Historical Fantasy Draft Pick Chart: Computing Draft Pick Trade Value

We've had a lot of questions from callers on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today (which airs 11 am to 2 pm ET on XM 147 / Sirius 211) about trading draft picks. I put together the following charts on the historical value of draft slots based on research I did for a story last year about the value of taking receivers in the first round. I'm remiss I didn't post this last year. I haven't updated the data to include the 2009 season (it uses data from 1998 to 2008), but I don't think last year changed much. You shouldn't take these numbers as gospel, it just gives you a general feel for the expected worth of a draft pick.

I haven't seen a similar comparison online (if you see one email me at peter@rotowire.com that uses similar historical values). I've seen charts, like this one at ESPN, that show the value of players in the NFL Draft. That chart includes non-fantasy players like offensive lineman and defensive players, but it's also good for comparison.

Now for the fine print. I used average draft position (ADP) from the thousands of leagues that draft on MyFantasyLeague.
I used the following league parameters in the math: 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and 1 K. The data below does not include any defense (which I always draft with one of my last two picks anyway. Their performance is very random year to year and the spread between the top producers and bottom is just too low. Plus you're probably not going to use this chart to see what kind of kickers or defenses you'll get in a trade. Of course, the exception is if you have a league that has a lot of points for team defense or IPDs. But I hate those leagues anyway - fantasy is about individual players!). There would be 84 players taken in this hypothetical league, but listed the picks out 20 rounds just so you can see the historical comparison.

I used this typical fantasy league scoring system: (4 points passing TD, 6 points rushing or receiving TD, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving and no points gained or lost for interceptions, turnovers or receptions)

VBD = Value Based Drafting. This number is the number of fantasy points above the replacement level (in this example, there are 24 running backs, so VBD = value over the 25th-placed running back in fantasy points). I also included the average VBD of each position at each draft slot (0* = no player drafted).

There's a lot of variance in these numbers. For example, there have only been four QBs taken on average in the top five picks (ADP of 5 or better). Two of those four quarterbacks went down with injury, so the small sample size says a QB taken in the top five is a bust 50 percent of the time. There's similar small sample sizes in each pick as there may be only a handful of each position taken at any one specific draft slot. So don't go too crazy thinking historically it's terrible to take a RB with the 23rd overall pick (VBD = 5).

To minimize the variance, I averaged the two picks above and two picks below to come with a "Trade Pick Value." It's very plausible that most leagues went +/- two players compared to average, so this helps smooth out some of the variance.

I also added in a column on average age for each draft slot for fun. I have no clue if it has any relevance, but it's interesting that top picks are usually younger and middle round picks are older before the average age gets younger again in the late rounds.

A real world example of this would be Maurice Jones Drew's trade in the Sirius XM Fantasy Football Celebrity Draft. MJD was taken with the third pick. MJD the fantasy owner had the 8th pick in the first round and made a trade for himself (yes, this gets confusing). MDJ agreed to trade his 8th pick for the himself and swap second round picks while throwing in a fourth-round pick as well. More specifically, he traded the 8th, 16th and 41st picks for the 3rd, 22nd and 209th pick. The value of the 8th, 16th and 41st picks = 603 "Trade Pick Value" points. The value of the 3rd, 22nd and 209th pick (MJD got a last round pick to complete the deal) = 477 points. So MJD paid a steep price to trade for himself. Most of the value lost was throwing in the fourth-round pick. The Sirius XM draft starts three WRs, so it's not a perfect fit. But it shows how you can use this as a guide.

