. He missed much of his 2022 rookie offseason due to a broken foot before suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 1, and in 2023 he missed five weeks (four games) with another ankle injury. The reason you don't see 195-pound backs taking 20 carries per game in the NFL is because it's very physically difficult to do, but if Williams can manage to hold up going forward then his fantasy upside is already well demonstrated. McVay wants to give Williams all the work he can handle, so the only question is what that number might be.