East Coast Offense: 2008 East Coast Offense-Week 10

East Coast Offense

By Christopher Liss
RotoWire Managing Editor

NFL MVP

We had a good discussion of the NFL MVP race on the RotoWire Blog - a discussion that also got me thinking that Kurt Warner, one of the frontrunners through nine weeks, might have had a better career than Brett Favre.

You can read the entire argument by clicking the link, but a couple interesting numbers: Warner's career YPA is 8.1 (That's barely lower than Tom Brady's YPA from 2007! Incidentally, Peyton Manning's career YPA is 7.7, and Favre's just 7.0. Warner's career QB rating is 94.2, Favre's 85.8)

In any event, Warner's in the running for his third award with fellow frontrunners Drew Brees and Clinton Portis. Let's evaluate the candidates:

Player	Team Record	Key Stats
Kurt Warner	5-3	2431 passing yards, 16 TD, 6 INT, 104.2 QB rating, 8.2 YPA
Drew Brees	4-4	2563 passing yards, 15 TD, 7 INT, 101.6 QB rating, 8.4 YPA
Clinton Portis	6-3	995 rush yards, 150 rec. yards, 5.0 YPC, 7 TD

A few things to keep in mind - none of these teams is playing that well, and it's hard to win MVP unless your team gets a first-round bye in the playoffs.

How about a few sleepers:

Player	Team Record	Key Stats
Chris Johnson	8-0	715 rush yards, 164 rec. yards, 4.9 YPC, 6 TD
Philip Rivers	3-5	2038 pass yards, 19 TD, 6 INT, 107.8 QB rating, 8.7 YPA
Justin Tuck	7-1	8.5 sacks, 26 tackles, 1 INT, 1 TD
Steve Smith	6-2	33 rec., 613 rec. yards, 18.6 YPC, 4 TD

With Michael Strahan retiring and Osi Umenyiora going down in training camp, and the 7-1 Giants arguably the best team in the league to date, I think Tuck has actually been the most valuable player. I don't think the QBs (the most important players on their teams) have had enough team success. Johnson gets consideration because he's been
A few things to keep in mind - none of these teams is playing that well, and it's hard to win MVP unless your team gets a first-round bye in the playoffs.

How about a few sleepers:

Player	Team Record	Key Stats
Chris Johnson	8-0	715 rush yards, 164 rec. yards, 4.9 YPC, 6 TD
Philip Rivers	3-5	2038 pass yards, 19 TD, 6 INT, 107.8 QB rating, 8.7 YPA
Justin Tuck	7-1	8.5 sacks, 26 tackles, 1 INT, 1 TD
Steve Smith	6-2	33 rec., 613 rec. yards, 18.6 YPC, 4 TD

With Michael Strahan retiring and Osi Umenyiora going down in training camp, and the 7-1 Giants arguabl

With Michael Strahan retiring and Osi Umenyiora going down in training camp, and the 7-1 Giants arguably the best team in the league to date, I think Tuck has actually been the most valuable player. I don't think the QBs (the most important players on their teams) have had enough team success. Johnson gets consideration because he's been such an impact player on the 8-0 team, Portis is the one player who stands out statistically at his position and is on a winning team, and Smith is on a 6-2 team, and has amassed those stats in just six games. By season's end, he'll have huge numbers if he stays healthy. And Rivers has had a fantastic year, and the Chargers will probably win that division even if they have to do it at 8-8. But my vote goes to Tuck at this point.

Back to Work

I don't want to get too political, but I'm ecstatic not only that Obama won, but that I can get back to obsessing exclusively over sports. I think I wasted more time on the election than people with real jobs waste on fantasy sports. It was a sickness.

Tony Kornheiser Rant - Part IV

During the Monday Night game, Kornheiser talked about how Aaron Rodgers came into the season as the player under the most scrutiny, and Jim Zorn as the most scrutinized coach. Not only is this totally arbitrary - did Zorn have more scrutiny than Bill Belichick after a shocking loss in the Super Bowl, for example? Did Rodgers have more scrutiny than Brett Favre who was the central figure in the drama and was expected to carry the Jets? - but also, it revealed his mindset. The unknown is the one under scrutiny. On established stars, he can't help but heap the praise.