Rnd	Pick	Trade Pick Value		Fantasy Pts (AVG)	Avg. RB VBD	Avg. WR VBD	Avg. QB VBD	Avg. Age
1	1	255		282	147	0*	0*	26.8
1	2	240		256	132	0*	4	25.6
1	3	241		227	74	0*	28	26.5
1	4	231		196	52	55	-61	27.3
1	5	215		242	96	75	38	28.2
1	6	215		234	96	65	64	25.7
1	7	218		176	42	55	-64	27.2
1	8	219		229	92	76	78	26.0
1	9	217		207	49	56	79	27.3
1	10	220		249	102	123	97	25.4
1	11	212		225	70	77	135	26.2
1	12	214		190	53	83	2	27.7
2	13	205		189	55	58	48	27.9
2	14	194		218	109	109	-54	28.2
2	15	197		202	85	53	-8	25.3
2	16	202		171	57	45	0*	27.9
2	17	202		205	68	3	58	25.9
2	18	194		216	75	29	46	28.5
2	19	203		217	38	64	150	28.7
2	20	202		161	40	31	-15	26.9
2	21	197		218	59	36	41	26.3
2	22	182		198	71	67	-47	28.5
2	23	179		191	5	49	26	27.7
2	24	168		145	27	16	28	27.4
3	25	155		141	10	-27	-11	28.6
3	26	151		163	18	33	40	29.7
3	27	161		135	5	4	-7	26.7
3	28	156		174	62	49	-76	26.7
3	29	158		191	83	43	44	27.2
3	30	166		116	8	0	-173	28.8
3	31	161		173	43	18	-1	29.7
3	32	151		175	37	17	26	28.3
3	33	163		151	14	23	-40	28.9
3	34	154		140	60	6	-106	27.9
3	35	150		176	90	14	-28	29.3
3	36	144		128	23	-2	-204	25.7
4	37	153		158	26	36	0	28.5
4	38	158		121	14	-29	1	26.6
4	39	168		182	74	22	83	27.3
4	40	175		205	81	69	60	28.0
4	41	182		173	121	27	-5	26.4
4	42	177		197	68	-18	72	26.6
4	43	172		153	-4	13	67	28.9
4	44	165		159	43	19	0	27.8
4	45	157		178	28	66	57	26.4
4	46	158		137	35	24	0	25.3
4	47	148		160	0	22	-5	28.4
4	48	135		157	37	10	23	28.1
5	49	142		110	6	-16	0	26.7
5	50	148		114	2	-27	-63	26.0
5	51	143		168	30	21	6	28.5
5	52	154		192	47	70	-29	27.0
5	53	158		131	35	-26	-60	27.0
5	54	147		166	56	-27	48	27.8
5	55	142		132	52	-32	7	28.5
5	56	150		115	5	18	66	28.9
5	57	141		165	49	29	50	28.4
5	58	141		172	94	3	28	26.8
5	59	141		123	66	-1	0	28.9
5	60	142		128	7	7	-73	27.4
6	61	139		119	-31	-3	76	29.5
6	62	139		169	93	8	19	28.2
6	63	136		157	38	0	3	27.6
6	64	147		121	-20	0	-24	28.2
6	65	143		116	24	34	-87	28.6
6	66	139		170	16	34	22	26.5
6	67	136		152	1	-38	47	26.3
6	68	135		136	-16	39	51	27.7
6	69	120		106	5	10	-122	25.3
6	70	111		112	-2	27	0	29.1
6	71	113		92	-12	5	0	30.2
6	72	114		110	22	9	-167	26.3
7	73	117		147	69	-21	41	27.7
7	74	119		109	-8	32	-158	26.3
7	75	124		125	51	-14	-91	26.8
7	76	128		105	23	-9	-56	26.1
7	77	131		136	-1	3	-73	28.9
7	78	131		165	-40	16	-23	29.0
7	79	133		126	-31	11	-66	29.4
7	80	134		122	-17	-16	52	28.0
7	81	120		115	41	-14	-86	28.0
