Last week, the slate came easy to me, and I went 6-10, while this week, I had a very hard time choosing a single best bet, so maybe that bodes well. I also went a little insane picking upsets this week with six dogs winning outright.
My best bet was the Titans - chosen on Tuesday - and that line has since moved in my favor down to three. (And it really made no sense at 4.5 in the first place). If I had to pick another couple that stand out, I'd say the Eagles, Jaguars and maybe the Raiders.
Saints -6.5 at Panthers
The Saints look like one of the league's top three or four teams so far, but I have to take the home dog in a division rivalry now that Carolina has an offense. Back the Panthers.
Saints 27 - 23
Eagles -2 at Bills
At 1-3, the Eagles are a desperate animal, but they can't stop the run, and they're playing without their best pass rusher, Trent Cole. Still, I can't help but feel they'll overwhelm the Bills and pick off Ryan Fitzpatrick a couple times as he attempts a comeback. Back Philly.
Eagles 33 - 24
Seahawks +10 at Giants
The Giants typically throttle teams like this at home, but Seattle isn't that bad now that Sidney Rice is back and Tarvaris Jackson is looking more comfortable. This is probably the right line, but I'll take Seattle as the Giants have a letdown after two dramatic road wins. Back the Seahawks.
Giants 24 - 19
Bengals +1 at Jaguars
Most people despise the Jaguars, but they're at home, playing a winnable game and laying just one point. Sell Cincy high after its win over the Bills. Back Jacksonville.
Jaguars 19 - 17
Chiefs +1 at Colts
The Colts seemed to play a close game against the Bucs on Monday night, but were it not for a couple fluke plays and some penalties, it would have been a blowout. The Chiefs look like an actual team again, and I think they'll take this one in Indy. Back Kansas City.
Chiefs 20 - 17
Titans +4.5 at Steelers
Based on how these teams have played so far this year, this line makes no sense. The Steelers are 2-2 after barely beating Indy and handling Seattle at home, while the Titans are 3-1, including an easy win over the otherwise unbeaten Ravens. At most Tennessee should be getting three, which makes me think this is a trap, since everyone's going to be on the Titans this week. Still, sometimes you have to do the obvious. Back the Titans who win outright.
Titans 23 - 20
Cardinals +2 at Vikings
I keep backing the Vikings, and while they always lose, at least they cover every other game. I'll stay with it against a Cardinals team that typically doesn't travel well and isn't that good. Back Minnesota.
Vikings 24 - 20
Raiders +5.5 at Texans
The loss of Andre Johnson makes this a slugfest, and both teams are equipped for that, though Houston even more so than Oakland. Still, I expect this to be a close game, and the five and a half could make a difference. Back the Raiders.
Raiders 21 - 20
Buccaneers +3 at 49ers
The Bucs strike me as the better team, but it looks like the sharps were all over San Francisco - at least until the line went all the way to three. Now that it's at three, I'll stick with Tampa. Back the Bucs.
Buccaneers 23 - 20
Jets +9.5 at Patriots
The Jets looked awful against a top defense in Baltimore last week, but that was a nightmare matchup for them. Against the soft Pats defense and with Nick Mangold possibly back, I expect the Jets to be in this game until the very end. Back New York.
Patriots 24 - 23
Chargers -4 at Broncos
The Chargers haven't put teams away this year, and with Antonio Gates out, their offense hasn't been quite as crisp as in previous seasons. Kyle Orton is still an above-average quarterback, and I think the Broncos will stick around. Back Denver.
Broncos 31 - 30
Packers -6 at Falcons
I'm not a big Falcons backer, but they're far better at home, and now's the time to buy them low and sell Green Bay high. While the Packers annihilated them last year in the playoffs, the Falcons are better built to shoot it out, and Green Bay's pass defense has taken a big step back. Back Atlanta.
Packers 34 - 30
Bears +5.5 at Lions
The Lions are a good story, and Calvin Johnson is unstoppable. But they were lucky to beat Minnesota and very lucky to beat Dallas. Give me the Bears who will get up for this game against their undefeated division rival on Monday night. Back Chicago.
Bears 27 - 24
We were 6-10 last week to put us at 31-31-2 on the season. From 1999-2010 we've gone 1565-1387 (53%, not including ties).
You can follow me on Twitter at @Chris_Liss