Kornheiser is a keeper of the status quo. (He also made essentially the same point between the Colts and Titans the previous week - in his world, the undefeated Titans who are playing great have the pressure, even though the Colts are in danger of missing the playoffs). He's essentially a marketer of sports' name brands. He's backward looking and tries to concoct narratives about the game based on what happened in the past. He has no vision and offers little insight. In this respect, he's like most of the blowhards on sports talk radio (and talk radio in general) - they preach to the base - reinforcing the things we already think, trafficking the well-worn grooves in our brains. But the action on the field is always new, so to understand it, we have to do exactly the opposite. Instead of spinning yesterday's news to fit a narrative, we need to consider what's possible going forward so we can be there already when it happens.

Things to Take Away From Week 9

• Aaron Rodgers has a great arm
  
  Maybe everyone else knew this already, but watching the Packers-Titans game Sunday, I saw him throw a perfect downfield bomb to Greg Jennings (which he dropped) and then an absolute bullet to Donald Driver over the middle on the next play. I think I'd take him over Jay Cutler if I were starting a team.
  

  
  

• The Colts and Pats aren't half the teams they used to be
  
  That Sunday night game was almost unwatchably boring. The highlight for me was when John Madden and Al Michaels noted the lack of penalties in the game and praised both teams for being so smart. I thought: "Man, imagine how bad they'd be if they made more mistakes!"
  

  
  

• The Redskins need to open the playbook
  
  They might make the playoffs, but that team won't do any damage unless they can do more than hand off or dink and dunk the ball. I realize Santana Moss was banged up, but you still have to take shots, even if the quarterback has to roll out and buy time that way.
  

  
  

• The Broncos have major problems
  
  After getting embarrassed in New England on Monday night, then having a bye week to address weaknesses, that the Broncos couldn't muster a better showing than a nine-point home loss to the Dolphins is troubling. Of course, they got jobbed on an 80-yard TD pass to Brandon Marshall that came back on a ticky-tack offensive PI call, but the Dolphins outplayed them for most of the game in any event.
  

  
  

• Torry Holt isn't dead yet
  
  Holt had a bad drop, but still wound up with six catches for 58 yards and a touchdown Sunday. He might have lost a step, but when you have a veteran former star who's still starting every week, you should expect him to produce before long. And Holt is only 32, which isn't especially old for a wide receiver.
  

  
  

Things to watch for in Week 10

• Will Brady Quinn get the Cleveland offense going?
  
  He's got a great matchup against Denver, and even though he hasn't played much, being a second-year player rather than a rookie is a big difference. (Aaron Rodgers hadn't seen much game action, either, but his years of experience on the sidelines, in camp and in practice were enough).
  

  
  

• Will the Jaguars lose to an 0-8 team for the second week in a row?
  
  If that happens, I'd bet it's the first time in NFL history.
  

  
  

• Can the Giants win in Philadelphia?
  
  The Giants have played well so far, but Eli Manning hasn't been particularly sharp the last few games, and much of their early season schedule was easy. A win in Philadelphia (coupled with the Pittsburgh win two weeks ago) would cement their status as the league's top team.
  

  
  

• Will four more rookie running backs secure prominent roles?
  
  Already, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton are focal points for their teams offenses, and this week Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice could all join them. Hightower is the surest bet, but Torain doesn't have much competition for the job, Charles will have it to himself for this week at least and Rice could supplant a banged-up Willis McGahee for good any week now.
  

Beating the Book

The Bills let us down last week, putting us at 7-2 in forum. We're 70-55-5 overall.

Chiefs +15.5 at Chargers

We take mostly underdogs in our column, but sometimes we like a favorite that on its face makes no sense. The Chargers are 3-5, so what business do they have laying such a monstrous number? And the Chiefs have played well the last two weeks, nearly beating both the Jets and the Bucs. But the Book is begging us to take KC, and we're going to do the opposite. Back the Chargers.

Chargers 34 - 16

We were 6-10 in this forum last year, but 127-120 on the season overall. From 1999-2007 we're 1184-1018 (53.8%, not including ties).

The full article comes out on Thursday morning.

Surviving Week 10

We squeaked by with the Bears last week, but a win is a win. For survivor purposes, you're almost better off not watching the game.

This week, we're going with San Diego who should roll after the bye week at home against Kansas City. If you've used the Chargers, we'd recommend the Cardinals at home against the Niners on Monday night. We give the Chargers an 88 percent chance to win this game, and reserve the right to change our mind on Thursday when the full article comes out.

Article first appeared 11/5/08