7	82	120		142	43	3	-108	24.6
7	83	122		93	-49	15	-58	28.2
7	84	131		130	-65	11	44	28.9
8	85	129		131	137	7	-16	26.3
8	86	132		161	16	98	-17	26.4
8	87	135		132	4	-8	-9	27.3
8	88	132		105	24	1	0	28.0
8	89	125		148	12	-34	-2	28.2
8	90	123		115	77	16	-85	27.8
8	91	129		125	-6	-13	59	26.4
8	92	122		124	-19	13	21	27.4
8	93	125		132	82	-32	16	28.1
8	94	120		115	19	-23	-18	27.2
8	95	115		132	-26	-1	55	28.4
8	96	114		97	-46	23	31	26.8
9	97	107		100	-32	-23	4	26.6
9	98	101		126	-83	19	14	29.9
9	99	115		80	-15	49	-263	27.6
9	100	112		102	-16	-9	-34	27.4
9	101	106		167	46	2	1	27.3
9	102	109		86	-81	-6	-166	27.2
9	103	115		95	37	-35	-52	28.8
9	104	100		97	-38	9	-54	24.6
9	105	109		133	37	-7	-104	27.2
9	106	113		89	-13	-49	-163	28.8
9	107	124		132	-16	-48	-23	27.1
9	108	118		115	-100	14	10	26.7
10	109	119		150	10	34	-28	25.1
10	110	114		106	51	-32	0	28.4
10	111	108		95	-36	12	73	25.3
10	112	95		106	-54	51	-40	28.0
10	113	92		84	-2	-4	0	26.3
10	114	94		82	-4	-4	-104	30.3
10	115	102		94	0	-16	-102	27.9
10	116	100		102	-4	-41	-117	28.0
10	117	109		147	-1	2	51	27.8
10	118	106		77	-19	-11	-53	25.7
10	119	106		124	46	-34	40	28.1
10	120	98		78	-13	-59	-93	27.1
11	121	105		104	49	-8	-109	25.6
11	122	98		109	-90	-2	-55	25.3
11	123	94		111	52	-4	79	28.8
11	124	92		88	-54	-38	-91	25.9
11	125	81		56	12	-81	0	29.1
11	126	77		96	-79	31	0	26.2
11	127	84		52	-60	-92	127	29.7
11	128	89		94	-7	-12	-80	27.4
11	129	91		123	7	-27	-53	25.5
11	130	105		81	61	-30	-186	26.0
11	131	103		105	29	-5	-60	27.4
11	132	95		122	0	-16	-12	27.0
12	133	99		84	-12	-4	-125	27.4
12	134	101		82	0	-40	-59	26.5
12	135	92		100	-1	-7	-121	29.3
12	136	92		115	99	1	-70	26.0
12	137	89		79	-43	71	-68	28.7
12	138	84		84	22	-37	-127	26.1
12	139	75		69	0	-52	-68	29.5
12	140	71		72	31	-68	-160	27.6
12	141	75		72	-78	-57	0	25.8
12	142	86		61	-17	-68	-176	27.8
12	143	93		99	-2	-41	9	27.1
12	144	98		125	8	-48	-36	27.1
13	145	100		106	0	-26	-75	31.6
13	146	94		101	-27	-24	-99	26.1
13	147	86		70	-47	-5	-117	27.8
13	148	77		70	15	-73	-87	28.7
13	149	76		83	-53	-20	-89	26.9
13	150	78		59	-35	-30	-222	24.8
13	151	79		98	-19	34	-26	25.7
13	152	73		78	-68	-55	-71	28.3
13	153	80		77	0	-39	-124	29.4
13	154	78		54	4	-56	-225	26.2
13	155	76		95	1	-8	50	28.7
13	156	78		84	-56	-32	-63	25.1
14	157	82		72	-25	-40	143	28.2
14	158	78		85	0	-31	-17	27.0
14	159	78		76	-5	-10	-137	26.5
14	160	74		75	-17	-36	-89	27.1
14	161	74		80	-59	27	-91	25.4
14	162	73		52	-65	-66	-104	26.2
14	163	73		87	146	-31	-83	31.9
14	164	73		70	-18	-26	0	26.7
14	165	77		75	-43	-36	148	27.5
14	166	73		83	-20	-9	-9	28.9
14	167	78		70	4	-24	-129	27.8
14	168	76		65	-82	-14	0	25.3
15	169	73		97	14	-10	-94	27.2
15	170	79		63	-63	27	-210	28.1
15	171	76		71	-51	-22	-67	26.2
15	172	76		97	-46	27	-101	27.5
15	173	74		52	-99	-58	153	25.4
15	174	77		96	-30	38	-102	27.5
15	175	64		54	-56	-44	0	25.9
15	176	66		86	-7	-22	-182	28.3
15	177	57		34	-3	-27	-255	25.9
15	178	60		62	-32	-45	0	26.3
15	179	55		50	-96	-51	156	27.9
15	180	62		67	0	-98	-13	28.6
16	181	59		63	-57	-17	-57	26.9
16	182	61		67	-51	-47	158	26.2
16	183	58		48	0	-63	-91	26.1
16	184	59		61	-130	-8	-271	27.5
16	186	58		50	-64	-7	-70	27.1
16	187	61		69	-56	-84	-4	27.8
16	188	60		63	-52	-49	0	27.5
16	189	60		64	-7	-63	-76	25.7
16	190	54		56	-104	-47	-141	28.1
16	191	52		49	-11	-56	-254	27.4
16	192	48		41	-86	28	-143	28.2
17	193	49		53	-1	-46	-183	27.4
17	194	51		41	-60	-64	-236	27.8
17	195	60		64	4	-47	0	26.4
17	196	59		57	-65	0	-172	27.0
17	197	62		86	-19	3	-87	27.5
17	198	62		48	-74	-20	0	26.1
17	199	60		56	-40	-75	-264	27.1
17	200	58		65	-45	-73	-198	27.4
17	201	61		47	0	-87	169	29.1
17	202	60		73	-48	29	-143	26.1
17	203	59		66	38	-30	0	28.1
17	204	57		52	-21	3	-220	30.3
18	205	53		59	-61	22	0	28.6
18	206	50		37	-91	70	0	25.9
18	207	49		49	-77	-30	-44	27.7
18	208	47		50	-94	-80	-141	25.9
18	209	54		48	-104	-60	0	26.4
18	210	52		49	-63	0	-213	25.3
18	211	55		75	-62	-71	33	26.4
18	212	60		40	-45	-80	-217	26.6
18	213	66		62	-52	0	-220	29.4
18	214	67		72	-15	-84	-154	28.3
18	215	73		83	-30	-62	-144	26.7
18	216	75		77	0	-49	-110	26.5
19	217	74		71	-96	-73	-24	26.3
19	218	70		75	13	-63	0	26.4
19	219	67		65	0	-57	0	27.0
19	220	66		64	-23	-83	-124	28.9
19	221	64		61	-25	-57	-234	26.8
19	222	66		67	-46	0	-155	28.3
19	223	66		65	-17	-48	0	25.1
19	224	68		76	0	-14	-28	26.4
19	225	70		60	-59	-14	0	28.4
19	226	68		73	-60	-1	0	26.7
19	227	69		78	-22	-26	0	27.4
19	228	69		53	-56	-41	0	26.3
20	229	75		83	0	-20	0	29.0
20	230	74		59	0	-14	-187	24.8
20	231	74		101	-26	0	-2	26.0
20	232	73		73	0	0	0	27.7
20	233	71		55	-48	-14	0	24.7
20	234	65		76	0	-12	0	26.4
20	235	62		51	-57	0	0	25.5
20	236	63		72	0	-41	0	25.9
20	237	61		58	0	-107	0	27.4
20	238	62		60	-50	0	0	29.0
20	239	66		66	-56	0	0	26.9
20	240	54		54	0	0	0	25.2